UNLV Rebels 2009 Football Betting Preview

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UNLV 2008 Record: (5-7, 2-6)
UNLV 2008 Bowl: none
UNLV Coach: Mike Sanford (11-36 at UNLV, 11-36 overall)
UNLV Offensive Coordinator: Todd Berry
UNLV Defensive Coordinator: Dennis Therrell
UNLV Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: C.J. Cox, RB, 191 yards
• Passing: Omar Clayton, QB, 1,894 yards
• Receiving: Ryan Wolfe, WR, 1,040 yards
• Tackles: Jason Beauchamp, LB, 127
• Sacks: Isaako Aaitui, DT, 2.0; Jason Beauchamp, LB, 2.0; Heivaha Mafi, DE, 2.0
• Interceptions: Quinton Pointer, CB, 2

Notable UNLV Returning Players: LB Nate Carter, C Joe Hawley, S Terrance Lee, OT Evan Marchal, OT Matt Murphy, LB Ronnie Paulo, WR Jerriman Robinson, DT Malo Taumua, DT Martin Tevaseu

UNLV Key Losses: G Johan Asiata, WR Casey Flair, S Darryl Forte, DT Jacob Hales, CB Geoffery Howard, G Sifa Moala, DE Thor Pili, RB Frank Summers, TE Ryan Worthen

I had high hopes for UNLV entering last season, predicting them to finish with a .500 conference record and reach their first bowl game this decade. However, despite the Rebels’ 2-0 record against BCS conference opposition and a 3-1 record in the non-conference schedule, they fell to a very disappointing 2-6 conference mark to finish with head coach Mike Sanford’s 4 th losing record in as many seasons. While I’m risking repeating last year’s error by picking UNLV to finish .500 again, fourteen returning starters and a 3 rd year starter at quarterback make me think that Sanford has his best shot at finally breaking through and earning a postseason berth for the Rebels.

Junior Omar Clayton will be the team’s starting quarterback this fall. Clayton, who threw for 1,894 yards and 18 touchdowns against only four picks in 2008, is one of the conference’s best quarterbacks and could have a huge year in his 3 rd season under center after guiding last season’s team to a scoring jump of more than a touchdown per game from the previous year. Providing even more hope for the Rebels’ passing game is the return of 1 st team All-MWC receiver Ryan Wolfe, who had 88 catches for 1040 yards and 6 touchdowns last season. Wolfe will pair with explosive sophomore Phillip Payne (who had 7 touchdowns as a true freshman in only nine games last year) to give Clayton lots of options as one of the league’s top pass catching duos. At tailback, the Rebels’ pass-heavy offense should have a solid change of pace in sophomore C.J. Cox, who impressed in as a true freshman back up last season. Expect the Rebels’ offensive output to improve once more this season with a solid offensive line that features three returning starters. I expect junior offensive tackle Matt Murphy, who was a freshman All-American in 2007 before earning 2 nd team All-MWC honors last season, to be one of the conference’s absolute best and I think that the UNLV line will be even better than last season despite losing 2 two year starters. Overall, UNLV averaged just less than 26 points per game in 2008 and I fully expect them to eclipse that number by a healthy margin this fall.

