New England Patriots 2010 Season Preview, Predictions Picks & Odds
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New England Patriots 2009 NFL Record: 10-6 Home: 8-0 Away: 2-6
New England Patriots 2010 Preview
These are strange times in Foxborough, times not seen since 1999 B.B. (before Belichick). The Patriots are corning off a 10-6 season, decent enough by most standards, but then were summarily disn1issed by the visiting Ravens in the wild card round. Things do not appear to be trending upward. Dean Pees, the Patriots’ respected defensive coordinator, became the scapegoat, let go after six seasons with the team. Bill Belichick has said he will take a larger role on defense – a gameplan that would make better sense if he had an offensive coordinator in place whom he trusted implicitly. Quarterbacks coach Bill O’Brien called most of the plays last season, but the Pats’ playcalling was stale, and there are run10rs that quarterback Tom Brady is not a huge fan of O’Brien’s. The fact that he didn’t receive a formal promotion can’t be considered a positive, either. That means Belichick will head into the season without a named offensive or defensive coordinator, something that hasn’t happened in decades. Add in the team’s significant personnel holes, some ofwhich were filled in the draft with players whose performance can’t truly be projected yet, and New England could be headed for its worst season since Belichick’s first team went 5-11 in 2000.
2010 New England Patriots Quarterbacks
Tom Brady is Torn Brady – still one of the league’s elite quarterbacks, and likely even more confident this year with a full season on his reconstructed knee behind him. Questions linger as to whether his commitment to the team has been affected by being married to a globe-trotting supermodel, but he professes that it is as strong as ever. Brian Hoyer, an undrafted rookie out of Michigan State, was the only backup last year, showing that the team has confidence in hin1. New England might bring in a veteran, likely to serve as the thirdstringer and not necessarily to take Hoyer’s job as the No. 2 guy.
2010 New England Patriots Running Backs
New England has an experienced group of runners, but their experience (read: age) makes it difficult to express a great deal of confidence in their ability to produce at a high level. Fred Taylor, Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris will all be 33 or older when the season starts, and both Taylor and Morris missed time last year to injury. Laurence Maroney will once again be itching to prove that he isn’t the first-round disappointment he’s largely been to this point, though it would certainly be a positive if his newfound fondness for the end zone were to continue (a career-high nine touchdowns in ’09). In a perfect world, Maroney would be the first- and second-down back, Morris would get the short yards, Taylor would be the goal line back and Faulk, as always, would be lined up allover the field. New England did not draft a running back to add fresh legs to a decidedly middle-of-the-pack ground game.
2010 New England Patriots Receivers
It is unlikely that Wes Welker, who tore his left ACL and MCL in the regular-season finale, will return to the field before November, and there is no way of knowing how he will respond when he does play. It is best to plan to play without the league’s leading receiver from a year ago, meaning New England will be counting on an aging Randy Moss and a young Julian Edelman to carry this unit. Assuming Moss as the No.1 and Edelman, seen as something of a Welker clone, as the No.2, someone needs to step up as a viable No.3, something New England didn’t have last year. The leading candidates are veteran Torry Holt, second-year pro Brandon Tate and rookie Taylor Price, who is seen as a vertical threat. The tight end has seemingly disappeared from the offense in recent seasons, but with the drafting of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, that could change. Brady has shown that he can make do with an average group of receivers, and right now that’s what this group looks to be – two once-great players who are on ~ their last legs and a host of others still learning the nuances of the offense
2010 New England Patriots Offensive Line
This is another group that has some aging parts but allowed a franchise-low (for 16 games) 18 sacks last year. Left tackle Matt Light will likely start the season in his customary spot, but Sebastian Vollmer, who opened a lot of eyes as a rookie last year and should start at right tackle early, could eventually stake a claim for Light’s position. In the prime of his career at age 28, Logan Mankins is one of the best guards in the league. The problems are at center and right guard. Dan Koppen, always undersized, has been getting pushed off the ball more and more, and Stephen Neal very nearly called it a career. Interior lineman Dan Connolly is versatile and therefore highly thought of in New England. He heads a young group of reserves with Mark LeVoir, Ryan Wendell, Rich Ohrnberger and late-round draft picks Ted Larsen and Thomas Welch.
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2010 New England Patriots Defense
The Patriots’ defensive dominance has always started in the trenches, so the fact that the defense struggled in ’09 can be traced back to a major hole on the line. Once Richard Seymour was traded, New England didn’t have a player near his stature to put in his place. Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork are both standouts, but they will get a great deal of attention if a third piece isn’t found quickly. Mike Wright has been solid when called upon, but he is no Seymour. Originally looked at as a nosetackle, Ron Brace could be bumped outside. And given the personnel they have, the Patriots could play more 4-3 this year. But as the unit stands, the Pats will likely lack the ability to consistently push blockers back and close the pocket on the quarterback.
Second-round draft pick Brandon Spikes is the wild card in assessing this group. If he can step in alongside Jerod Mayo at inside linebacker, New England might have the flexibility to move Gary Guyton to the outside, where the team is very thin. Guyton is fast and good in coverage but is a liability against the run, so moving him outside would make sense. Tully Banta-Cain, credited with 10 sacks last year, is the top returning pass-rusher statistically, though draftee Jermaine Cunningham could help and Pierre Woods, who saw his playing time decline last year, can mix things up as well. Overall, though, this unit isn’t nearly as good as it was just a couple ofyears ago.
If the front seven is doing its job, pressuring quarterbacks and causing problems for opponents, then the Patriots’ backs are more than competent. If the front seven isn’t doing its job, the secondary will struggle. Cornerback Leigh Bodden had his best seasons under Romeo Crennel in Cleveland; Crennel’s system is very similar to Belichick’s, and Bodden should show even more confidence this season after a five-interception performance in 2009. Second-year corner Darius Butler will likely start opposite Bodden, with Jonathan Wilhite and first-round pick Devin McCourty in the mix at nickel. Terrence Wheatley is considered by some in the organization to have more talent than Wilhite, but he was in a strange sort of exile last year and played just five games. Shawn Springs, who practiced quite a bit at safety last year, could see more time at that position. Strong safety Brandon Meriweather has been making strides, and ever-steady free safety James Sanders keeps the unit on the same page.
New England Patriots 2010 Season Prediction
Belichick’s tenure with the Patriots has been marked by his almost always having the right answer. But this season, there just seem to be too many question marks, from who will be doing what on the coaching staff to who will catch the ball to who will rush the passer. The rival Jets and Dolphins made major moves via free agency, trades and the draft to improve, but the Patriots just didn’t improve at the same rate. When it’s all said and done, they could find themselves in third place in the AFC East.
We predict that the New England Patriots will finish 1st in the AFC East, with a record of 11-5.
New England Patriots Betting
AFC East Odds: 5-4 AFC Conference Odds: 9-2 Super Bowl Odds: 9-1
New England Patriots Five-Year Win Betting Trends
2005: 10 2006: 12 2007: 16 2008: 11 2009: 10
Bet on the New England Patriots
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