AFC Matchups- Wildcard Weekend
The Wildcard Round of the NFL playoffs features two games in each conference. The first pits the highest-seeded divisional winner at home against the lowest-seeded wildcard team and the second has the other divisional winner (fourth seed) hosting the other wildcard team (fifth seed). The top two seeds in each conference have earned a bye and will face the winners of the Wildcard Round in next weekend’s Divisional Round.
Here is a preview and prediction for the two games on tap in the AFC this upcoming Saturday and Sunday. All odds quoted are courtesy of betED.com
Saturday, January 8
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
Pointspread: Colts -2 ½
Over/Under: 44 ½
The Jets are looking to avenge last season’s 30-17 loss to Indianapolis in the AFC Championship Game in which Peyton Manning had a field day picking their vaunted secondary apart. This year’s version of Rex Ryan’s Gang Green defense is not as formidable as last season’s but still capable of shutting any team down on a given day. The defense finished the regular season ranked third overall; sixth against the pass and third against the run. It gave up an average of 19 points per game which was sixth best in the league.
The Colts have endured numerous injuries on both sides of the ball but still found a way to win 10 games, the AFC South, and the third seed in the playoffs. The offense lost two of its best receivers in Dallas Clarke and Austin Collie, so it will once again be up to Peyton Manning to manufacture a win utilizing the back-up players he has around him. It is doubtful Indianapolis will be able to effectively run the ball, so look Manning to try and get it to guys like WR’s Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon along with TE Jacob Tamme to move the offense up and down the field.
New York is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 road games and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 against the AFC. Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as the favorite and 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. The total has gone ‘over’ in the last four meetings. This time around, the Jets will have the ability to grind out a win on the ground against a team that is not nearly as dominating at last year’s.
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Sunday, January 9
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Pointspread: Ravens -2 ½
Over/Under: 41
The Ravens find themselves in the exact same position as last year’s playoffs but instead of having to go into Foxborough to pull off the upset, they will go on the road as a favorite at Arrowhead. The biggest thing in Baltimore’s favor in this game is experience. This team has a solid running game behind Ray Rice and a shutdown defense led by Ray Lewis. It will look to exploit Kansas City’s youth by forcing some turnovers which would give the offense a short field to put some points on the board.
The Chiefs have certainly played well enough to get into the playoffs, but the big question is can they continue to play at a level that keeps them from an early exit? Kansas City will try and mirror Baltimore in this game with a heavy dose of the running game and utilizing a defense that can not only stop the run, but make life miserable for Raven QB Joe Flacco. Much of the Chiefs’ success this season stems from the fact they had a turnover ratio of +9. If they can avoid the costly mistakes that often plague a young team in the playoffs, they have a chance to win this game.
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last four Wildcard games and 4-1-1 ATS in its last six road games overall. Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against the AFC and 0-4 ATS in its last four playoff games. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of the Ravens’ last five playoff games and in four of the Chiefs’ last five games overall. Take Baltimore to grind out an ugly win to possibly set up a rematch with the Patriots next week.
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