NFL Top Three ‘Over/Under’ Plays- Week 2
If you went heavy on the ‘over’ play last week then you are off to a great start in the 2011 NFL season as 12 of the 16 games went ‘over’ the total. This is in direct contrast to the usual trend of lower scoring games on opening day.
It is hard to tell whether or not this propensity for points was a one-week wonder or an emerging trend, but here are the Top 3 ‘over/under’ plays for this week with the total line provided by BetOnline.com.
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Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts Over/Under: 38.5
The Browns offense looked awful against Cincinnati last week as Colt McCoy completed just 47.5 percent of his passes and looked like a deer caught in the headlights on more than one occasion against a less than dominant Bengal defense.
Kerry Collins proved he is no Peyton Manning as the Colts floundered their way to just seven points against a Houston defense that did not improve that drastically from last season.
The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of Cleveland’s last five games as a favorite of three point or less. The past trends for Indianapolis are heavily skewed towards Manning being under center for the past decade, but even with him playing the total stayed ‘under’ in the Colts last four home games as an underdog.
The Pick: UNDER
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Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins Over/Under: 44
Arizona came away with a 28-21 win over Carolina last week, but it cannot feel too good about its defense giving up 422 yards passing to Cam Newton in his NFL debut. A 98-yard punt return by Cardinals rookie defensive back Patrick Peterson proved to be the difference in this one.
Washington, on the other hand, has to feel pretty good about holding its NFL East rival, the New York Giants, to just 14 points on its way to a 14-point win. Rex Grossman managed the game well for the Redskins, but he is still not going to strike fear into too many other secondaries around the league.
The total has stayed ‘under’ in 10 of Washington’s last 13 games as a favorite and in its last seven games as a home favorite. The total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of the last 10 meetings between the two.
The Pick: UNDER
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Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco Giants Over/Under: 42.5
The Cowboys did everything in their power to upset the Jets in their opener, but a few extremely costly mistakes down the stretch proved to be the difference in a 27-24 loss. The total squeaked ‘over’ the 40.5-point line by half a point.
San Francisco’s 33-point effort in its 16-point victory over Seattle was fueled by both a Ted Ginn kick-off return and punt return for touchdowns with less than seven minutes to play in the game. The total was close to going ‘over’ the 37.5-point line even without these two scores, but these two plays ended that conversation.
The total has gone ‘over’ in 10 of Dallas’s last 11 games against the NFC and in 14 of its last 16 games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in the 49ers last five games against the NFC and in five of its last six games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in the last five meetings between the two.
The Pick: OVER
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Last Week’s Record 2-1
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