Valero Alamo Bowl | Predictions & Pick

Valero Alamo Bowl

vs.

Oklahoma State (10-2) vs Arizona (7-5)
Wednesday, December 29, 2010 at 9:15 pm on ESPN
Alamodome – San Antonio, Texas

The Oklahoma State Cowboys might be the most pleasant surprise of this college football season.  There was every reason to expect that a program that generally disappoints would slide this year as they broke in a new OC and key skill position players.  Instead they ran roughshod over most of the competition.  They scored less than 34 points just once all season and if they had just been able to stop somebody on defense they might have made it into the BCS.  Brandon Wheeden may be the oldest QB in the nation but he is also one of the best and his favourite target Justin Blackmon is making everyone say Dez Bryant who.  Throw in RB Kendall Hunter and the Cowboys have the best set of triplets in the country.  To beat this team you better be able to score and quickly as they waste no time moving the ball at their breakneck pace and will bury you in a hurry.   But they can give up points almost as quickly too.  That has been their problem all season long.

No team finished the season colder than the Arizona Wildcats.  When they beat Iowa they had visions of the Rose Bowl and maybe more in their heads but 4 straight losses to close the season including a one pointer in the very last game against Arizona State leads us to believe that this is just another mediocre Wildcats team.  They better snap out of their funk for this one or else they will be embarrassed by the Cowboys.  This team can move the ball, especially through the air (9th in the country).  QB Nick Foles missed some time and still threw for just under 3000 yards and WR Juron Criner is a huge target who also comes up big (10 TDs).  With the weapons around him Foles can try and keep pace but if their heart isn’t in this one it could be over before halftime.

Arizona is better than it has shown down the stretch but I still think they are a hard team to back given the circumstances and the matchup.  If their defense lets up for even a quarter it will be game over even though the Cowboys defense is nothing to fear.  Also keep your eye on a couple of key playmakers who are on the mend – Nick Foles and Justin Blackmon.  Both are expected to play and are difference makers.  If only one answers the bell it could alter the outcome.

Game Prediction: I have made some some good coin backing the Cowboys who are 10-2 ATS this season.  I ma not going to stop now when they have a great matchup in a bowl game.  Losing their OC is going to sting a little but they should be able to have success both running and throwing making them hard to stop.

Score Prediction:
Oklahoma State – 45
Arizona  - 31

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The spread is -4.5 for Oklahoma State.  Given the way they score points I think they are a good bet all the way up to 7 points.

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Team records:

• Arizona: 7-5 SU, 4-7 ATS
• Oklahoma State: 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS

Arizona Wildcats most recently:

• When playing in December are 5-3
• When playing on turf are 6-4
• After outgaining opponent are 6-4
• When playing outside the conference are 7-3

Oklahoma State Cowboys most recently:

• When playing in December are 3-3
• When playing on turf are 8-2
• After being outgained are 8-2
• When playing outside the conference are 7-3

A few betting trends to consider:

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona’s last 6 games
• Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
• Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
• Oklahoma State is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oklahoma State’s last 12 games