NFL Week 6- Top Three ‘Point Spread’ Plays
The odds makers have done a good job at keeping the lines sharp this season and last week was no exception. Seven favorites and six underdogs each won against the spread and seven home teams and six road teams did the same. We cashed on Oakland’s straight-up win over Houston as a six-point road underdog and benefitted from an early spread of 9.5 points on the Jets (this line actually closed at 7.5 points on most books). The lone setback of the week was New Orleans, as it could not cover the 6.5 points against Carolina.
SportsBook Lists has been back at the grindstone to mine out the value in this week’s lines, so here are the top three point spread plays for Week 6 in the NFL.
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San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (-6)
The 49ers have opened up an early two-game lead in the NFC West with a surprising 4-1 SU start (4-0-1 ATS) that includes a 24-23 come-from-behind victory over Philadelphia as a 9.5-point road underdog and a 48-3 romp over Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point home favorite in the past two weeks.
The Lions are the ‘talk of the town’ after a 5-0 SU start (4-0-1 ATS) that has them tied with Green Bay for the lead in the NFC North. Detroit’s run includes two dramatic comebacks against Minnesota and Dallas to go along with a solid 24-13 victory over Chicago as a 6.5-point home favorite this past Monday night in prime time.
Both teams have done well in the role as underdogs, thus tipping the scales to San Francisco in this matchup. The 49ers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of more than 3.5 points, while the Lions are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games as a favorite of 3.5 points or more.
Prediction: Detroit 23 San Francisco 20
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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
Carolina has just one win on the year against four losses, but it has covered in its last four games behind rookie quarterback Cam Newton and a Panthers’ offense that can suddenly put points on the board. It is ranked 15th in the league in scoring with an average of 23.2 points a game after finishing ranked last in 2010 with an average of 12.2 points.
This week is shaping up as a win for Atlanta based on the fact that it has yet to win or lose two games in-a-row this season. The Falcons are 2-3 SU (1-4 ATS) and coming off a 24-14 loss to Green Bay as six-point home underdogs.
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against the Panthers and 10-3-2 ATS in its last 15 games against them at home. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six games as well.
Prediction: Atlanta 28 Carolina 23
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Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Washington Redskins
Philadelphia has nowhere to go but up after a dreadful 1-4 start both SU and ATS. The Eagles’ wounds have been, for the most part, self-inflicted with costly mistakes, untimely penalties, and a turnover ratio of -10.
Washington’s surprising 3-1 start both SU and ATS has the team sitting in first-place in the NFC East, when just about everyone had it pegged as bringing up the rear in the division. The Redskins’ defense is mainly responsible for the fast start as it is ranked third in the league in points allowed. This has helped compensate for an offense that is ranked 22nd in scoring.
The Eagles have won four of the last five games in Washington and are 3-1-1 ATS. The road team in this series is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Prediction: Philadelphia 28 Washington 24
Need more help making your picks winners? Check out our top handicappers.
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