NFL Top Three ‘Over/Under’ Plays- Week 6
Points were back in fashion last week in the NFL as nine of the 13 games went ‘over’ the total. This marked a return to the trend in the first two weeks of the regular season when over 70 percent of the games went ‘over’ the total line.
SportsBook Lists’ early success stayed on track last week with a fifth-straight 2-1 record on our top plays to raise our year-to-date record to 10-5. The followings are our best bets for Week 6 on the ‘total line’ as provided by BetOnline.com.
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New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over/Under: 49.5
New Orleans comes into this game with the fifth-highest scoring offense in the league and a defense that is giving up 25 points a game. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of its first five games.
Tampa Bay has struggled to put points on the board this season with an average of just 17.4 points a game. Its defense is tied with New Orleans for 22nd in the league in points allowed and was torched for 48 points last week in a loss to San Francisco.
While the current trends tend to favor New Orleans putting up a big number in this game, the past trends point to a matchup that should stay well ‘under’ the current total line. The total has actually stayed ‘under’ in 10 of the Saints last 12 games against the NFC South and in their last five games against the Bucs.
The Pick: UNDER
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Over/Under: 40
Jacksonville comes into this game ranked 31st in the NFL in scoring with an average of just 11.8 points a game. Before scoring 20 points in last week’s loss to Cincinnati, the Jaguars only managed to score a combined 23 points in its three previous games.
Pittsburgh’s defense is once again at the top of the rankings across the board in the league. It is ranked first against the pass and second in total yards allowed, but most importantly, it is only giving up an average of 17.8 points a game.
The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the Jaguars last seven games following a straight-up loss and has also stayed ‘under’ in the Steelers last four home games against a team with a losing record on the road.
The Pick: UNDER
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Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots Over/Under: 55
It is hard to know what to expect from Tony Romo and the Cowboys on a week-to- week basis, but they come into this game well-rested after a bye and have had two weeks to figure out a way to win this game. Most likely, it will have to be by scoring a ton of points with a defense that is ranked 23rd in the league in points allowed.
The numbers for New England speak for themselves. Tom Brady and Co. are averaging 33 points a game and have yet to be held to less than 30 points in any of their first five games. The Patriot’s defense is ranked last in the league in total yards allowed and giving up an average of 23.8 points a game.
Despite such a high total line, everything points to this game easily going ‘over’. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of Dallas’s last eight road games and in 17 of its last 22 games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in 20 of New England’s last 26 games overall.
The Pick: OVER
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