Toledo Rockets 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Toledo 2008 Record: (3-9, 2-6)
Toledo 2008 Bowl: none
Toledo Coach: Tim Beckman (First year at Toledo, 0-0 overall)
Toledo Offensive Coordinator: Matt Campbell
Toledo Defensive Coordinator: Paul Nichols and Mike Ward
Toledo Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Morgan Williams, RB, 1,010 yards
• Passing: Aaron Opelt, QB, 2,176 yards
• Receiving: Stephen Williams, WR, 781 yards
• Tackles: Archie Donald, LB, 119
• Sacks: Skylaar Constant, DE, 1; DE Hank Keighley, 1; Malcolm Riley, DT, 1; Derrick Summers, DE, 1; Douglas Westbrook, DE, 1
• Interceptions: Archie Donald, LB, 2

Notable Toledo Returning Players: S Barry Church, RB DaJuane Collins, G Jared DeWalt, C Buster Garrett, DT Maurice Hill, G Kevin Kowalski, OT John Morookian, LB Daris Quinn, S Lester Richmond, CB Mark Singer, WR Kenny Stafford, K Alex Steigerwald, OT Mike VanDerMeulen, CB Kenny Veal

Toledo Key Losses: DE Alexandre Albertson, TE John Allen, CB Greg Harris, S Tyrrell Herbert, WR Nick Moore, DE Sean Williamson

2008 was the best of times and the worst of times for the Toledo Rockets. They began the year 1-4 but then shocked the world by upsetting Michigan in the Big House, the first loss by the Wolverines to a MAC school in the modern era. However, the Rockets couldn’t capitalize on the big win and finished 3-9, their 3 rd straight losing season. This somewhat surprisingly cost head coach Tom Amstutz his job (after 30 years at the school, 8 as Head Coach) despite beginning his career with 5 straight years of 8 wins or more. In his stead is former Ohio State assistant coach Tim Beckman, who will look to turn around the Rockets’ fortunes as he inherits a veteran team.

Offensively, nine starters return from the worst Rocket offense in the Amstutz era. Senior quarterback Aaron Opelt threw for over 2,100 yards and 12 TDs but did throw 7 picks. I expect him to improve in his 3 rd year as a starter and find the end zone more. Toledo should also have a strong running attack as they bring back a pair of excellent tailbacks in senior DuJuane Collins (700 yards, 5 TDs last year) and sophomore Morgan Williams (1,010 yards, 6 TDs). On top of that, new offensive coordinator Matt Campbell was the run game coordinator at his previous job so you know the running game will be a priority. Furthermore, this pair of talented tailbacks will be running behind an offensive line that returns all five starters and I think that they will be one of the strongest lines in the conference. The receivers will be led by senior Stephen Williams (71 catches, 781 yards, 8 TDs last year) but they need to find a secondary option as no one else returning has more than 15 catches. Overall, this offense should definitely be improved, especially on the ground, from the 2008 unit which only scored 22.4 points per game.

The defense is also solid, returning seven starters including five of their top six tacklers. Seniors Derrick Summers and Skylaar Constant will anchor a defensive line that has to do better than last year’s pithy 10 sacks. This group should be somewhat improved if they can generate any pass rush. The linebackers are solid as well as all three starters are back, led by senior hybrid Barry Church, who had 93 tackles last year en route to a 1 st team All-MAC season. Junior Archie Donald was also the team’s leading tackler a year ago and should be a presence on every play. The secondary also looks pretty good as senior Lester Richmond will be expected to provide leadership to a group that will be installing two new starters. Expect Toledo to again have their traditionally solid pass defense. Overall, if the Rockets can get improved play along the defensive line then this could be one of the conference’s stronger defenses.

The schedule is difficult and it starts off with a brutal non-conference slate. The Rockets begin at Purdue, host Colorado and then play Ohio State in Cleveland before traveling south to face Florida International! If the Rockets aren’t careful, they could come out of September 0-4. Toledo then jumps directly into their conference run with a trip to Ball State! Luckily they have three home games after that and avoid the Eastern favorites but do have road trips to in state rivals Miami and Bowling Green. This is not an easy schedule and it ends with two of three on the road during the week. Overall, the Rockets are going to be improved from last year as they return a lot of talent and experience but their schedule will be very tough to overcome. Toledo is probably not in the race for the MAC West crown and will be fortunate to qualify for a bowl game this fall.

Toledo Big Games: Oct. 3rd @ Ball State, Oct. 10th vs. WMU, Oct. 31st @ Miami, Nov. 20th vs. EMU, Nov. 27th @ Bowling Green

Toledo’s Strength:

Despite the lack of a pass rush, Toledo won games with their defense. And now ten starters are back. The Rockets have a handful of linemen who played last year and are returning this season, but none of them were consistently getting into the backfield. Senior Derrick Summers and sophomore Hank Keighley are the likely starters on the ends and they have to create pressure on the quarterback. Getting some help from tackles Skylaar Constant and Maurice Hill would not hurt. Linebacker Donald Arichie should be the team’s leading tackler once again and Daris Quinn ranked fourth on the team with 77 tackles. Counting rover Barry Church, the secondary is extremely talented, even with the loss of Tyrrell Herbert. Church is a candidate to get into the backfield if the front four struggles to do so on their own. With Lester Richmond, Desmond Marrow and Joe Bates joining Church in the secondary, the pass defense should be among the best in the conference.

Toledo’s Weakness:

The offense returns nearly as many starters as the defense, but at times the unit had major trouble moving the ball. Quarterback Aaron Opelt is yet another experienced, yet unspectacular senior quarterback in the MAC. In 2008 he threw for 2,176 yards, 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The problem with the passing attack, which ranked 11 th in the conference in 2008, is that Nick Moore is gone. He caught a team high 78 passes and seemed to always make the clutch catch. Stephen Williams, who caught eight touchdown passes, is back, but somebody else has to step up and fill the void left behind by Moore or the opposition can simply double team Williams all day. That would force the Rockets to move to the ground. Morgan Williams and DaJuane Collins are both back after combining to rush for 1,710 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Rockets:

With four starters back on the line, Williams and Collins should have a good year, but the passing game has to improve if Toledo hopes to compete in a tough MAC West Division. The team needs a balanced offense and an opportunistic offense if they want to outscore teams like Central Michigan and Western Michigan.

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