NFL Playoff Betting

Betting On the NFL Playoffs

As if the NFL regular season doesn’t attract enough attention – and betting action – the players really come crawling out of the woodwork during pro football’s second season – the playoffs. Everybody and his brother has an opinion on NFL playoff games, and a considerable percentage of folks seem more willing to back up those opinions with cash.

Click Here for more  Free Expert NFL Football Picks

Until very recently, handicapping the NFL playoffs seemed a fairly straightforward proposition. Home-field advantage ruled, for the most part, and favorites seemed to have their way most of the time. So bettors could back that home chalk, give whatever points they had to, and still feel reasonably certain they’d be cashing in winning tickets in three hours time.

Over the past decade or so, however, there’s been little advantage in backing home teams or favorites or higher seeded teams on a regular basis. Road teams and underdogs have done just enough to keep bettors off-balance, and the oddsmakers and their pointspreads have done their jobs, coming pretty damn close to balancing the covers and the losses along many statistical splits. Before we get into some numbers, a few observations of the obvious when it comes to NFL playoff betting.

NFL playoff lines are tighter than during the regular season. Even on a regular season weekend, with 16 games, weak lines are hard to find. In the playoffs, there are only 10 games total each season, not counting the Super Bowl. There ain’t much that isn’t known about the teams involved in those 10 games, as far as injuries, strategy, past performances and the like.

That doesn’t mean those lines won’t move. With fewer games and increased action, Joe Public and his wagering action can m19ve the pointspread of any playoff game one, two and even three points on occasion. That’s when smarts and sharps like to swoop in and act counter to the movement; which is a kind of a betting system all in itself.

When discussing any records herein using terms like straight-up (SU) and against the pointspreads (ATS), these are really just a product of a sampling of a set of football games. However, bettors should keep in mind that unlike regularseason-records, which can be skewed because of circumstances that arise amongst individual teams, postseason records are a truer gauge of how games play out when the teams involved are giving their all.

During the regular season, teams can arrive at a point where winning might not be at the top of their agendas. Some squads may be out of the playoff picture and might choose to play some of their younger players in an attempt to build for the future. Some teams may already be in the playoffs and settled into their seeds and might just try to avoid injuries or reveal anything on film. Think of the Colts and Saints just last year, both of whom basically surrendered their last few regular-season games with an eye on the longer run. (Which seemed to work, because those two teams met in the Super Bowl)

Playoff records, on the other hand, reflect what happens when the best teams in the league meet with seasonal survival at stake. The only item on their agendas is winning.

The NFL playoffs open with Wild Card weekend, during which the two lowest seeded division champions in each conference host the two Wild Card
entries. Over the course of the last two postseasons, home teams have won
28 of 44 Wild Card games outright. The pointspread, however, served its purpose; those same home teams are 23-21 vs. the numbers, which is a short percentage on which to try and make a profit.

Favorites come in along the same lines over that same span. Wild Card chalk is 28-16 straight-up since 1999, and 22-21-1 vs. the pointspreads. Last January, road dogs had their day on the Sunday of Wild Card weekend. as Baltimore. at +7 in New England. and the Jets, as three-point dogs in Cincinnati, both won their games outright.

Wild Card home dogs, a fairly rare breed (about one a year; zero last year), have tread water over our two-year sample against the pointspreads, but they’ve made money for those who like to bet football games on the moneylines. Over the last two playoff seasons, Wild Card home underdogs have won four of nine games outright, and are 4-4-1 ATS. However, those numbers are heavily reliant on the 2000 postseason, when three home dogs (Miami over Indianapolis, New Orleans over defending Super Bowl champion St. Louis, and Philadelphia over Tampa Bay) won games outright.

Also, while they don’t do it very often, the oddsmakers have known when to throw out a big number on a Wild Card game. Both double-digit Wild Card
favorites of the last 10 years (San Diego -10 over Tennessee in 2007 and the Colts -10 over Denver in ’04) both won and covered the spread.

