49ers at Colts: Smith will lead Niners to cover, but not victory over Colts

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts

Sun. November 1 at 1:00 p.m. ET

NFL odds: -11.5

With the sudden emergence of Alex Smith, this game has some intrigue on sports picks. The Niners lost a tight contest with Houston last week, but there were some serious positives—most notably Smith’s unexpected explosion. The former No. 1 overall pick subbed for the ineffective Shaun Hill and was, to be honest, very good. Smith threw three touchdown passes and brought San Fran back from a 21-0 deficit. He obviously has some chemistry with Vernon Davis, who caught all three scores, and rookie receiver Michael Crabtree enjoyed an excellent debut, catching five passes for 56 yards.

Speaking of former No. 1 overall picks, Peyton Manning is having another MVP-worthy season. He’s tossed 15 scores against just four interceptions during Indy’s 6-0 run, and Manning has surpassed the 300-yard mark in five of those victories. He’s yet to benefit from a particularly strong running game, which posses concerns long-term. For now, though, it’s the Peyton Manning show and nobody can stop it.

A few weeks ago, some sportsbook fans might have argued Mike Singletary’s defense could slow Manning, but the “D” has taken a turn for the worse. The 49ers allowed 21 first-half points to the Texans after getting blasted for 45 by the Falcons two weeks ago. San Francisco did tighten up in the second half against Houston, holding the explosive unit to a field goal.

The Colts defense has been lights out this year, ranking second in the NFL in points allowed per game at 12.8. Indianapolis hasn’t faced a high-powered attack yet (the last three games came against the Rams, Titans and Seahawks) so you’re within good reason to be somewhat skeptical about the defense, but the Niners aren’t any better offensively than the other teams Indy has faced.

Can the 49ers get back on track while snapping Indy’s perfect record? On the road, not every likely. But San Francisco might be able to give Indy a game, especially if Smith’s resurgence is for real. Even with slightly above average quarterbacking this offense looks much better; they don’t have the horses to compete on Breeders’ Cup odds but, thanks to Davis, Crabtree and Frank Gore, they can maybe stay in the rearview mirror of Indy. A Niners win isn’t in the cards, but San Fran will keep this game close; bet on San Fran to cover on your NFL picks.