UTEP Miners 2009 Football Betting Preview

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UTEP 2008 Record: (5-7, 4-4)
UTEP 2008 Bowl: none
UTEP Coach: Mike Price (30-30 at UTEP, 159-152 overall)
UTEP Offensive Coordinator: Bob Connelly and Aaron Price
UTEP Defensive Coordinator: Osia Lewis
UTEP Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: James Thomas, WR, 351 yards
• Passing: Trevor Vittatoe, QB, 3,274 yards
• Receiving: Kris Adams, WR, 958 yards
• Tackles: Da’Mon Cromartie-Smith, S, 77
• Sacks: Aaron King, DE, 2.0, Anthony Morrow, LB, 2.0
• Interceptions: Cornelius Brown, CB, 3

Notable UTEP Returning Players: OT Mike Aguayo, S Braxton Amy, G Rod Huntley, WR Jeff Moturi, P Kyle Petersen, G Cameron Raschke, DT Steve Riddick, WR Tufick Shadrawy, DE Robert Soleyjacks, OT Alex Solot, CB Melvin Stephenson

UTEP Key Losses: C Robby Felix, S Josh Ferguson, TE Jamar Hunt, RB Terrell Jackson, K Jose Martinez, DE James Olalekan, LB Nuuese Punimata, LB Adam Vincent

Last season was a disappointing year for the Miners, who lost their last two games of the season to finish out of the bowl picture with a 5-7 record. However, there were some positives to take from the year as UTEP fielded the conference’s 4 th strongest offense and finished with a 4-4 conference record. Head coach Mike Price needs to turn around his team after three consecutive losing seasons or his job could be on thin ice. With 15 starters back, he has a good chance at returning the Miners to the postseason this fall.

The offense was the best part of the team in 2008 and eight starters return after averaging 33 points per game. Junior quarterback Trevor Vittatoe threw for 3,274 yards and 33 touchdowns against only 9 interceptions and should be one of the league’s best signal callers this fall in his 3 rd season starting for the Miners. UTEP’s pass heavy offense also brings back Vittatoe’s top two targets from 2008; Senior Jeff Moturi had 51 catches for 655 yards and 9 touchdowns and junior Kris Adams was extremely explosive accounting for 50 catches, 958 yards and 14 touchdowns! Expect both to be very dangerous once more this fall. The offensive line is also a bright spot as four starters return from last season. I expect UTEP’s line to provide Vittatoe with plenty of time to distribute the football and open up holes in the rare instances that they actually run the ball. UTEP’s offense appears primed to take a step forward this season and should at least match 2008’s excellent production.

The defense was UTEP’s Achilles heel last fall, allowing over 37 points per game, second worst in the entire conference! The Miners allowed opponents to average 200 yards per game on the ground and stunk against the pass as well, allowing a 62.5 percent rate! Seven starters return from that unit but my optimism is limited for improvement. First of all, the Miners’ D-Line returns two starters but neither was a major threat in the pass rush and both were major culprits in their porous run defense. Second, the linebackers only bring back one starter and lose leading tackler Adam Vincent, who was by far the most productive defensive Miner last season. When you factor all of that together, it seems unlikely that UTEP’s run defense is going to be significantly better. Luckily for the Miner faithful, it isn’t all bad news on the defensive side. Senior Da’mon Cromartie-Smith was the team’s 2 nd leading tackler last fall in a hybrid linebacker/defensive back role known as the ‘Miner’ position and he should be a force all over the field. The secondary also returns two starters at cornerback who combined for 5 picks last season, so the pass defense looks like it could improve. However, I still think that the Miners will field a fairly weak defense this fall and I would be surprised if they held opponents to less than 30 points per game. This is a below average defense in Conference USA.

After all of the gloom and doom about their defense, you have to be wondering why I picked the Miners to finish 4-4 in conference play. Well, the major reason is their schedule. UTEP avoids USM and ECU from the East and hosts Tulsa and Houston in division play! That means their 3 division road games are at the expected bottom-dwelling teams in the division, making them significantly more winnable! The only really difficult part of the schedule is the non-conference portion, which finds the Miners hosting Kansas and traveling to Texas. The bottom line is that UTEP should once more be great offensively and poor defensively. While I’ve actually seen people picking the Miners to win the West on the basis of their light schedule, I can’t in good conscience imagine them competing for the division title when they’re unlikely to knock off either Tulsa or Houston. However, the Miners do have a good shot at earning their first bowl berth since 2005 and I think that Texas-El Paso will return to the postseason this year.

UTEP Big Games: Oct. 3rd vs. Houston, Oct. 10th @ Memphis, Oct. 21st vs. Tulsa, Nov. 7th @ Tulane, Nov. 14th @ SMU, Nov. 21st @ Rice

UTEP’s Strength:

In the meantime the offense will have to, once again, carry the load. Quarterback Trevor Vittatoe threw for 3,274 yards and 33 touchdowns as a sophomore in 2008 and he should be in for a great junior campaign. The most impressive thing about Vittatoe is the fact that he threw just nine interceptions. With receivers Kris Adams, Jeff Moturi and Tufick Shadrawy returning, the passing game should be one of the best ten in the nation. Adams and Moturi alone accounted for 23 touchdown receptions. With four starters returning on the line, Vattatoe should have plenty of time to find his weapons down field. The only issue on offense is the ground game. With the passing attack being so prolific, Coach Price might not look to the ground very often, but he needs to find somebody who can mix it up a little bit. The versatile James Thomas is the wildcard of the offense. The quarterback/receiver/running back can turn a passing offense into something a little more dynamic.

UTEP’s Weakness:

On average, the defense gave up 37 points per game and that seemed like a good day when they kept the opposition under 40 points. Seven starters are back, but that does not include leading tackler Adam Vincent. Really all this defense has to do is get the ball back to the offense. They failed to force too many turnovers and the only way they got the ball to the offense was after giving up a quick touchdown. The best news is Braxton Amy is back after missing all of 2008 with an ACL injury. He could turn the secondary into a unit that could actually create some turnovers. Yet, the front line needs to get some pressure on the quarterback or the secondary will get ripped apart again. That means Aaron King and Robert Soleyjacks have to get to the quarterback much more efficiently.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Miners:

The offense can only carry this team so far. Even if they score 40 points a game, they can still lose if there is not any improvement from the defense. In fact, two times last year UTEP scored over 40 points and lost. The defense has to do something different or this year will look a lot like last season.

UTEP Betting Odds

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