USC Trojans 2009 Football Betting Preview

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USC 2008 Record: (12-1, 8-1)
USC 2008 Bowl: Rose Bowl vs. Penn State (W 38-24)
USC Coach: Pete Carroll (88-15 at USC, 88-15 overall)
USC Offensive Coordinator: John Morton
USC Defensive Coordinator: Rocky Seto
USC Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Stafon Johnson, RB, 705 yards
• Passing: Mitch Mustain, QB, 157 yards
• Receiving: Damian Williams, WR, 869 yards
• Tackles: Taylor Mays, S, 53
• Sacks: Everson Griffen, DE, 4.5
• Interceptions: Drew McAllister, S, 3; Kevin Thomas, CB, 3

Notable USC Returning Players: OT Charles Brown, G Jeff Byers, RB C.J. Gable, OT Butch Lewis, TE Anthony McCoy, RB Joe McKnight, C Kristofer O’Dowd, G Alex Parsons

USC Key Losses: K David Buehler, LB Brian Cushing, S Kevin Ellison, CB Cary Harris, LB Kaluka Maiava, DE Clay Matthews, LB Rey Maualuga, DT Fili Moala, DE Kyle Moore, QB Mark Sanchez, WR Patrick Turner, P Greg Woidneck

2008 was a very bittersweet season for the Men of Troy. Despite boasting one of the most impressive non-conference wins in the country after blowing out Ohio State and fielding a historically excellent defense which allowed only 9 points per game, USC never seemed to gain any traction as a legitimate contender for a berth in the national title game after being upset early by Oregon State. As I picked the Trojans as the number one team in my final 2008 ranking, I clearly disagreed with the pollsters’ choice of participants in the National Title game. USC might have been the best team in the country last year. This fall, USC has to rebuild their entire defense and replace starting quarterback Mark Sanchez, who was a top 5 pick in the NFL Draft. Furthermore, the Trojans have to replace both coordinators as their staff was raided by Washington in the offseason. This might be head coach Pete Carroll’s most difficult reloading job since he began the Trojans’ most recent run of success in 2002. However, he has a strong track record as the Trojans have won seven straight Pac Ten titles and boast an 82-9 record during that time span!

On offense, nine starters are back from last season. The offensive line might be the best in the entire country as all five starters return and all are upperclassmen. Like most of USC’s players, all of the linemen were very highly recruited coming out of high school and I would wager that all of them will have a pro career. That kind of beef on the line means that USC should have a devastating running game. The Trojans split carries three ways last fall and all three tailbacks return. Joe McKnight is one of the shiftiest players in the country, CJ Gable is a solid all around back and Stafon Johnson might be the best pro prospect of the three. They combined for nearly 2,000 yards and 19 touchdowns last season. Expect USC to lean on them in the early going. At receiver, junior Damian Wililams was a 2nd team All-Pac Ten choice in 2008 after catching 58 passes for 870 yards and 9 touchdowns. New starter Ronald Johnson was a very capable third receiver last season as he hauled in 8 touchdowns and he and Williams will form the conference’s top tandem.

So with so much firepower, what’s the big concern? Quarterback. USC recruits the position as well as anyone in America but Carroll was publicly peeved when Sanchez left early for the NFL after turning in a virtuoso performance in the Rose Bowl. That’s because USC will now start either sophomore Aaron Corp or true freshman Matt Barkley this fall. Neither has any notable experience at the college level, unlike Sanchez going who had three years to learn before taking over last season and had even started a few games when starter John David Booty was injured in 2007. With three road games in the first month of the year, quarterback is of utmost concern. USC will still field a great offense and once the quarterback situation is settled they’ll finish with their usual flourish. Expect great production but USC’s fate in the national and conference race will be decided by early October and their quarterbacks will have to be ready to rise and meet the challenge.

Defensively, USC has to replace a ton of talent that formed one of the best defenses in school history. Eight players were drafted in April from last season’s unit which allowed only 12 touchdowns in 13 games! However, this is USC and they recruit as well as anyone in the country so there is a ton of talent on hand. Up front, the only starter back is junior tackle Christian Toupou, who takes up a lot of space. However, junior Everson Griffin is one of the most talented players on the team and he had 4.5 sacks as a backup last year. I expect USC to field a very good defensive line but they won’t be as good as 2008’s group as the three departed starters were multiyear performers taken in the first four rounds. The linebackers lost more talent to the draft than any other position on the team. The top three tacklers are all gone and all three were high draft picks. This fall, sophomore middle linebacker Chris Galippo is expected to be the next Trojan star and he is surrounded by a ton of talent. Expect USC to continue to be very tough against the run but they lack any notable game action. The secondary is by far the most experienced unit on defense. Senior safety Taylor Mays is one of the country’s best players and was a 1st team All-American last fall. Senior cornerback Josh Pinkard is the other starter back but senior safety Will Harris played a ton last year and should seamlessly step into the other spot opposite Mays. Senior cornerback Kevin Thomas and sophomore safety Drew McAllister tied for the team lead in interceptions last fall with three and both should see the field plenty this season.

