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BUFFALO BILLS (3-0) vs. CINCINNATI BENGALS (1-2)
When: Sunday, October 2, 1:00 PM ET
Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
Broadcast: CBS
Spread: Buffalo Bills -3
Moneyline: Buffalo Bills -175, Cincinnati Bengals +155
Total: 44 points
It has been a long time since anyone was talking about the Buffalo Bills as a contender in possibly the toughest division in football but a 3-0 start has an unfamiliar spotlight pointed directly at them. The Bills will try to go 4-0 when they head to Cincinnati on Sunday as three point favorites.
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What can we say about the Buffalo Bills? They are a confident bunch that is never out of a game. Against the Patriots last week this team really showed something. Offensively they are hitting on all cylinders and defensively they are… well let’s just say competitive. If the defense could slow anybody down, this team would be even better.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the answer in Buffalo. Although he can look rough at times, he can look great at others. He has completed 64.9 % of his passes so far this season for 841 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions – 369 yards, two TDs, 2 Ints last week. Steve Johnson and David Nelson each have 20 catches already – there are some weapons at Fitzpatrick’s disposal.
What’s different about the Bills this season is that teams have to respect the ground game – Fred Jackson is fourth in the league in rushing with 303 yards and he has scored three times. Add in Jackson’s newfound pass catching abilities and this offense is legit.
Cincinnati is off to a predicted 1-2 start but things are looking up for that franchise as well. Andy Dalton has stepped in and played well – the numbers don’t jump out at you but he has been solid. AJ Green looks like the real deal at WR and with dangerous Tight End Jermaine Gresham, the Bengals are formidable in the passing game. Cedric Benson’s is facing a suspension and Bernard Scott may be the running back on Sunday however – a downgrade for certain at running back.
Defensively the Bills have been giving up their share of yards – 27th ranked and giving up 387.7 yards per game. Cincinnati is third in that category giving up 276 yards per game.
The odds makers have the Buffalo Bills as a -3 point favorite with an over/under of 44.
Betting Outlook: The Buffalo Bills are 8-0 SU in their last eight games against Cincinnati and are 7-1 ATS in those eight. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Cincinnati. The Cincinnati Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the AFC and are 7-2 ATS as a home underdog. However the Bengals are just 4-9 SU in their last 13 at home.
The bottom line here is that the Bengals are going to have to score a lot of points to keep up in this game and I just don’t see it happening. Buffalo could be due for a letdown after their emotional game versus the Pats last week but I think this is a good football club that should be able to maintain their high level of play. The Bills will score more than enough to cover the 3 points!
Pick: Buffalo Bills -3
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Buffalo Bills Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 5 games
- Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
- Buffalo is 8-14-1 SU in its last 23 games
- Buffalo is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games at home
Cincinnati Bengals Betting Trends:
- Cincinnati is 3-13-1 SU in its last 17 games
- Cincinnati is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games
- Cincinnati is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games at home
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