NFL Week 5- Top Three ‘Point Spread’ Plays
The odds makers sharpened their pencils to a fine point last week as they split the favorite and the dogs right down the middle at 8-8. The road teams had a slight edge with 10 winning against the spread. We crashed and burned on a couple of AFC North teams; going down with the ship on Cleveland and Pittsburgh as well as on a Miami team that is worse than first expected.
SportsBook Lists has dug even deeper to mine out the value in this week’s lines, so here are the top three point spread plays for Week 5 in the NFL.
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Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6)
The Raiders are 2-2 straight-up on the year (3-1 against the spread), but they have already shown signs that they will remain competitive all season long. They have a running game that is pounding out an average of 178.8 yards a game behind Darren McFadden’s 6.2 yards per carry.
The Texans are 3-1 both SU and ATS, but lost a big chunk of their offense for this game with wide receiver Andre Johnson listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury. The good news is the running back Arian Foster was back in the lineup last week after sustaining a hamstring injury of his own in the preseason.
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a road underdog and 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss. Houston is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a SU win. The Texans should be able to score enough points to get the win, but take the Raiders to cover with the six points.
The Pick: Houston 28 Oakland 23
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New Orleans Saints (-6) at Carolina Panthers
The Saints are well on their way to another winning season with a 3-1 start both SU and ATS. The addition of rookie running back Mark Ingram has given New Orleans a legitimate running game to go along with Drew Brees and its second-ranked passing offense.
The Panthers may be just 1-3 SU (3-1 ATS), but with rookie quarterback Cam Newton running the offense, they are easily the most entertaining team in the NFL with a losing record. The turnaround from last season has been dramatic as Carolina now has the third-ranked offense in the league after it finished ranked dead-last in 2010.
New Orleans has come out on top in seven of its last nine trips to Carolina ATS and the favorite in this series is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. Stick with the Saints to win and cover as road favorites, but it will take a full four quarters before this one is in the bag.
The Pick: New Orleans 28 Carolina 21
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New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9.5)
The Jets have tabled all the false bravado for this week’s game after getting humbled with two straight losses both SU and ATS the past two weeks. They are now 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) on the year and in danger of letting their Super Bowl dreams slip away with a loss this Sunday.
The Patriots’ offense has not skipped a beat this season, racking-up an average of 507.5 yards and 33.8 points a game. This has gone a long way at masking the problems that exist with a defense that is giving up 477.5 yards and 24.5 points a game.
The Jets have won four of the last six meetings between the two both SU and ATS. Another plus in New York’s favor is the road team in this series has won 18 of the last 26 games ATS. Rex Ryan’s gang will have a difficult time getting out of Gillette Stadium with an outright win, but count on them giving the Patriots all they can handle in a game that hangs in the balance until the final gun.
The Pick: New England 31 New York 24
Need more help making your picks winners? Check out our top handicappers.
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