Overall, the Trojans should once more have a great defense and their secondary is certainly one of the country’s best. However, way too much hyperbole has been directed at this season’s defense as I’ve actually read that some people think this group could be better than last season’s sterling unit. That’s simply not going to happen. Last year’s defense held opponents to an average of 220 total yards and nine points! I don’t ever like to sensationalize anything in sports but USC’s 2008 defense might have been one of the best in the history of college football! From that unit, they’ve lost two first round picks, two 2nd round picks, two 4 th round picks and two 6th round picks in the NFL draft! USC will undoubtedly field a great defense but the last time USC had to replace this much talent was in 2005 and they allowed 23 points per game. I don’t expect their defense to fall that far this season but there will be a noticeable step back.

The schedule is also as tough as ever. The non-conference portion features an early road trip to Ohio State, who will have revenge on their minds for last season’s beatdown in the Coliseum, and archrival Notre Dame, who should be much improved. While USC does have five home conference games, they have to travel to Washington, Cal, Oregon and Arizona State, four of the toughest venues in the conference. Furthermore, five of their first eight games are on the road and they only have six total home games!

Simply put, this is USC. They’re going to be fast and talented at every position regardless of how many players they’ve lost to the NFL because this is one of the true powerhouse programs in college football. They’re the epitome of a school that reloads instead of rebuilds. The only question is how they’ll stack up against other top flight teams. Well, they’ve got two top ten caliber opponents on the road in their first five games in Ohio State and Cal. With a young quarterback and an inexperienced defense, both games loom very large and I wouldn’t be shocked if they lost both. However, if the Trojans beat the Buckeyes in Ohio Stadium with a quarterback starting his first road game in that kind of environment, then they’re a strong contender for the National Title. In the end, I will be very surprised if USC doesn’t win ten games and play in a BCS bowl this season.

USC Big Games: Sept. 12th @ Ohio State, Sept. 19th @ UW, Oct. 3rd @ Cal, Oct. 17th @ Notre Dame, Oct. 24th vs. Oregon St, Oct. 31st @ Oregon, Nov. 28th vs. UCLA

USC’s Strength:

It is rare that a team like USC returns nine starters on offense. The absence of quarterback Mark Sanchez and wide receiver Patrick Turner are big losses, but getting back the entire offensive line, a slew of talented rushers and more than enough receivers should be enough to win the conference. Stafon Johnson, Joe McKnight and C.J. Gable are all back. Not one of those backs stole the show, but the three combined for nearly 2,000 rushing yards and 19 trips to the end zone. The receiving corps has plenty of talent with Damian Williams, Ronald Johnson and Stanley Havili. The big question is just who replaces Sanchez? Mitch Mustain would be the logical choice, but sophomore Aaron Corp is the starter after the spring game and it might just stick. With all the quality playmakers, any quarterback should be very successful.

USC’s Weakness:

The USC offense did struggle at times last year, and they will again this year, but the bigger concern is on defense where just three starters return. The list of departures is a who’s who of great USC defenders. Fili Moala, Clay Matthews, Brian Cushing and Rey Maualuga, among others, are all off in the NFL and those guys will be nearly impossible to replace. The good news is safety Taylor Mays is back and should turn an inexperienced secondary into a competent unit. It is replacing all those great linebackers that sounds a little more difficult. USC will certainly reload, but how can this group not take a step back without Cushing and Maualuga?

Our Prediction for the 2009 Trojans:

USC reloads…especially on defense. The blue chip recruits that have been patiently waiting on the sidelines will step up and play just fine. This team should win the Pac-10 yet again and at least reach the Rose Bowl. But this is USC and their expectations are always a little loftier than that. The quarterback situation is a concern and Corp or Mustain have to live up to Sanchez and his top ranked passing offense. If the Trojans have to depend on the ground game too much, then somebody will come up with a game plan to stop the offense and there goes the perfect season.

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