Chargers vs Chiefs | Prediction & Pick

Monday, September 13, 2010

vs.

San Diego at Kansas City 10:15 PM on ESPN

Free Expert NFL Football Picks

All eyes will be on QB Philip Rivers as well as heralded Tomlinson replacement, rookie RB Ryan Mathews, as both will be expected to lift San Diego to its  fifth straight AFC title in 2010.

After the release of LaDainian Tomlinson there were a lot of questions if the Chargers could repeat their 2009 finish, going 13-3 with the second-best record in the AFC.

Enter Matthews, the Chargers 12th pick in April’s draft who led the FBS with 150.7 rushing yards per game last year at Fresno State. And let’s don’t forget San Diego still has Rivers, who has been a main ingredient for an offense that led the AFC with 28.4 points per game, throwing for a career-best 4,254 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2009.

Of course, he will be without one of his favorite targets in unsigned wide receiver Vincent Jackson who has been suspended by the NFL for the first three games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

So it’s likely that Matthews will see a lot of action in his first start against a KC defense that was ranked 31st against the run last season, allowing an average of 156.5 yards.

But only part of the Chiefs demise can be blamed on the defense, the offense also played a major part in plummeting KC to a dismal 4-12 finish in 2009, averaging just over 26 points per game — fourth-worst in the NFL.

But Norv Turner has endorsed second-year QB Matt Cassel, claiming the six –year veteran has improved his game as well as his ability to step up and lead the team.

Cassel passed for nearly 3,000 yards with 16 touchdowns last season but seemed to have trouble finding surveying the field tossing 16 picks, including four interceptions in the two games against the Chargers. Something he will need to avoid come Monday night.

It’s likely that KC will opt to attack San Diego on the ground for the most part as the Chargers run stoppers-20th in 2009—are going to see a lot of running back Jamaal Charles.

Charles has the skills, rushing for 1,120 yards in 10 starts, and averaging 5.9 yards per carry, tying him for the best in the NFL a year ago. In his only start against the Chargers last season, Charles rushed for 93 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries.

The revamped San Diego offense should fare well against a KC team who they have had dominated of late, winning five straight meetings, outscoring them 80-21. I am afraid the Chiefs will have a better chance at their first victory when the face Cleveland at the Dawg Pound in Week 2.

The odds makers have the Chargers as a -4.5 point favorite with an over/under of 45.

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San Diego Chargers Betting Trends:

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego’s last 7 games
  • San Diego is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
  • San Diego is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends:

  • Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Kansas City is 1-5-1 SU in its last 7 games ,
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 7 games
  • Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

Comments

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