Ticket City Bowl
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Northwestern Wildcats vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Saturday, January 1, 2010 at 12:00 pm on ESPNU
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Northwestern (7-5) takes on Texas Tech (7-5) in the Ticket City Bowl in on New Year’s Day in Dallas.
The Wildcats started out 5-0, but stumbled to the finish line in time to make it to their third-straight bowl, while Texas Tech won three of its last four games to finish fifth in the Big 12 South in its first year under Tommy Tuberville. This is the first meeting between the two teams.
Northwestern had a legit reason for its late-season fade. The Wildcats were without All-Big Ten quarterback Dan Persa for the home stretch after he got hurt in a 21-17 victory over Iowa on Nov. 13. Without Persa, who was eighth in the FBS with 310.0 total yards per game, the Wildcats ended the regular season with a 48-27 loss to Illinois at Wrigley Field on Nov. 20, and a 70-23 defeat to co-Big Ten champion Wisconsin a week later. Persa will not play in the bowl game. Instead, redshirt freshman Evan Watkins–who has had a rough go of it so far–will get the start. While Watkins has receiver Jeremy Ebert to throw to (he led the Big Ten with 919 receiving yards), Northwestern could be without its top three rushers. Leader Mike Trumpy may sit out due to a wrist injury suffered in the Illinois loss, and the Wildcats definitely won’t have Persa or Arby Fields, who led the team in rushing in 2009 but recently decided to transfer.
The Wildcats struggled on defense for most of the year and finished 10th in the Big Ten in total yards allowed. However, their big weakness is against the run and Tech isn’t exactly known for pounding the ball, so Northwestern’s defense may be in better shape now that it is not in conference.
Texas Tech is a pass-first team led by senior quarterback Taylor Potts, who completed 65.9 percent of his passes for 3,357 yards with 31 TDs and nine interceptions. Potts helped Texas Tech rank eighth in the FBS in passing with 314.8 yards per game while averaging 32.1 points, including 99 over its final two games. Potts’ two top targets are wide outs Lyle Leong, who has a team-high 808 receiving yards and is second in the FBS with 17 touchdown receptions, and Detron Lewis, who has a team-best 79 receptions for 803 yards and six scores. Running back Baron Batch has 805 rushing yards, but when he runs, it’s a surprise.
The Red Raiders have had their struggles on defense, yielding averages of 30.3 points and 463.1 yards, 116th in the FBS. But they should get a reprieve this week playing against an injury-ridden Northwestern offense. Tech is a 9.5-point favorite and the point total is 60.5. Look the Red Raiders to cover and for the total to be surpassed.
The odds makers have the Texas Tech Red Raiders as a -10 point favorite with an over/under of 60.
Matt’s Free Prediction: Texas Tech 42, Northwestern 27
Team records:
- Northwestern: 7-5 SU, 2-9 ATS
- Texas Tech: 7-5 SU, 4-6-1 ATS
Northwestern Wildcats most recently:
- When playing in January are 0-3
- When playing on grass are 5-5
- After being outgained are 8-2
- When playing outside the conference are 7-3
Texas Tech Red Raiders most recently:
- When playing in January are 2-2
- When playing on grass are 3-7
- After being outgained are 8-2
- When playing outside the conference are 8-2
A few betting trends to consider:
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northwestern’s last 6 games
- Northwestern is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
- Northwestern is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
- Texas Tech is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
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