The one thing that has remained constant in the first 12 weeks in the AFC is that the Colts always find a way to win. This is especially true the past few weeks. The last time they blew a team out was back in week seven when they beat St. Louis 42-7. Since then they have won their last four games by a combined ten points including a 17-15 win over Baltimore last week. This week they face a Houston team that has lost quite a few close games including Monday night’s 20-17 loss to the Titans when once again K Kris Brown missed a makeable field goal to tie the game. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati both were upset as huge favorites when the Steelers lost 27-24 in overtime to the Chiefs and the Bengals handed a 20-17 win to Oakland on Andre Caldwell’s fumble of a kick off late in the game that set up the winning field goal for the Raiders. San Diego seized control of the AFC West by crushing Denver 32-3. This was the Broncos fourth straight loss after a 6-0 start and the Chargers fifth straight win after a 2-3 start. Jacksonville has played themselves back in contention for a wildcard spot after beating the Bills 18-15 for their fourth win in their last five games. 7-3 New England held onto a two game lead in the AFC East with a 31-14 win over the Jets, while the 5-5 Dolphins behind the running of 32 year old Ricky Williams beat Carolina 24-17 on Thursday night.
Moving onto week twelve in the AFC the key match ups we will be reviewing are; Miami @ Buffalo, Indianapolis @ Houston, and Pittsburgh @ Baltimore.
Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Buffalo Bills Current Over/Under 40
The Dolphins have lost their starting quarterback, their top running back, and played one of the toughest schedules in the league and are in position to not only make the playoffs but still win their division. With a huge rematch against New England in two weeks they have to be careful to not look past this game with the Bills. Miami will have to rely heavily on the legs of 32 year old RB Ricky Williams if they hope to keep winning. Last week he rushed for 119 yards and three TD’s but it remains to be seen if he can handle the load down the stretch. At 3-7 Buffalo is playing for pride as they begin their search for a new head coach to try and change the team’s fortunes. With nothing on the line it makes you wonder what kind of effort they will put forth in this game. I’m going with the Dolphins and the OVER in this game.
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) @ Houston Texans Current Over/Under 49
The Colts are a perfect 10-0 and clearly in the driver seat for home field advantage throughout the playoffs in the AFC. They have a three game lead over every other division leader and a four game lead in the AFC South. Lately they have not been the offensive power they were earlier in the year, as their defense has carried this team over the past few weeks. They are ranked 1st in points allowed only giving up an average of 15.7 points per game. Houston will need to play mistake free ball if they have any hope of winning this game; something that has not been their strength. Their offense is ranked 9th overall and 3rd in passing yards, but mistakes, penalties, turnovers, and missed field goals have cost them dearly. At 5-5 they have little room for error if they hope to make the postseason for the first time in franchise history. With the pressure on, I like the Texans and the UNDER.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-3) Current Over/Under 41
Both these teams are at a crossroads in their season. The Steelers have lost two straight and while they are still only one game behind Cincinnati in the AFC North with a 6-4 record, their dream of a second straight Super Bowl victory is fading fast. Injuries are starting to pile up as there are holes popping up on both sides of the ball. Their biggest loss has been S Troy Polamalu who has missed five games so far and could be out for a few more weeks with another knee injury. Without him in the lineup they are 2-3. Baltimore started the season 3-0 but has gone on to lose five of the next seven games and are sitting at 5-5 on the year. While they have been in every game they have lost, this team does not seem to have what it takes to come out of these tight match-ups with a win. Last week’s two point loss to the Colts is a perfect example of what is wrong as QB Joe Flacco is struggling and the defense cannot make a stop when they need it the most. The loser of this game is in deep trouble and the winner gets a chance to keep battling another week longer. I’m taking the Steelers and the UNDER.
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