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CINCINNATI BENGALS (2-2) vs. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (1-3)
When: Sunday, October 9, 1:00 PM ET
Where: EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Broadcast: CBS
Spread: Jaguars -1 ½
Moneyline: Bengals +115, Jaguars -135
Total: 37.5 points
An interesting matchup of teams with rookie quarterbacks comes our way on Sunday when the 2-2 Cincinnati Bengals take on the 1-3 Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bengals were impressive last week in knocking off one of the two remaining unbeaten teams, Buffalo while the Jags looked OK but lost their third straight game.
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Cincinnati has already exceeded expectations. With Carson Palmer gone and Cedric Benson in hot water once again, Cincinnati has rallied behind Andy Dalton and a defense that nobody saw coming. If anyone would have suggested that the Bengals could be over .500 with five games gone in the 2011 season, they would have been laughed out of the building.
Offensively, Cincinnati hasn’t been anything special. Their passing game is 22nd in the NFL with an average of 225.2 yards per game and their young quarterback is 17th in the league with an unflattering 76.9 QB rating. Andy Dalton has tossed four interceptions versus just one touchdown in his last two games including a decent 298 yards, one touchdown, and two interception game versus Buffalo. The Bengals have some pieces in place in the passing game however – AJ Green seems to be the real deal and Jermaine Gresham is one of the most exciting young Tight End prospects in the game.
The Bengals’ offensive success can be tied to Cedric Benson, who, at any time, could be handed a league suspension for off-field issues. Benson was terrific last week rumbling for 104 yards in their win.
Defense has been the story of Cincinnati’s season so far. They are the #1 unit in the NFL allowing 275.5 yards per game. This unit has surrendered an average of 18.5 points per game although they are average against the run – 16th ranked and giving up 107 yards per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have not looked good at all the last three weeks. They have scored a total of 23 points in those games. Blaine Gabbert has been thrown to the wolves and is expected to perform with Mike Thomas as his best receiving threat. Overall, Jacksonville ranks 31st in offense with an average of 264.2 yards per game and they are dead last with an average of just 9.8 points per game.
The run is definitely Jacksonville’s strong suit – 6th in the NHL with 126.8 yards per game. Maurice Jones Drew currently ranks 3rd in the league with 97.8 yards per game on the ground. It is safe to say that rushing will be their key to victory – the passing game is only generating 137 yards per contest.
Betting Outlook: The Cincinnati Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on the road and are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games versus Jacksonville. The Jaguars have won four of the last five games against Cincinnati and are 7-0 and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games versus the Bengals.
Cincinnati’s only defensive weakness plays right into the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars but the Jags will need more than just a running game to defeat the fairly well rounded Bengals. In a low scoring game, expect Cedric Benson to be as effective as Maurice Jones-Drew and for Andy Dalton to outshine Blaine Gabbert. In a low scoring, run heavy game; take the road team to cover the spread.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +1 ½ and the Under – 37.5 points
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