Playoff seedings determine home-field advantage. Historically, the higher seeded teams have won more playoff games than they’ve lost, but that doesn’t mean they’ve been a moneymaker for the system bettors. Over our two-year sample, the three-seeds are 14-8 straight up and 12-10 vs. the pointspreads when playing the six-seeds during Wild Card weekend; and four-seeds are 14-8 SU and 11-10-1 ATS vs. the five-seeds-which means that, while the higher Wild Card weekend seeds are 28-16 straight up, they’re also 23-20-1 against the spreads. A success rate of 53% doesn’t get you too far when having to give 11 to make 10 every time out.

Of course, betting on teams to win games and/or cover pointspreads isn’t the only way to get down on a Wild Card game. There’s always the totals, or OVER/UNDER. Before betting on Wild Card totals, handicappers might want to consider a couple of recent trends.

In a bit of a statistical anomaly, even though the last two years worth of Wild Card games has seen an average of 44 PPG scored, which is very close to recent regular-season averages, the totals have leaned toward the unders by a 25-18 margin (with one push). Last year’s Wild Card weekend, however, produced another aberration in that all four games (the Cowboys win over the Eagles, the Jets win at Cincy, the Ravens upset of the Patriots, and the Cardinals win over the Packers) played over their posted totals.

When we move on to the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs, we run into what many bettors might think would be a clear handicapping advantage. Each of the four Divisional round games sends a team that had to play on Wild Card weekend to the home field of a team that had the previous week off. Now, a week off sounds like a good thing; bumps and bruises are given time to heal, coaches have an extra week to watch film and work on game plans, and a little time away from the office can be refreshing. Plus, home crowds have an extra week to get amped up.

According to our sampling, bye weeks and homefield advantage during the Divisional round of the playoffs do not necessarily combine to produce winnings at the betting windows.

Since 1999, the top two seeds in each conference (coming off bye weeks and playing at home) have won 29 of 44 games outright in Divisional round play, but those same teams are only 20-23-1 vs. the pointspreads in those games.

Last year played a bit chalky, as the Colts, Saints and Vikings all won and covered as top-two seeds. The season previous, three of the four top-two seeds got beat outright. as Tennessee fell to Baltimore, the Giants lost to the Eagles, and the Panthers got punked by the Super Bowl-bound Cardinals. Since 2002, underdogs are 21-10 ATS during Divisional round weekend.

Breaking down the past two Divisional round weekends by seed matchup: No. 1s are 7-2 straight up and 54 ATS vs. No. 4s; 4-1 SU but 14 ATS vs. No. 5s; and 5-3 both SU and ATS vs. No. 6s. Meanwhile No.2 seeds are’8-6 SU but 4-9-1 ATS vs. No. 3s; 3-1 both SU and ATS vs. No. 4s; and 2-2 both SU and ATS vs. No. 5s.

Also, the totals have leaned toward the unders in Divisional round play by a 24-20 margin, as those last 44 conference semifinals have seen an average of 43 points scored.

The host teams have also always been thought to have an advantage when conference championship weekend rolled around. That line of thought is also based in a bit of myth. Over the last two NFL postseasons the home teams have won 14 of 22 conference title games straightup, including seven of the last eight. That recent run. though. reversed a trend that saw home teams lose six of 12 conference championship games outright from 2000 through 2005. Overall, those host outfits are only 10-11-1 vs. the pointspreads over our two-season sample.

By seed matchups. No. Is are 6-3 SU and 4-4-1 ATS in conference title games vs. No. 2s over the last two seasons; 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS vs. No. 3s; 0-1 both SU and ATS vs. No. 4s; and 2-0 both SU and ATS vs. No. 5s. The NO.2 seeds, meanwhile, are a collective 1-3 both straight up and against the spread vs. four-, five- and six-seeds over the last two years’ worth of conference championship games.

Also, two of the three conference championship home underdogs of the past two seasons have won their games outright, the last being the Cardinals two years ago vs. the Eagles.

Finally and somewhat surprisingly, when considering the axiom that “defense wins championships,” ten of the last 12 conference title games have played over their posted totals. The OverjUnders have leaned toward the Overs by a lopsided 16-6 margin over the last 22 conference championship games.

Bettors should not go into the NFL postseason thinking home teams and favorites and teams with bye weeks and higher seeds are sure things because, as our analysis shows, the truth is a bit more complicated than that.

Good luck with your postseason NFL betting!