Broncos vs Jaguars | Prediction & Pick

Sunday, September 12, 2010

vs.

Denver at Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS

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After starting the 2009 season 6-0 under first year head coach Josh McDaniel’s, the Broncos faded quickly ending the season behind the first place San Diego Chargers with a record of 8-8.

With all the hype surrounding Florida standout Tim Tebow, it seems that the Broncos may have forgotten to add a few more key players to better last season’s results.

Quarterback Kyle Orton has gotten the nod from McDaniels to start under center on Sunday and will look to get the Broncos back on track to a playoff spot this year.

After being acquired from Chicago as part of the Jay Cutler trade, Orton set career highs for passing yards with 3,802 and 21 touchdowns in his first season with Denver. His preseason showing was good, and he should be able to boost those stats this coming year.

Especially against the Jags, who have not been strong defensively, particularly in the pass rush department, as the team posted the fifth-worst sack total in NFL history a year ago. They have made one significant change, signing proven pass rusher Aaron Kampman, who is expected to raise those totals.

Still, Orton should have plenty of time to survey the field looking to connect with a corps of capable receivers and tight end Brandon Stokley, who didn’t have a breakout preseason, but still has the potential of being a solid option.

The ability to through the ball successfully will more than likely create opportunities for a fully healthy Knowshon Moreno to post some good numbers on the ground, as Jacksonville will not have the luxury of stacking the box.

Much of that success will rely heavily on an overhauled offensive line that was dotted with injuries last season, to block a middle-of-the-road defensive front.

Like the Broncos, Jacksonville fell victim to a late season collapse and finished the 2009 season 7-9 and out of playoff spot for a second successive season.

Offensively, RB Maurice Jones-Drew is still there most effective weapon, rushing for nearly 1,400 yards and scoring 16 touchdowns in 2009. He has scored 56 TDs the last four seasons, and has rushed for 125 yards and two TDs against the Broncos in 2008.

He could have a big day against an aging Denver D-line that had its share of struggles last season. They did however pick up a few nuts and bolts to shore it up over the offseason and All-Pro NT Jamal Williams will be the most notable.

This will be the year that QB David Garrard will need to prove himself. He has not been impressive over the last few seasons and he will need to step up his game if he wants to remain in Jacksonville.

He will face a tough challenge on Sunday as the Broncos secondary is still one of the best in the league led by veteran DB Champ Bailey and Andre’ Goodman, who combined for eight interceptions in 2009. They will stick like glue to the Jags receiving corps taking away passing lanes and wrecking havoc on Garrard’s opportunity to throw the ball downfield.

This will be a close contest, but Denver, unlike Jacksonville has made the necessary changes to improve on last year’s problem areas, and will walk away with an early season win on the road.

The odds makers have the Jaguars as a -2.5 point favorite with an over/under of 40.

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Denver Broncos Betting Trends:

  • Denver is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver’s last 5 games
  • Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver’s last 6 games on the road

Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Trends:

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville’s last 7 games
  • Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
  • Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville’s last 9 games at home

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