UCF Knights 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Central Florida 2008 Record: (4-8, 3-5)
Central Florida 2008 Bowl: none
Central Florida Coach: George O’Leary (26-36 at UCF, 78-69 overall)
Central Florida Offensive Coordinator: Charlie Taaffe
Central Florida Defensive Coordinator: Dave Huxtable
Central Florida Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Brynn Harvey, RB, 519 yards
• Passing: Rob Calabrese, QB, 664 yards
• Receiving: Brian Watters, WR, 594 yards
• Tackles: Lawrence Young, LB, 72
• Sacks: Bruce Miller, DE, 7.0
• Interceptions: Derrick Hallman, S, 1; Bruce Miller, DE, 1; Lawrence Young, LB, 1

Notable Central Florida Returning Players: WR Kamar Aiken, C Ian Bustillo, DE Jarvis Geathers, LB Chance Henderson, TE John Lubischer, OT Adam Nissley, G Nick Pieschel, G Jah Reid, WR Rocky Ross, DT Torrell Troup, RB Ronnie Weaver

Central Florida Key Losses: OT Patrick Brown, CB Joe Burnett, C Mike Lavoie, CB Johnell Neal, S Shareff Rashad, S Jason Venson

UCF has been somewhat enigmatic since George O’Leary took over five seasons ago. The Knights have only had two winning seasons but in both seasons they won the C-USA East! Last season, UCF’s big problem was their offense, which was the nation’s most ineffective at 16.5 points per game. Four times UCF lost games while holding opponents under 20 points! Can Central Florida find an offense this fall?

The good news is that nine starters are back from last year, four of whom started as freshmen in 2009. Based off of the fact that they were the nation’s worst last year, it would be easy to sarcastically assume that there would be improvement because they can’t get any worse! However, I’m my optimism is based more on merit than assumption. UCF is expected to be led by sophomore quarterback Rob Calabrese, who struggled at time last fall as a true frosh. However, former Wake Forest quarterback Brett Hodges was given a waiver for immediate eligibility and could push him for playing time. Whoever emerges from the battle victorious (Calabrese has the edge according to O’Leary) will have a deep set of receivers to throw to, led by junior Brian Watters, who caught 42 passes for 584 yards and 3 touchdowns last year. While virtually the entire two deep returns, there is still a lack of proven productivity behind Watters and someone else needs to step up. Keep an eye on Notre Dame transfer Richard Jackson, who was a top 10 receiver coming out of high school. The running game should also be solid, led by sophomore Brynn Harvey, who racked up 519 yards on the ground to lead the team in 2008. Harvey will be running behind a decent offensive line which returns two starters. However, there were a number of defensive linemen who switched sides during the spring and that is never a good sign. I am concerned about finding a solid unit when there is precious little experience returning. Overall, Central Florida should get improved production at all of the skill positions and their offensive line should at least play up to last year’s standards. With a year of experience under Calabrese’s belt, I would be very surprised if the UCF offense sunk to the same depths as last season. On top of their returning experience, Central Florida also has a new offensive coordinator and improved play calling should help improve their scoring. Despite the improvements, there is still a lot to be proven and Central Florida will be lucky to crack the top half of the conference in scoring this fall.

