AFC Week Five Previews & Match Ups

In week four of the NFL season, some statements were made in the AFC. Two teams, Baltimore and the N.Y. Jets fell from the ranks of the unbeaten. The Ravens fell to the Patriots 27-21 as Tom Brady was able to generate just enough offense to get the win. The Saints’ defense was the key to the Jets 24-10 loss in New Orleans. Rookie QB Matt Stafford finally looked like a rookie as his four turnovers led to 14 points which proved to be the margin of difference. Denver continues to shock everyone taking their record to 4-0 after a big win over the Cowboys at Mile High Stadium. The Bronco’s defense continues to dominate as they were able to shut down the Dallas’ running game and confuse QB Tony Romo who seemed unsteady in the pocket all day long. The Cleveland-Cincinnati game was 7 seconds away from ending in a tie, when Bengal K Shayne Graham kicked a 31 yard game winning field goal. Miami got their first win of the season, pounding Buffalo 38-10. The Titans fell to 0-4 on the year after their defense completely collapsed in a 37-17 loss to Jacksonville. Pittsburgh avoided a third straight loss with an impressive 38-28 win over San Diego.

Moving onto week five in the AFC the key match ups we will be reviewing are; Cincinnati@ Baltimore, New England @ Denver, and the New York Jets @ Miami.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-9)                Current Over/Under 41.5

This game is for first place in the AFC North as both teams come in with identical 3-1 records. With wins over the Browns and Steelers, the Bengals could go to 3-0 in the division giving them the early edge. For this to happen QB Carson Palmer will have to play mistake free ball, as the Ravens’ defense has a knack for turning turnovers into touchdowns. Baltimore will have to rebound quickly from their loss to New England as penalties and mistakes at crucial points in the game cost them dearly. This game should be an aerial circus as both Palmer and Raven QB Joe Flacco have been airing out all season long. Baltimore is ranked 3rd in points scored averaging 31 points per game, while Cincinnati is averaging 21 points per game. Look for Baltimore to cover; winning this game by 10, but the stronger bet would be on the over as these two teams may pass 41 by halftime.

New England Patriots (-4) @ Denver Broncos Current Over/Under 41.5

The Patriots are 3-1 but have not looked as impressive as they have in the past. Offensively they are ranked 8th overall in total yards, but 14th in points scored. With one of Brady’s favorite targets, WR Wes Welker back in the lineup these numbers should improve. They have also had some problems on defense, giving up an average of 18 points a game. That being said they always seem to still find a way to win the game. Denver has taken everyone by surprise winning their first four games while only giving up 26 total points. Granted, their level of competition has not been the strongest, but none the less along with the Colts they are they are one of two undefeated teams left in the AFC. This game will be the first real test for Denver offense,  as they will need to put some points on the board to get the win. I see a close hard fought battle with Patriots coming out on top by 7. The Denver defense will play well enough keep this game under.

New York Jets (-1) @ Miami Dolphins Current Over/Under 36.5

Jets QB Mark Sanchez played like veteran in his first three starts, but looked like a rookie in the game against the Saints. The big question mark for this game is his ability to put last week’s disaster behind him and get back to the fundamentals that brought him his early success. Fortunately for New York their defense is still playing great as they actually held the New Orleans’ offense to only 10 points. Miami finally looked like last year’s team getting their first win of the year. With the #1 ranked rushing offense in the league, led by Ronnie Brown they have to find a way to control this game get an early lead as they will have no chance to win if they have to play from behind. I’m going out on a limb here picking the Dolphins to get their second win of the year. I do not expect all that much scoring, so I’m sticking with the under as well.

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