Last week we learned a few things about some teams in the NFC. First, Brett Favre still does have enough gas in the tank to win the big games. His 3 TD performance on Monday night against his old team help lead the Vikings to a 30-23 win over the Packers and a 4-0 start. The Giants are still the best team in the NFC, but they literally may have an Achilles heel with Eli Manning’s foot injury. Tampa Bay is bad, but St. Louis is worse has they are both near the bottom of the rankings in every major category on both offense and defense. New Orleans also has a defense that can score points almost as well as their offense. San Francisco is now the best team in the NFC West, as injury problems continue to hamper Seattle and the jury is still out on Arizona. Finally, the biggest thing we learned is that there are some big problems in Big D as the Cowboys looked dazed and confused in their loss to Denver.
Moving onto week five, the key NFC match ups we will be reviewing are; Atlanta @ San Francisco, Minnesota @ St. Louis, and Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia.
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) Current Over/Under 41
The Falcons should be well rested after coming off a bye week. They will look to get back to their winning ways after losing to New England 26-10 in week three. To win this game they will have to improve on a running attack that is ranked 25th in the league. RB Michael Turner is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry, a full yard less than last season. Second year QB Matt Ryan has played fairly well so far, aided by the addition of All-Pro TE Tony Gonzalez. This pair will need to come up big as well against a stout 49er defense. San Francisco’s main issue this season has been getting consistent production from an offense that is ranked 28th in total yards per game. The loss of RB Frank Gore for a few weeks will not help their cause as they do not want to have to rely on the pass to beat the Falcons. Coming off the bye, I like the Falcons to win the game outright with the total staying under.
Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) @ St. Louis Rams Current Over/Under 40
You might expect a bit of a letdown after Monday night’s big win, but against St. Louis it would hardly seem to matter. The Vikings just have too much fire power on offense for the Ram’s defense to handle and they should be able to score points at will. St. Louis is ranked 24th against the run which means a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson on Sunday. He only rushed for 55 yards Monday night so I expect him to have a big game this week. Defensively, the Vikings are ranked 11th overall and 16th in points allowed, but they should have more than enough to shut down a Ram’s offense that is only averaging 6 points a game. Look for the Vikings to easily cover the spread as well as score enough to almost take this game over on their own.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5) Current Over/Under 42.5
It is bad enough that the Bucs are off to a 0-4 start, but they face a Philadelphia team, that under head coach Andy Reid, are a perfect 10-0 after a bye week. To make matters worse for Tampa, QB Donovan McNabb and RB Brian Westbrook are expected to be back in the lineup after missing the last few games with injuries. Other issues that will continue to plague the Bucs is their total lack of offensive output. QB Josh Johnson got his first professional start last week against Washington and was only able to generate 229 yards of total offense. That will not be nearly enough to keep up with a Philadelphia offense ranks 2nd in points per game. Playing at home, look for Philly to cover the 13 ½ and score enough for the over as well.
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