NFL Free Pick – Sunday, December 5, 2010
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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, December 5, 2010 at 1:00 PM EST on CBS
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The Chiefs will be looking to extend its lead in the AFC West by taking the second of two games against the visiting Broncos on Sunday.
Knowshon Moreno and Kyle Orton both had career days as Denver steamrolled the Kansas City Chiefs 49-29 at Mile High just four weeks ago.
The Broncos scored 21 points in the first quarter and by the half were leading 35-10. In that game Matt Cassel threw for 469 yards and four touchdowns, despite outscoring Denver in the second half, but could not overcome the deficit.
Cassel has completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 2,307 yards for 22 touchdowns and just four interceptions on the season, but the main contributor for the KC offense has been the power running back tandem of Jamaal Charles who has 1,021 and three touchdowns and Thomas Jones who has 712 yards and five touchdowns.
However, the ground threat is not the only worry for Denver as lofty wide out Dwayne Bowe is emerging as KC’s No. 1 receiver with 58 catches for 885 yards and 14 touchdowns.
For the Broncos, it’s been a tough year as the team has just three wins and is likely to miss the postseason for the fifth consecutive season.
The upside to Denver’s year is quarterback Kyle Orton who has completed 61.8 percent of his passes for 3,370 yards –first in the NFL– with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. Not bad considering Orton has been hurried, chased, and eventually sacked 29 times. His favorite target has been Brandon Lloyd with 58 catches for 1,122 yards and nine touchdowns. Lloyd has 32 catches and seven touchdowns in just the past three games
The downside, if you had to pick just one, has to be Denver’s dismal running game. RB Knowshawn Moreno has been the main ball carrier, but he has just 472 yards for the year and four touchdowns.
Equally as disappointing is the Broncos defense that has allowed 100 points in the past three games and has allowed an NFL-high 323 points under first-year defensive coordinator Don Martindale.
Those numbers are going to hurt when they face a Chiefs’ offense that has scored 102 points in the past three weeks.
Kansas City has enough pieces to win this one, with only its pass defense being in question. If they can halt Orton just a smidgen, they win this one to even the season series.
The odds makers have the Kansas City Chiefs as a -9 point favorite with an over/under of 48.5.
PREDICTION- Kansas City
Denver Broncos Betting Trends:
- Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver’s last 8 games
- Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
- Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends:
- Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 7 games
- Kansas City is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games at home
- Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
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