The beauty of picking NFL odds is that there are so many games to choose from every week. We gave you four plays two days ago; let’s reload with four more NFL picks for this weekend.
Falcons (-4) over Dolphins
WHY: The Falcons want to show the league they, not the Saints or Eagles, have the NFC’s top offense and the NFL week 1 matchups could back up that claim. Matt Ryan is poised for a breakout and adding Tony Gonzalez gives him a nice safety valve for those rare times when Roddy White isn’t available downfield.
POTENTIAL HEARTBREAK: Some sharps still believe in the Dolphins, thinking their poor pass defense from 2008 will improve with Gibril Wilson and rookie Vontae Davis joining the fray. Maybe they’ll hang with the Falcons’ attack better than expected.
Saints (-13) over Lions
WHY: While you always have to be careful with 13-point spreads, the Saints look good to cruise in week 1. Not only do they have a ridiculously potent offense led by 5,000-yard man Drew Brees under center, the Lions’ “D” has a knack for getting torched. Also, Matt Stafford could be shaky for the Lions in his first start as a pro.
POTENTIAL HEARTBREAK: There’s no chance of the Lions winning, but they could beat the spread if Matt Stafford unleashes a good deep ball to Calvin Johnson. The Detroit offense will improve in 2009 and could hang with New Orleans in a shootout.
Texans (-4.5) over Jets
WHY: Houston has a high-powered, well-rounded, cohesive offense. When healthy, Matt Schaub is an accurate and talented passer. The Jets should improve defensively this season under Rex Ryan’s tutelage but we won’t see it happen in week 1 with Calvin Pace and Shaun Ellis both suspended. Mark Sanchez also can’t be guaranteed to dazzle in his NFL debut.
POTENTIAL HEARTBREAK: Houston’s defense still has a long way to go after Mario Williams, so you never know – Sanchez could lead the Jets to some scores after all. Leon Washington’s pass-catching and rushing ability give him a chance to be a game breaker every week.
Rams (+8) over Seahawks
WHY: Pass protection may be a problem with Walter Jones sitting out; that’s problematic since the Seahawks have no running game. The Rams could surprise on “D” this season after poaching Steve Spagnuolo from the Giants to be their head coach. Steven Jackson could gash a talented yet underachieving Seattle front seven. Handicapping software projects the Rams to beat the spread.
POTENTIAL HEARTBREAK: Make no mistake: the Seahawks should still win this game. It’s just a question of what the margin will be. Mark Bulger is totally shell-shocked, so the game could be over early of the Seahawks get to him.
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