Virginia Cavaliers 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Virginia 2008 Record: (5-7, 3-5)
Virginia 2008 Bowl: none
Virginia Coach: Al Groh (56-44 at Virginia, 82-84 overall)
Virginia Offensive Coordinator: Gregg Brandon
Virginia Defensive Coordinator: Al Groh
Virginia Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Mikell Simpson, RB, 262 yards
• Passing: Marc Verica, QB, 2,037 yards
• Receiving: Rashawn Jackson, FB, 79 yards
• Tackles: Vic Hall, CB, 59
• Sacks: John-Kevin Dolce, DT, 4.0
• Interceptions: Ras-I Dowling, CB, 3

Notable Virginia Returning Players: OT Will Barker, LB Denzel Burrell, DT Nate Collins, DE Matt Conrath, G B.J. Cabbell, DT Nick Jenkins, S Corey Mosley, G Austin Pasztor, C Jack Shields

Virginia Key Losses: LB Antonio Appleby, LB Jon Cooper, WR Maurice Covington, DE Alex Field, S Byron Glaspy, WR Cary Koch, OT Eugene Monroe, WR Kevin Ogletree, RB Cedric Peerman, TE John Phillips, LB Clint Sintim

Virginia head coach Al Groh should teach a course in survival after he finishes his coaching career. Widely rumored to be on the chopping block the last few seasons, Groh has managed to hold onto his job despite fielding two losing teams in the last three year. After losing his quarterback from a nine win team in 2007 to academic issues last fall, Groh’s squad finished 5-7, losing to archrival Virginia Tech for the 5th consecutive season and 9 th time in the last ten years. The lost quarterback returns after a year in the proverbial desert and might be Groh’s best hope to cling to his job for another season. Can the Cavaliers compete despite returning the second fewest starters in the conference?

That returning quarterback is senior Jameel Sewell, who spent last season away coaching at a Charlottesville area high school to keep his skill polished. Sewell led the Cavs to the best record in Groh’s tenure in 2007 and will be relied upon to improve the conference’s worst offense from last season. He will benefit from playing behind a solid offensive line which returns four starters from last year. However, the Cavs averaged less than a hundred rush yards per game last fall and the linemen will need to step it up to improve that stat this season. Unfortunately, senior Mikell Simpson is the team’s top rusher back after running for only 262 yards last fall, so the Cavs are lacking a proven feature back. Keep an eye on redshirt freshman Torrey Mack, who was a highly rated recruit two years ago and could be primed for the job. The receivers are also a gigantic question mark as the top five pass catchers are gone and Simpson is the leading returnee with a paltry 15 catches. While Sewell is a huge upgrade from last year’s signal callers, who threw 20 picks against only 9 touchdowns, there are still a ton of questions to be answered. I expect Virginia to score more than last season’s unbelievably bad 16 points per game but this will still probably be one of the ACC’s most ineffective offenses.

One thing that Groh can hang his hat on every year is that he consistently fields a solid defense. As he doubles as the defensive coordinator, he does deserve a lot of the credit. Last season’s biggest issue was the run defense, which was beaten to the tune of 150 yards per game. With two returning sophomore starters, both of whom should be significantly better with another year in the strength program under their belts, I think that the Cavaliers could be much improved on the line in Groh’s 3-4 defense. Senior linebacker Denzel Burrell is the only starter back after ringing up 48 tackles but the three lost starters were the team’s top three tacklers and Clint Simtim turned out to be a 2nd round NFL draft pick! There are going to be some growing pains this fall and the talent drain is the biggest reason that I don’t think that Virginia will be noticeably improved this year against the run. The secondary is very talented, highlighted by the cornerback pairing of senior Vic Hall (59 tackles, 2 picks) and 2nd team All-ACC junior Ras-I Dowling (43 tackles, 3 picks). Hall moonlighted as a big play runner on offense last fall and this could be one of the stronger pairings in the league. Sophomore safety Corey Mosley was also solid last fall and should be much improved with a year’s experience under his belt. The secondary is definitely the strength of the defense and I’m concerned that all of the lost talent at linebacker will prevent the Cavaliers from fielding one of the conference’s better defenses this fall. Expect another solid but unspectacular performance.

The schedule is interesting. While a visit from perennial doormat Indiana is the only BCS non-conference matchup, the Cavs also host TCU and travel to Southern Mississippi, meaning that they play two of the best non-BCS teams in the country. The conference schedule is much more reasonable as they close with four home games in the final six weeks and their Atlantic division draw features games against Boston College and Maryland, neither of whom is expected to contend. The schedule is set up well enough that the Cavaliers could surprise some teams this fall. The biggest question is whether Al Groh is in the process of becoming the new Tommy Bowden: The head coach who recruits well and wins just enough games to hold onto his job for a decade. While perhaps that isn’t fair to a two time ACC Coach of the Year, it is also the unfortunate truth as he was only saved by a mid-season winning streak last year; much like Bowden was for much of his tenure at Clemson. Groh’s squad should score more points this fall and play solid defense once more but they’re not going to contend for the division title. However, if they can manage to pull a winning record outside of conference play, Groh could continue to do his best Bowden impersonation by earning a bowl berth and another year in charge in Charlottesville.

Virginia Big Games: Oct. 3rd @ UNC, Oct. 17th @ Maryland, Oct. 24th vs. Georgia Tech, Oct. 31st vs. Duke, Nov. 14th vs. BC, Nov. 28th vs. Virginia Tech

Virginia ‘s Strength:

By the numbers the defense was not that spectacular last year, but there are plenty of pieces to build around. The front four did a solid job getting into the opposition’s backfield and Nick Jenkins, Nate Collins and John-Kevin Dolce are good pieces to build around in the middle of the line and end Matt Conrath is back after tallying three sacks as a freshman and could turn into the next great pass rusher to come out of Virginia. If the front three can manage to get into the backfield, the secondary will have a much easier time shutting down the passing game. Cornerback Ras-I Dowling is probably the best player on the team and fellow corner Vic Hall is the team’s leading returning tackler. Even sophomore safety Corey Mosley showed signs of brilliance as a freshman.

Virginia ‘s Weakness:

The problem on defense is the linebackers. In the 3-4 system it is extremely important to have some quality, athletic linebackers. Virginia certainly had some of those last year with Antonio Appleby, Jon Cooper and Clint Sintim. Now those three are gone, Sintim will be playing in the NFL and the Cavaliers have three huge holes to fill. Junior Denzel Burrell is the lone returning starter and he will have to emerge as the leader of the unit while the coaching staff figures out who to plug in around him. It gets worse on the other side of the ball. The offense continually struggled last year and that was with Eugene Monroe, one of the best offensive tackles in the nation, anchoring the line. Most of the receivers are gone and so is running back Cedric Peerman. There is a lot of rebuilding to be done.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Cavaliers:

The good news is running back Mikell Simpson is back from injury and quarterback Jameel Sewell should be back in the quarterback mix after missing last year due to academic reasons. Sewell did a decent job back in 2007 as the starter, but Marc Verica was the starter last season and the job is his to lose. And considering the fact that Verica threw 16 interceptions and just eight touchdowns a year ago, it will not be surprising if he does lose it. The wildcard in the quarterback battle is Hall. The cornerback actually started a game under center during 2008 and if Sewell is not ready to take the team back over and Verica does not improve, Hall could spend a lot more time under center.

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