AFC West Week 1 Preview & Picks

NFL AFC West Week 1 Preview

There are three games on tap this week for all AFC West teams starting on Sunday and ending with the second of a Monday Night Football up with between conference rivals San Diego and the Kansas City Chiefs. Let’s take a look at each Week 1 match up. Don’t forget to check back every week as I will be giving you my free picks for the AFC West all season long right here on sportbooklists.com.

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SUN, SEP 12 TIME (ET)

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Oakland at Tennessee 1:00 PM CBS – The Raiders seem to be doing much better without JaMarcus Russell and finished their preseason campaign with three wins. That’s just two less than what the team had at the end of the 2009 season, finishing 5-11 for their seventh straight season under .500.

Most of that success has been from the revamping of a defense that was ranked 26th in total team defense while 29th against the run a year ago. However, they did rank 7th against the pass, with a solid pass rush that racked up 37 sacks.

But it’s not just the defense that has shown improvement, the emergence of quarterback Jason Campbell has been the spark to ignite the Raiders anemic offense that averaged less than 15 points per game.

But can Campbell carry the load for 16 games alone?  Probably not, but he won’t have to. He will surely have plenty of help, starting with RB Darren McFadden along with some speedy receivers come Sunday.

The defense will be instrumental in the teams match up against the Titans who come at them with one of the best running backs in the league–Chris Johnson, who will be hoping the Raiders’ defense will give him a healthy start on his way to breaking Eric Dickerson’s NFL season record of 2,105 rushing yards.

If that’s not enough to worry about, Oakland will have to contend with dual threat quarterback Vince Young who threw for nearly 1,900 yards and 10 TDs after coming off the bench a year ago in replacement of a struggling Kerry Collins. You can be sure the 27-year old will be itching to get a good start at leading Tennessee back to the top of the AFC South with an early win at home over Oakland.

If the Raiders can’t force the Titans to try and beat them in the air, this one will go to Tennessee.

The odds makers have the Titans as a -6 point favorite with an over/under of 40.5.

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Denver at Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS – After starting the 2009 season 6-0 under first year head coach Josh McDaniel’s, the Broncos faded quickly ending the season behind the first place San Diego Chargers with a record of 8-8.

With all the hype surrounding Florida standout Tim Tebow, it seems that the Broncos may have forgotten to add a few more key players to better last season’s results.

Quarterback Kyle Orton has gotten the nod from McDaniels to start under center on Sunday and will look to get the Broncos back on track to a playoff spot this year.

After being acquired from Chicago as part of the Jay Cutler trade, Orton set career highs for passing yards with 3,802 and 21 touchdowns in his first season with Denver. His preseason showing was good, and he should be able to boost those stats this coming year.

Especially against the Jags, who have not been strong defensively, particularly in the pass rush department, as the team posted the fifth-worst sack total in NFL history a year ago. They have made one significant change, signing proven pass rusher Aaron Kampman, who is expected to raise those totals.

Still, Orton should have plenty of time to survey the field looking to connect with a corps of capable receivers and tight end Brandon Stokley, who didn’t have a breakout preseason, but still has the potential of being a solid option.

The ability to through the ball successfully will more than likely create opportunities for a fully healthy Knowshon Moreno to post some good numbers on the ground, as Jacksonville will not have the luxury of stacking the box.

Much of that success will rely heavily on an overhauled offensive line that was dotted with injuries last season, to block a middle-of-the-road defensive front.

Like the Broncos, Jacksonville fell victim to a late season collapse and finished the 2009 season 7-9 and out of playoff spot for a second successive season.

Offensively, RB Maurice Jones-Drew is still there most effective weapon, rushing for nearly 1,400 yards and scoring 16 touchdowns in 2009. He has scored 56 TDs the last four seasons, and has rushed for 125 yards and two TDs against the Broncos in 2008.

He could have a big day against an aging Denver D-line that had its share of struggles last season. They did however pick up a few nuts and bolts to shore it up over the offseason and All-Pro NT Jamal Williams will be the most notable.

This will be the year that QB David Garrard will need to prove himself. He has not been impressive over the last few seasons and he will need to step up his game if he wants to remain in Jacksonville.

He will face a tough challenge on Sunday as the Broncos secondary is still one of the best in the league led by veteran DB Champ Bailey and Andre’ Goodman, who combined for eight interceptions in 2009. They will stick like glue to the Jags receiving corps taking away passing lanes and wrecking havoc on Garrard’s opportunity to throw the ball downfield.

This will be a close contest, but Denver, unlike Jacksonville has made the necessary changes to improve on last year’s problem areas, and will walk away with an early season win on the road.

The odds makers have the Jaguars as a -2.5 point favorite with an over/under of 40.

MON, SEP 13 TIME (ET)

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San Diego at Kansas City 10:15 PM – All eyes will be on QB Philip Rivers as well as heralded Tomlinson replacement, rookie RB Ryan Mathews, as both will be expected to lift San Diego to its  fifth straight AFC title in 2010.

After the release of LaDainian Tomlinson there were a lot of questions if the Chargers could repeat their 2009 finish, going 13-3 with the second-best record in the AFC.

Enter Matthews, the Chargers 12th pick in April’s draft who led the FBS with 150.7 rushing yards per game last year at Fresno State. And let’s don’t forget San Diego still has Rivers, who has been a main ingredient for an offense that led the AFC with 28.4 points per game, throwing for a career-best 4,254 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2009.

Of course, he will be without one of his favorite targets in unsigned wide receiver Vincent Jackson who has been suspended by the NFL for the first three games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

So it’s likely that Matthews will see a lot of action in his first start against a KC defense that was ranked 31st against the run last season, allowing an average of 156.5 yards.

But only part of the Chiefs demise can be blamed on the defense, the offense also played a major part in plummeting KC to a dismal 4-12 finish in 2009, averaging just over 26 points per game — fourth-worst in the NFL.

But Norv Turner has endorsed second-year QB Matt Cassel, claiming the six –year veteran has improved his game as well as his ability to step up and lead the team.

Cassel passed for nearly 3,000 yards with 16 touchdowns last season but seemed to have trouble finding surveying the field tossing 16 picks, including four interceptions in the two games against the Chargers. Something he will need to avoid come Monday night.

It’s likely that KC will opt to attack San Diego on the ground for the most part as the Chargers run stoppers-20^th in 2009—are going to see a lot of running back Jamaal Charles.

Charles has the skills, rushing for 1,120 yards in 10 starts, and averaging 5.9 yards per carry, tying him for the best in the NFL a year ago. In his only start against the Chargers last season, Charles rushed for 93 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries.

The revamped San Diego offense should fare well against a KC team who they have had dominated of late, winning five straight meetings, outscoring them 80-21. I am afraid the Chiefs will have a better chance at their first victory when the face Cleveland at the Dawg Pound in Week 2.

The odds makers have the Chargers as a -4.5 point favorite with an over/under of 45.

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