The defense is once more a much brighter picture. The Knights have a great defensive line with three starters back, led by junior defensive end Bruce Miller, who had 52 tackles and 7 sacks en route to earning a 2 nd team C-USA selection in 2008. The three returning starters combined for 14.5 sacks last year and anchored a group that allowed only 125 yards rushing per game. Expect them to be very good this fall. At linebacker, two starters return including junior Lawrence Young, who had 72 tackles and was a 2 nd team C-USA choice. I expect that UCF’s linebackers will be even more productive this fall behind a stellar line. The Knights fielded the conference’s best rush defense last fall despite spending a ton of time on the field and this season’s group might be even better! Expect O’Leary’s bunch to be downright stingy against the run. The big concern on defense is in the secondary, where junior safety Derek Hallman is the only returning starter. UCF will have to replace two corners that combined for 96 tackles and 8 picks and two safeties that combined for 154 tackles and 4 picks in 2008! That’s a ton of production to lose from just one season and most of those players were multi-year starters. I am very concerned about the secondary for two reasons. My first worry is that most of the projected starters were special teamers last fall and have virtually no game experience. The other big concern is that UCF’s strength against the run means that more teams will try to pick them apart using the pass so they’ll have to be ready to bear a heavy load very quickly. While I’m sure that some players will step up and help field a decent pass defense, the best news for the secondary is that the front four will get a lot of pressure on the quarterback without needing to blitz, which will allow the nickel back to be on the field more often. Central Florida should be killer against the run but I think that questions about their pass defense will make this unit about as effective as their 2008 edition, which allowed 24 points per game.

The conference schedule is actually pretty fair. While the Knights draw Houston out of the West, they also draw Rice and Tulane, both of whom aren’t expected to be very good. The biggest concern would be that their first three conference games are against USM, ECU and Memphis, all in the season’s first five weeks! That doesn’t give them a lot of time to get their secondary in order. That could put them out of the race before most of the rest of the conference really begins play. The non-conference schedule is also tough, featuring a visit from Miami and a trip to Texas. While I think that the Knights will improve their offensive production this fall, I have concerns about the inexperience on offense and huge loss of talent in the secondary on defense. I think that UCF will once more have to win games by playing great defense and that could spell trouble as their secondary will be a liability early. Central Florida has a lot of talent on hand but the combination of a tough early conference run and two very difficult non-conference dates leads me to believe that they won’t win enough games to earn bowl eligibility this fall.

Central Florida Big Games: Sept. 12th @ USM, Sept. 26th @ ECU, Oct. 3rd vs. Memphis, Nov. 1st vs. Marshall, Nov. 21st vs. Tulane, Nov. 28th @ UAB

UCF’s Strength:

And it was because of the defense that the team from Central Florida even won four games last year. The defensive line will be the best in the conference by far. End Bruce Miller tallied 7.0 sacks and 17.0 tackles-for-loss last year and fellow lineman Torrell Troup added 12.5 tackles-for-loss. Both of those guys could be playing on Sunday’s sooner or later. But there is more to the line than just Miller and Troup. End Jarvis Geathers was second on the team in sacks last year with 5.5 and Travis Timmons compliments Troup in the middle of the line quite well. The linebackers return three starters in Derrick Hallman, Chance Henderson and Lawrence Young, but the real problem is in the secondary. Replacing Joe Burnett, Johnell Neal, Shareff Rashad and Jason Venson will not be easy. Having a front line that can get to the quarterback will make it easier for the newcomers to adjust to full time starting positions, but the pass defense should suffer at least a little bit.

UCF’s Weakness:

Nobody in the nation tallied fewer yards per game than the UCF offense. At best it was serviceable and most of the time it was just plain ugly. For better or worse, ten starters are back. The biggest bright spot could be running back Brynn Harvey. As a true freshman he rushed for a team high 519 yards. However, he only reached the end zone once. But the Knights hope that they can rely on him to be an effective every down back now that he has a year of experience under his belt. The quarterback situation is where the real mess was last year. Rob Calabrese, Michael Greco and Joe Weatherford all were given an opportunity. None of them took advantage. Calabrese took the most snaps and he completed a dismal 39.4 percent of his attempts. Calabrese should be the guy again this year, but those numbers have to get better. In fact, the entire offense, including the linemen, need to use their experience and simply play better football.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Knights:

The offense does not have to be as bad as it was last year. Harvey is full of potential and the linemen are a year older and wiser. Calabrese even has some quality targets to throw the ball to, most notably Kamar Aiken. Aiken is a playmaker who can make things happen. Add Brian Watters, last year’s top receiver, Rocky Ross and tight end John Lubischer to the mix and there is no reason the passing offense has to rank 115 th in the nation yet again.

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