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Miami Dolphins vs San Diego Chargers
Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, California
Sunday October 2 – 4:15PM on CBS
Spread (ATS): San Diego -8
Over/Under: 44.5
Odds courtesy of BetOnline
Miami Dolphins
Miami’s season is lost. They are currently three games behind the surprising Buffalo Bills in the AFC East, and they are also trailing the Patriots and Jets by a couple of games. Their first two losses of the season were not close and last week’s loss at Cleveland by a point was the kind of game that can easily plunge a team into the abyss.
Last week the Dolphins controlled the ball for 37 minutes and outgained the Browns by 80 yards only to come up a point short as the Browns scored in the final minute. Ever since rookie running back Daniel Thomas joined the lineup he has been an effective running option even though he doesn’t break long runs. Right now the Reggie Bush decision is looking like a failure as he is barely even making an impact in the passing game this year.
Miami is 0-3 and 0-2-1 ATS so there has been zero value in getting behind the Dolphins this year. This team seems to lack an identity and many believe Chad Henne is just keeping a seat warm for Andrew Luck next year. If they keep up this pace than that can certainly become a reality. There is likely to be any real value on the Dolphins until they win a game.
San Diego Chargers
The San Diego Chargers may be one of the most talented teams in the league but they don’t always play like it. In Week one they let the Vikings enjoy a great first half and last week they let the listless Chiefs stay in the game far longer than they should have. San Diego was solid in a loss against New England but they didn’t really threaten the way they were expected to. Right now it is hard to get a read on how good this team really is.
Through three games it is surprising to see that QB Phillip Rivers has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. He is completing nearly 70% of his passes and it is odd that he is “targeting” the other team so much. This week he is hoping that he will have his full compliment of weapons but that seems unlikely with TE Antonio Gates and receivers Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Jackson listed on the injury report.
With all of the turnovers it is not a surprise that even though the Chargers are not giving up a lot of yards (8th) they are giving up points (20th). This line opened at -10 but has come down to -7, it seems unlikely that it will drop any lower but it is interesting to see which side the public will bet into on that key number. At -10 I probably would have stayed away. It is much more appealing right now.
The odds makers have the San Diego Chargers as a -8 point favorite with an over/under of 44.5.
ATS Pick: San Diego -8
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: San Diego 35 – Miami 21
Need more help making your picks winners? Check out our top handicappers.
Miami Dolphins Betting Trends:
- Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
- Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
- Miami is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami’s last 9 games on the road
San Diego Chargers Betting Trends:
- San Diego is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
- San Diego is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
- San Diego is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego’s last 5 games at home
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