NFL Week 4- Top Three ‘Point Spread’ Plays
The odds makers were a bit too generous with the points last week as 11-of-16 underdogs covered the spread or won their game outright. The home teams were split right down the middle with eight winning against the spread. We bit the bullet on two of the dogs, betting against Seattle and Buffalo, but Tampa Bay’s 16-13 victory over Atlanta as a 1.5-point home favorite avoided a total loss for the week.
SportsBook Lists has gone back to the drawing board to find the value in this week’s lines, so here are the top three point spread plays for Week 4 in the NFL.
Need more help making your picks winners? Check out our top handicappers.
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (-4)
The Steelers could some up the first three weeks of this season as ‘The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly’ to borrow the title from an old Clint Eastwood movie. They are 2-1, but looked horrible in a 35-7 opening day loss to Baltimore as one-point road favorites and less than flattering in a 23-20 win over the Manning-less Colts last Sunday night as 10.5-point road favorites.
The Texans got off to a great start with relative easy wins over Indianapolis and Miami that both covered the spread. Last week, they came up short in a 40-33 shootout with New Orleans as 3.5-point road underdogs. The defense was torched by the Saints for 20 more points than it gave up in the first two weeks combined.
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS following an ATS loss and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog. Houston is 3-7 in its last 10 games following an ATS loss. The Steelers are a perfect 2-0 both SU and ATS in the last two meetings.
The Pick: Houston 24 Pittsburgh 21
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Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1)
The Titans rallied to beat Denver 17-14 last week as seven-point home favorites, but lost Pro-Bowl wide receiver Kenny Britt for the season with a torn ACL. They are off to a 2-1 start SU, but are 1-2 ATS after also failing to cover as a one-point road underdog in a 16-14 opening day loss to Jacksonville.
The Browns are also 2-1 SU (1-1-1) on the year after grinding out a 17-16 victory over Miami last Sunday as one-point home favorites. They will have running back Peyton Hillis back in the lineup this week after missing the game with the Dolphins with strep throat.
Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a SU win and 1-6 against the spread in its last seven games on the road. Cleveland is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games played in the month of October and a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games played in Week 4 of the regular season.
The Pick: Cleveland 20 Tennessee 17
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Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-8)
The Dolphins’ 0-3 start SU could actually be pinned more on the defense after showing some signs of life on the offensive side of the ball. Miami rolled up close to 500 yards of total offense in a 38-24 opening-day loss to New England as a seven-point home underdog and it is ranked seventh in the NFL in rushing with an average of 129.7 yards a game.
The Chargers are off to a 2-1 start SU, but are 0-3 ATS after struggling to beat Minnesota and Kansas City, which are a combined 0-6 this season. They also lost to the Patriots by the score of 35-21 as 6.5-point road underdogs.
The Dolphins have been pretty good as road underdogs with a 15-5-1 record ATS in their last 21 games. San Diego is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games as a favorite and 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. Miami is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the two and 4-1 ATS in its last five road games in this series.
The Pick: Miami 21 San Diego 20
Need more help making your picks winners? Check out our top handicappers.
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