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Cleveland Browns (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-2)
When: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, October 16, 2011 on CBS
Where: O.co Coliseum, Oakland, California
Broadcast: CBS
Spread: Oakland Raiders -6
Moneyline: Cleveland Browns +200, Oakland Raiders -240
Total: 44.5 points
The Oakland Raiders will play their first home game since the loss of their emotional leader Al Davis this weekend when they take on a surprising Cleveland Browns squad that is fresh off a bye. Oakland is coming off an impressive 25-20 win at Houston in Week 5 while the Browns will be looking to build on a 17-16 win over Miami before their bye.
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Cleveland, despite an impressive run has its share of issue – none more pressing than the contract squabble between the team and their star running back Peyton Hillis. Hillis is unhappy and he has made his feelings known. But despite the public war, the Browns running game is clipping along at a decent pace. They are only 27th in the NFL with an average of 88.75 yards per game but Hillis and backup Montario Hardesty are averaging a respectable 4 yards per carry this season.
With limited opportunities to run the ball, Cleveland has been forced to rely on the passing prowess of Colt McCoy who has not disappointed so far this season. McCoy and the passing game rank 17th in the NFL averaging 235.25 yards per game and are coming off a 350 yard performance in their Week 4 game against Miami. Mohamed Massaquoi, Ben Watson and Josh Cribbs have become good weapons for what has become a very underrated passing attack.
Cleveland’s defense has been OK this season as well. They have had their issues against the run ranking 25th and allowing 124.5 yards per game but they have been solid against the pass ranking 4th and allowing a shade over 195 yards per game. Cleveland allows the 13th fewest points in the league – just 23.25 per game. It goes without saying that the run defense is going to have to step up. Oakland is the 2nd best running team in the league and will certainly be trying to exploit Cleveland`s weak run D.
The Oakland Raiders certainly have emotion and momentum on their side heading into Sunday`s game. They also have the motivation of Darren McFadden who had his worst game of the season last week. Oakland is a sneaky 3-2 this season with aims of putting pressure on the San Diego Chargers atop the AFC West with another win this weekend.
Oakland has been getting it done this season with a surprisingly potent offense. The passing game, anchored by Jason Campbell is only ranked 22nd in the NFL with an average of 219.8 yards per game but they have proven that they are no slouches. With the 2nd ranked running game (161.8 yards per game), the pass is only necessary to set up the run anyhow. Darren McFadden leads the NFL in rushing through five weeks with 519 yards but he is coming off a substandard outing against Houston last week He and Michael Bush will look to bounce back and should have a ton of success against Cleveland`s 25th ranked run defense.
Oakland`s problem, surprisingly, has been their defensive play. They are 29th against the pass (299.60 yards per game), 22nd against the run (122.8 yards per game) and they are 31st in total defense allowing 438.6 yards per game. Oakland gives up 26.6 points per game – 28th in the NFL. Oakland`s defense is allowing teams to hang around. They have given up at least 400 yards in their last four starts and surrendered 473 yards to the Texans last week. Thank goodness for the rushing attack – Oakland has been dreadful defensively!
Betting Outlook: The Cleveland Browns are 4-1 SU in their last five games against Oakland but are just 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games overall. The Oakland Raiders have covered the spread in four of five games this season.
The Over could be an interesting play here too. Too weak defences will attempt to attack the others’ weakness. The Over is 4-1 in Cleveland`s last five games, is 5-1 in Oakland`s last six home games and is 6-3 in Oakland`s last nine overall.
Sunday`s showdown could easily serve as a bit of a letdown game for Oakland but the Raiders running game should be able to dominate Cleveland`s weak run defense. I like the Browns to keep it close for a while but for Darren McFadden to take over later in the game. The six points spread is tempting but look for the Raiders to pull away in the end.
Pick: Oakland Raiders -6 and the Over 44.5 points
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