Week four saw a proliferation of points scored as 9 out of 14 games went over the total. These 9 games went over the total by an average of almost 12 points. The two highest were Detroit at Chicago which totaled a whopping 72 points, 33 over the total and San Diego at Pittsburgh which totaled 66 points, 23 over the total. It is hard to say whether or not this trend will continue into week 5 as there are several match ups in my book that favor a low scoring affair. The amazing stat for week five has nothing to do with the under/over line, rather the actual point spread of the games. 7 out of 14 home teams are getting points and two of the seven, the Lions and the Rams are favored to lose by double digits; so much for the home field advantage in week five. Getting back to the totals line, the following are my top 3 Over/Under picks for week three.
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills Current Over/Under 40.5
Both these teams have combined for 123 total points and a record of 1-7. Cleveland’s offense is ranked 29th in both yards per game and total points scored, while Buffalo is ranked 26th overall and 21st in total points scored. Brown’s head coach, Eric Mangini switched quarterbacks last week, benching Brady Quinn for Derek Anderson to try and provide a spark. It seemed to help somewhat as the Browns did move the ball more effectively. It remains to be seen whether Cleveland finally parting ways this week with disgruntled WR Braylon Edwards will have any effect in this game. Buffalo started the season almost beating the Patriots, but it has been pretty much downhill from there, scoring only 17 points in their last two games. Defensively, both teams are equally as bad ranking near the bottom of the league in several categories. This all adds up to a sloppy, low scoring game that stays well below the total.
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals Current Over/Under 48
What attracts me to this game is that this is the highest total of all 14 games this week, which means the odds makers are expecting the points to fly. Given the fact that neither one of these teams likes to play defense or run the ball makes this even better. Arizona’s offense is ranked 31st in rushing yards per game, while they are ranked 4th in passing yards. Houston’s mix is not that much better as their offense is ranked 30th in rushing yards and 9th in passing. Couple these stats with the fact that the Cardinal’s defense ranks 30th against the pass and the Texan’s are ranked 25th in total yards allowed per game and you have the perfect storm for a high scoring shootout. I would feel comfortable with a 58 point total in this game.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins Current Over/Under 36.5
I’m now going from the highest over to the lowest under for basically the same reason; the odds makers do not expect these teams to put a ton of points on the board. Neither of these teams has an explosive offense and both are led by an inexperienced quarterback. You saw what happened last week when New York asked rookie QB Mark Sanchez to go out and win the game. He promptly committed four turnovers leading directly to 14 points for the Saints’ defense. After a shoulder injury to starter, Chad Pennington, Miami has turned to Chad Henne as his replacement. Henne is in his second year and last week’s game against the Bills was his first NFL start. All this adds up to both these teams trying to keep
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