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Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, September 11, 2011
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Broadcast: CBS
Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Lines:
Spread: Kansas City -5 ½
Moneyline: Bills +210, Chiefs -250
Total: 40 points
The Kansas City Chiefs will open their 2011 campaign at home on Sunday versus a team that on paper may be improved from a season ago, the Buffalo Bills. After all the Bills certainly were a whole lot better than their 4-12 record from a year ago suggests. There is a little added intrigue ahead of this game – Buffalo coach Chan Gailey was let go by KC Coach Todd Haley shortly before the 2009 season.
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The Buffalo Bills looked very competitive, especially toward the end of last season but unfortunately came up short in a good number of games. Ryan Fitzpatrick entered and will exit training camp as the unquestioned #1 QB. He and Steve Johnson will be looking to build on what was a terrific 2010 season in which Johnson had over 1000 receiving yards and 10, yes 10 touchdowns.
The onus this year has to fall on the underachieving running back duo of Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. Both have all the talent in the world but have yet to put it all together for a full season. For Buffalo to make waves this season, the running game is going to have to be more of a catalyst.
Defensively, the Bills had to improve. A few players left via Free Agency but names like Nick Barnett and Shawne Merriman were brought in to fill the holes.
The Kansas City Chiefs had a breakout campaign in 2010 but will not catch anybody by surprise in 2011. They were solid from top to bottom last year and will be looking to take the next leap this season. There are already injury concerns for the club though – Matt Cassell is on the injury report and figures to at least be slowed this Sunday. His health is paramount for Dwayne Bowe and newly signed Steve Breaston. Rookie Tight End sensation from a year ago Tony Moeaki was lost for the season in the preseason leaving some enormous shoes to fill.
Jamaal Charles is obvious the key figure for the Chiefs on Sunday – he and Thomas Jones rushed for 274 yards against the Bills in October of last year, a game that KC squeaked out 13-10.
Defensively the Chiefs are younger and stronger with players like safety Eric Berry, LB Tamba Hali and linemen Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson just coming into the prime of their careers. They are an under the radar unit but formidable just the same.
Betting Outlook: If nothing else, the Chiefs locker room has been spirited this offseason – a fight between Thomas Jones and rookie receiver Jonathan Baldwin highlighted an otherwise average Chiefs camp. Kansas City certainly has some pieces in place but their success is predicated on having their whole team at full strength. With Cassell injured this game could be closer than most expect. The score was 13-10 last year between the clubs – I see the same this year. Take the pesky Bills to at least cover the 5 ½ points.
The odds makers have the Kansas City Chiefs as a -5.5 point favorite with an over/under of 40.
Pick: Buffalo Bills +5 ½
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Buffalo Bills Betting Trends:
- Buffalo is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo’s last 10 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 7 games on the road
- Buffalo is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends:
- Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games
- Kansas City is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
- Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
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