Tulane Green Wave 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Tulane 2008 Record: (2-10, 1-7)
Tulane 2008 Bowl: none
Tulane Coach: Bob Toledo (6-18 at Tulane, 84-86 overall)
Tulane Offensive Coordinator: Dan Dodd
Tulane Defensive Coordinator: Steve Stanard
Tulane Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Andre Anderson, RB, 864 yards
• Passing: Kevin Moore, QB, 2,150 yards
• Receiving: Jeremy Williams, 437 yards
• Tackles: Corey Sonnier, S, 86
• Sacks: Logan Kelly, LB, 7.0
• Interceptions: Travis Burks, LB, 2

Notable Tulane Returning Players: S Chinoso Echeblem, CB Charles Harris, G Pete Henrickson, LB David Kirksey, DE Adam Kwentua, OT Nick Landry, C Andrew Nierman, WR Casey Robottom, DE Reggie Scott, TE Cody Sparks, K/P Ross Thevenot

Tulane Key Losses: LB Devin Holland, TE Justin Kessler, WR Brian King, OT Troy Kropog, LB Evan Lee, CB Josh Lumar, C Michael Parenton, DT Julian Shives-Sams, S David Skehan

Can anyone remember the last time that Tulane had a winning record? Last season’s 2-10 mark was their sixth consecutive losing season and their worst record since 1991. Head coach Bob Toledo enters his third season in charge with 13 starters back and he has to hope that his team can exceed expectations by a significant margin this fall because not even the most fervent Tulane fan believes that a bowl game is in the cards this season.

The offense was among the worst in the country in 2008, scoring less than 17 points per game. Sophomore Joe Kemp and junior Kevin Moore will compete for the quarterback job after splitting duties last fall. Moore played more but also threw a lot more interceptions so the job is very much up for grabs. The top returning receiving target is senior Jeremy Williams, who caught 27 passes last year, 5 of which went for touchdowns, but there are four other returning players who had 20 or more catches last fall so there is some depth. The running game will be powered by senior Andre Anderson, who ran for 864 yards and 7 touchdowns last season. While that’s solid production, it was less than half of what former tailback Matt Forte accounted for in his amazing 2007 season! Anderson will run behind a decent offensive line which brings back three starters. However, they lose their two best O-Linemen, both of whom were 3 year starters! I simply don’t see Tulane having a much better offense than last year as the talent on hand and lack of proven playmakers outside of Anderson leads me to believe that any improvement by the Green Wave will be minimal.

Another major factor in Tulane’s terrible 2008 was a pitiful performance by the defense, which allowed over 34 points per game. However, this is unfortunately par for the course as the Green Wave has allowed over 30 points per game in every season since 2002! The running attack killed Tulane as they allowed opponents to average over 215 yards per game on the ground and three opponents ran for over 300 yards, the lowlight of which was a 489 yard performance by Tulsa in November. The key to fixing their terrible rushing attack begins up front, where three starters return. Senior end Adam Kwentua made 48 tackles last fall and accounted for 1. 5 sacks, making him the strongest performer on the line for the Wave. That’s not a good sign. With three starters back, I have to expect some improvement but this is simply not a very talented unit. The linebackers are actually an even bigger question mark as there will be three new starters this season. Senior Travis Burks appears to be the best of the bunch after making 40 tackles for 2 sacks while snaring 2 interceptions in 2008. However, the new starters don’t give me much hope for a better run defense. The secondary is much more experienced, led by 2008’s leading tackler, senior safety Corey Sonnier. I actually think that the secondary might be decent since there is a fair amount of experience back but with the issues up front they’ll probably get beat over the top because they’ll be forced to play closer to the line of scrimmage to stop the run. I don’t have much hope for the Green Wave to improve any on defense in 2009.

The schedule is also really tough, as their conference home games are against Tulsa, Houston, UTEP and Marshall. That means that their more winnable games are going to be on the road, where Tulane went 0-6 last year. Furthermore, their non-conference schedule features BYU and ‘rival’ LSU, to whom they’ve lost seventeen consecutive games! The final kick is that the Wave has to finish the year with five of their final six games on the road. Simply put, Tulane has less talent than most of the teams in the league. Their recruiting classes from 2006-2008 only combined to feature TWO 3 star prospects, though their most recent class was much improved. However, that means that their most talented players are freshmen and if they have to play a large number of first year players to fill the numerous holes on both sides of the ball then they’re going to be in for a long season. However, with a weak offense and another porous defense, maybe they need to start thinking about the future now. I don’t have very many good things to say about the Wave and if they beat last season’s mark of two wins I will be surprised.

Tulane Big Games: Sept. 4th vs. Tulsa, Oct. 10th vs. Marshall, Oct. 31st @ LSU, Nov. 7th vs. UTEP, Nov. 14th @ Rice, Nov. 28th @ SMU

Tulane’s Strength:

The biggest reason for the sudden drop off was the loss of running back Andre Anderson and wide receiver Jeremy Williams to injury. Those two were the heart and soul of the offense and the team was never the same again. If those two can stay healthy, Tulane will be a much, much more dangerous team offensively. Quarterback Kevin Moore had his lumps during his sophomore campaign, but he is an upperclassman now and must start making better decisions and become a leader on and off the field. Like the rest of the team, Moore started strong, but pretty much packed it in by the end of the year. This is a group that needs some positive momentum and they can get it if Anderson and Williams are healthy enough to provide it.

Tulane’s Weakness:

When the offense went bad, the defense regressed as well. The rushing defense was simply awful, allowing the opposition to run for 218.4 yards per game. And, believe it or not, that includes the game against Alabama when the Tide were held to under 100 yards on the ground. By the end of the year, the defense seemed to stop caring. The front four returns some talented players like Adam Kwentua, Logan Kelly and Reggie Scott and those three have to get into the backfield and stop the run. The run defense needs some help from the linebackers and they might not find it now that Evan Lee and Devin Holland are gone. The secondary ranked tops in the conference a year ago, but that is mostly because the opposition had no need to throw the ball when they could simply run to victory. However, it is still the secondary, led by strong safety Corey Sonnier, that is the best unit on this defense.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Green Wave:

Barring another barrage of injuries, Tulane simply has to be better this year than they were in 2008. That might not mean a bowl game, but it should mean four or five wins. Anything less than that and the Coach Toledo experiment in New Orleans might be coming to a quick end.

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