There is also reason for optimism on defense. The Rebels were gouged on the ground last season to the tune of 213 yards per game and that played a large part in their allowing an average of 32.5 points, 2 nd worst in the conference. This season should be much better with seven starters back, including three of their top four tacklers. Up front, the Rebels return three starters but they will have to hope for better production after generating only 11 sacks as a defense in 2008. The good news is that I think they’ll improve with a year’s experience and should at least be better against the run this season. My optimism for an improved run defense is further bolstered by the return of two starting linebackers from last season. Senior Jason Beauchamp racked up 127 tackles and two sacks last fall and was a 1 st team All-MWC selection and junior Ronnie Paulo contributed 90 tackles as the pair were the top two tacklers on the team. Even better news is the return of junior Starr Fuimano, who was a major contributor two years ago before running into injury trouble. If Fuimano remains healthy this year, UNLV might have the conference’s best group of linebackers. In the secondary, there is work to do as junior cornerback Quinton Porter is the team’s only returning starter. Sanford was aware of the impending talent drain and brought in at least four junior college defensive backs as part of his most recent recruiting class in an effort to improve this season’s aerial defenses. The Rebels’ pass defense might have only allowed 210 yards per game through the air but I think that might have been more of a byproduct of opponents choosing to attack their poor run defense as they allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete over 61% of their passes and allowed lowly San Diego State to throw for nearly 400 yards on the season’s final day to knock UNLV out of bowl eligibility. Thus, I’m not so sure that replacing a large portion of last season’s secondary is really a bad thing and with the expected improvements in UNLV’s run defense, the secondary might allow more yardage but be a stronger unit. I expect UNLV to definitely improve against the run after allowing over 200 yards in a game seven times last year, including Nevada’s shocking 444 yard performance and a 346 yard gashing at the hands of Air Force. With an improved run defense comes an improved scoring defense and I would be surprised if UNLV’s defense didn’t hold opponents under 30 points per game this fall.

The schedule is a mixed bag, though there are seven games in Sin City. However, their non-conference schedule features a home game against Oregon State and road trips to Wisconsin and archrival Nevada. All three teams are expected to be bowl teams and the Rebels will be underdogs in each game. The conference schedule features road trips to Wyoming, TCU and Air Force and the Rebels face back to back home games against BYU and Utah. While facing a daunting schedule, things are in place for UNLV to make some noise in the conference title chase. However, they face three very tough non-conference games and need to live up to my expectations to earn Sanford’s first bowl berth. While there are rumors about Sanford’s job security, a 5-3 conference record would double his career total of Mountain West wins and should certainly keep his job safe. At worst, UNLV will be a very fun team to watch this fall as they should be involved in some shootouts during their push for a shot at the postseason.

UNLV Big Games: Sept. 26th @ Wyoming, Oct. 3rd @ Nevada, Oct. 10th vs. BYU, Oct. 17th vs. Utah, Oct. 31st @ TCU, Nov. 14th @ Air Force

UNLV’s Strength:

The offense has a whole lot of potential. Quarterback Omar Clayton can make plays with his arm and his legs when he is healthy and most of his favorite receiving threats are also back. Clayton hurt his knee late in the year and he has to be able to come back at full strength and lead this team. Before he got hurt, the 6-1 signal caller threw for 1,894 yards, 18 touchdowns and just four interceptions. It is that smart decision making that makes him so dangerous…although his strong arm is a bonus too. Receiver Casey Flair is gone, but Clayton has his top target, Ryan Wolfe, back. Wolfe caught 88 passes for 1,040 yards and six touchdowns a year ago and his senior season should be a good one. Phillip Payne is a great target in the red zone and Rodelin Anthony and Jerriman Robinson are both experienced receivers. It is on the ground where there are bigger questions. Frank Summers bowled his way for 740 yards and eight touchdowns during his senior campaign and now somebody has to try and replace the tank. Chris Brogdon, a 5-7 senior, is the most likely replacement, but players like C.J. Cox should be in the mix as well.

UNLV’s Weakness:

The defense was one of the worst in the conference last year, but with eight starters returning there is at least a little bit of hope for future success. The biggest concern is the loss of defensive tackles Jacob Hales and Thor Pili. Those two did not do a great job by any means, but they were experienced interior linemen who will be difficult to replace. The Rebels rarely got into the backfield as it was and the team has to find somebody who can consistently garner some sacks. That would help out the rest of the defense immensely. Jason Beauchamp will be the leader of the linebackers and Quinton Pointer has the potential to develop into a quality cornerback, but UNLV has to hope their recruiting classes over the past few years can fill some holes and provide some quality depth.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Rebels:

This is a team that was one win away from being bowl eligible. And now they return eight starters on defense and enough talent on offense to turn into a consistent offensive force. If Summers can be replaced at running back and the defense uses their year of experience and improves, UNLV could reach a bowl game.

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