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New York Jets vs New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
Sunday October 9 – 4:15 PM EST on CBS
Spread (ATS): New England Patriots -10.5
Money Line: New York Jets +365, New England Patriots -440
Over/Under: 48.5
Odds courtesy of BetOnline.com
New York Jets
Huge game for the New York Jets this week. Sure it is New England, but after two weeks of poor performances they need to play well more than they actually need to win this week. The question is what kind of performance will we get: the one from the playoffs where they beat the Pats in Foxboro or the regular season version where they got humiliated in losing by 42 points. That huge line seems to indicate many think they are in line for another lesson.
New York is struggling this year because they can’t run the ball. They are averaging a startling 71 yards per game as Shonn Greene has struggled and LaDainian Tomlinson has devolved into a third down pass catcher. The smart strategy would be to pound the rock and control clock against New England but if they get down early they will have to abandon that plan quickly or they will lose touch with the Patriots.
The Jets and Patriots have split their regular season meetings in each of the last three seasons. Over the last two years the home team has won and covered in the regular season both times and that seems like the smart way to play it on Sunday. It seems like this game will either be a tight one down to the very last plat or a New England blowout. Playing the percentages could be the way to go.
New England Patriots
The Patriots were good but not great in rebounding from their loss at Buffalo in week three beating the Oakland Raiders 31-19 last week. If you look deeper into the game you can see that is was a very uncharacteristic performance where they leaned on the ground game more than they have in any game this year. This team is good but atypical from classic Belichik squads.
When the Patriots passing game is cooking they look like they can’t be stopped but isn’t the coach supposed to a defense guy. I knew they weren’t great but I was surprised to see that they are the worst in the league in yards against. I know that that there have only been 4 games but is there any reason to think they are going to get much better.
I definitely feel strongly that the Patriots will win the game but those are some big points they are laying and with that defense I am concerned about backdoor cover. I really think the over is the stronger/safer play this time around. Both teams have gone over 3 out of 4 this season and the over has cashed all three times they played last year.
The odds makers have the New England Patriots as a -10.5 point favorite with an over/under of 48.5.
ATS Pick: New York +10.5
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: New England 31 – New York 26
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