Chiefs vs Texans | Prediction & Pick

NFL Free Pick – Sunday, October 10, 2010

vs.

Kansas City at Houston 1:00 PM CBS – Both teams flew out of the starting gate and got off to an early lead in their respective divisions, but then have recently displayed chinks in the armor.

Kansas City suffered its first loss to the Colts this past weekend, but Indy didn’t have an easy time as the KC defense held Peyton Manning and his high-powered offense to just 19 points. The real problem was the lack of Kansas City’s offense that could only produce nine points on three field goals.

Kansas City, which ranks third in the league with 148.8 rushing yards per game, was held to a season-low 113 yards on the ground last week, while QB Quarterback Matt Cassel finished with just 16 of 29 for 156 yards. Ouch!

Cassel will have a chance to get back on the rails as he faces a Texans defense that are giving up a league-leading 329.6 passing yards per game.

Houston also started the season 3-1, but then was pounded by the Giants last Sunday.

The running game was shut down and held to just 24 yards against the Giants, a staggering drop from the 142.4 the team had been averaging.

QB Matt Schaub has thrown for 1,233 yards and completed 62.2 percent of his passes, but he has seven touchdowns to five interceptions and has been sacked 14 times — second most in the league.

The Chiefs and Texans have split their four meetings with Houston winning the most recent, a 20-3 home victory in 2007.

I expect the Chiefs to find their early season mojo and eke out enough points to get a win on the road.

The odds makers have the Houston Texans as a -4 point favorite with an over/under of 44.5.

PREDICTION: Chiefs

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Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 6 games
• Kansas City4-1-1 SU in its last 6 games
• Kansas City is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games
• Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Houston Texans Betting Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston’s last 6 games
• Houston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
• Houston is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
• Houston is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home