When NFL betting experts devote themselves to the task of establishing rankings-based hierarchies, statistical probabilities, and all sorts of scenarios (likely, unlikely, certain, and remote) for the coming NFL season, they’re going to have some tough choices. Who will win the Houston-Indianapolis clash in the AFC South? Will the Pittsburgh Steelers be able to win back the AFC North against the Baltimore Ravens? Will the Chicago Bears return to the playoffs? All of those questions will lead football experts to prolonged sessions of analysis and re-evaluation.
The AFC West should not prove to be nearly as vexing or challenging.
This is the Denver Broncos’ division to lose, and there should be no question at all about such a claim. It’s not that the Broncos are so good, even though they do have Peyton Manning and have been vindicated in their decision to pluck him from the Indianapolis Colts. Yes, Denver with Peyton is a very solid team, one that should win at least 11 games this season. What makes the AFC West such an easy call is that the other three teams in the division are nowhere near Denver’s level.
The Kansas City Chiefs will probably finish second in the AFC West this season. This is an organization that has endured so much sadness and tumult in recent seasons, with the murder-suicide of former player Jovan Belcher casting a long shadow over a franchise that descended into dysfunction in recent seasons. The Chiefs did win a division title in the 2010 season, but that proved to be an aberrational event in the tenures of former coach Todd Haley and former general manager Scott Pioli. The subculture in and around the Chiefs’ office complex and practice facility became so toxic under Pioli that the morale of the organization plummeted. Belcher’s murder-suicide was the product of his own personal problems, specifically his intimate relationships, but one could not avoid the notion that the Chiefs had become immersed in profound and poisonous negativity. Everything about the organization needed to be blown up, and so it was that Pioli got the boot, with head coach Romeo Crennel also being ushered out the door. It’s an entirely new era in Kansas City, with Andy Reid coaching the team after a long career with the Philadelphia Eagles. Reid has Alex Smith, formerly of the San Francisco 49ers, as his new quarterback. John Dorsey is the new general manager. The Chiefs might not make the playoffs, but they certainly have more upside than any other non-Denver team in the AFC West.
The likely third-place team in the division is the San Diego Chargers. Philip Rivers has seen his career deteriorate over the past few seasons, and he has seen his offensive line wither into nothing. The Chargers finally fired former head coach Norv Turner and replaced him with former Denver Bronco offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. It’s unclear if McCoy is made of NFL head coaching material. The Chargers will push the Chiefs for second place but will just as likely fall a bit short.
The probable last-place team in this division is the Oakland Raiders. People in and around the NFL will tell you that this organization is set up for failure. Dennis Allen has lost internal power struggles with owner Mark Davis (the son of Raider patriarch Al Davis) and does not have the trust of his players. General Manager Reggie McKenzie has not been able to wield power as effectively as he needs to. The Raiders are headed nowhere; their position at the bottom of the division is the other easy call in this division. The Chiefs and the Chargers are the true sources of intrigue in the AFC West for 2013.
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