Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Western Kentucky 2008 Record: (2-10, 0-0)
Western Kentucky 2008 Bowl: none
Western Kentucky Coach: David Elson (39-32 at Western Kentucky, 39-32 overall)
Western Kentucky Offensive Coordinator: Walter Wells
Western Kentucky Defensive Coordinator: Mike Dietzel
Western Kentucky Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Tyrell Hayden, RB, 388 yards
• Passing: Dexter Taylor, RB, 53 yards
• Receiving: Jake Gaebler, WR, 588 yards
• Tackles: Blake Boyd, LB, 67
• Sacks: Blake Boyd, LB, 3.5
• Interceptions: Ryan Beard, S, 3

Notable Western Kentucky Returning Players: RB Marell Booker, CB Trent Calhoun, WR Quinterrance Cooper, WR Wenquel Graves, G Cody Hughes, OT Wes Jeffries, OT Preston King, LB Darvis McBride, P Jeremy Moore, C Lloyd Pressley

Western Kentucky Key Losses: DT Kyle Anderson, DE Jon Belcher, QB K.J. Black, DE Dan Cline, DE Robert Dark, LB Alonzo Higgins, CB Marcus Minor, G Greg Ryan, LB Ben Sowders, S Travis Watters, QB David Wolke

2009 is a historic year for Western Kentucky, as the Hilltoppers enter their first full season as both a Division One football school and as a full member of the Sun Belt conference. Last year’s 2-10 mark broke a 12 year streak of winning football at WKU as the Hilltoppers transitioned up and there were a lot of growing pains. In fact, their only two wins came against the only two D-1AA schools that they played, so it was pretty obvious that they had some more growing to do. With only 12 starters back this fall, expect a lot more growing pains.

Offensively, there are two bright spots. One is the return of four starters on the offensive line. Last year’s offensive struggles aside, the line was beat up all year long and should benefit from a schedule which featured mostly top tier teams. The other bright spot is at tailback, where senior Tyrell Haden was also injured last fall. However, the year before he ran for over 1,400 yards and should have a decent chance at reaching 1,000 yards this fall. At receiver, senior Jake Gaebler had a solid 2008, catching 54 balls for almost 600 yards and 4 touchdowns. Expect him to be the top target for whoever wins the quarterback derby. Overall, this offense looks like a slightly improved unit which should at least surpass last year’s conference-worst 17.5 points per game average and could be a lot better if Haden can return to his D-1AA productivity of two years ago.

The defense was actually fairly decent last year, allowing 27.5 points per game and less than 400 yards of total offense. However, most of that unit is gone as only 5 starters are back. The defensive line lost nearly everyone as their entire two deep has departed (WKU plays a 3-4 defense), making the Hilltopper line a very big question mark. The linebackers are significantly less depleted as three starters return, led by seniors Blake Boyd and Darvis McBride. I expect the veteran linebacker corps to be a solid group. The secondary is a fairly big concern as well, considering that their only two returning starters are sophomores. However, I think they could find themselves in a position where their young starters could progress even further as they assume the mantle of leadership and WKU should have a solid pass defense once more. However, their D-Line is a huge concern and I expect this to cause WKU to take a step back on defense this fall.

The conference schedule isn’t the most daunting as the Hilltoppers have a few winnable home games. However, they do face a stretch where four of five games are away from home and that won’t make things any easier. The non-conference schedule is also pretty tough, including trips to Tennessee and Navy and a visit from South Florida, the first BCS school to visit WKU in Bowling Green, Kentucky. Overall, the Hilltoppers are still in their football infancy at the sport’s highest collegiate level and their talent is still catching up to the rest of the conference. While I expect Western Kentucky to improve this fall, I still don’t see them winning any more than four games at absolute most. Patience will be the key word for the Hilltopper faithful this fall.

Western Kentucky Big Games: Sept. 12th vs. South Florida, Oct. 10th vs. FIU, Oct. 17th vs. Louisiana, Nov. 7th vs. Troy

Western Kentucky’s Strength:

The Hilltoppers lost all their games against FBS competition last year, but the defense is good and has plenty of potential to at least make some games interesting. It is the back seven where the most experienced players return. Linebacker Blake Boyd is a superb outside linebacker who fits into the team’s 3-4 scheme very well. He only tallied 3.5 sacks in 2008, but he did lead the team and could do so again. With fellow senior linebackers Darvis McBride, L.J. Harrison and Taurean Smith also returning, this is an extremely experienced group. The secondary is very young, but sophomores Trent Calhoun and Ryan Beard started last year and are only getting better. No starters return to the front line and it will be very important for the group of newcomers to get some pressure into the backfield.

Western Kentucky’s Weakness:

The Hilltoppers offense was plain bad last year and now they lost quarterback David Wolke. Wolke was certainly not a great quarterback, but he could make plays with his feet and had a decent arm. K.J. Black would have been the next quarterback, but he opted to transfer. That leaves a huge question mark under center. Brandon Smith should be the guy, but his spring was average at best and a host of redshirt freshmen will try and take the job away from him in the fall. Whoever the quarterback is, they will have Jake Gaebler on their side. The 5-11 senior caught 54 passes for 588 yards and four touchdowns last year, but he will need time to adjust to his new quarterback. In the meantime, WKU will rely on Tyrell Hayden and the ground game. Hayden rarely got the opportunity to show his stuff last year as he only carried the ball 92 times for 388 yards, but with a majority of the offensive line returning, the ground attack should be better.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Hilltoppers:

Western Kentucky might sound like one of the worst teams in the nation, and they probably will be this year, but the program is already on the rise. The recruiting has been great lately under Coach David Elson and the future is very, very bright. WKU may have lost all five games they played against Sun Belt opponents last year, but they should be able to eek out a win or two this time around…especially since North Texas has to come to Bowling Green.

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