Texas Tech Red Raiders 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Texas Tech 2008 Record: (11-2, 7-1)
Texas Tech 2008 Bowl: Cotton Bowl vs. Mississippi (L 34-47)
Texas Tech Coach: Mike Leach (76-39 at Texas Tech, 76-39 overall)
Texas Tech Offensive Coordinator: Mike Leach
Texas Tech Defensive Coordinator: Ruffin McNeill
Texas Tech Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Baron Batch, RB, 758 yards
• Passing: Taylor Potts, QB, 260 yards
• Receiving: Detron Lewis, WR, 913 yards
• Tackles: Brian Duncan, LB, 89
• Sacks: McKinner Dixon, DE, 8.0
• Interceptions: Brian Duncan, LB, 2; Jamar Wall, CB, 2

Notable Texas Tech Returning Players: LB Bront Bird, WR Edward Britton, C Shawn Byrnes, G Brandon Carter, DT Richard Jones, CB Brent Nickerson, WR Tramain Swindall, DT Colby Whitlock, LB Marlon Williams, OT Marlon Winn

Texas Tech Key Losses: CB Daniel Charbonnet, WR Michael Crabtree, QB Graham Harrell, S Anthony Hines, CB Darcel McBath, WR Eric Morris, OT Rylan Reed, G Louis Vasquez, DE Brandon Williams

2008 was nothing less than the most successful season in Texas Tech football history. The Red Raiders began the year with a 10-0 record that included three straight victories over ranked opponents, including #1 Texas in a game that was the biggest heart-stopping highlight in all of college football! However, the Red Raiders can’t look back because they only have ten returning starters and have to replace most of the key cogs from their high-powered offense. Head coach Mike Leach has never presided over a losing team at Texas Tech and the Red Raiders have won at least eight games in seven consecutive seasons, proving their ability to reload. Can they win eight in eight straight this fall?

The Red Raiders report to camp this year without three year starting quarterback Graham Harrell, two of their top receivers including 1 st round draft pick Michael Crabtree and their leading rusher from last fall. If that wasn’t bad enough, Tech’s mammoth O-Line only returns two starters after allowing a league-low 13 sacks in 2008. Normally, when a team loses over 5,000 passing yards and 45 touchdowns, you’d be concerned. However, prior to Harrell’s three years, Leach actually had different quarterbacks for three consecutive years so he seems to know how to plug in new starters very well. Thus, expect junior Taylor Potts to throw for at least 3,500 yards this season as that has been the norm during Leach’s tenure for a new quarterback. His top two targets will be senior Edward Britton, who had 35 catches and 7 touchdown receptions last fall, and junior Detron Lewis, whose 76 catches and 910 yards are tops among returnees at wide receiver. Tech always has an explosive passing game and I don’t expect anything else in 2009.

The big difference in last season’s offense was that Leach incorporated a running game thanks to a mammoth O-Line. However, with only two starters back, I think that Leach might lean more on his passing attack. Still, junior Baron Batch did run for 750 yards and 7 touchdowns last year and should be the top option when called upon. My big concern about Tech this season is that last year’s exceptional line gave Harrell what seemed like hours to throw the football. Without similar protection for Potts, I think that the Raiders will be more prone to turnovers as Harrell only threw 9 interceptions. This should still be a very productive offense but I expect a big step back from last year’s 44 points per game average.

The Tech defense has to be given credit despite allowing nearly 28 points per game last fall. Their offense scores so quickly and the concept of ball control is practically lost on Leach so the defense spent a ton of time on the field. However, 2008 yielded opponents an extra 60 yards through the air compared to 2007 so Tech needs to improve against the pass after fielding their worst air defense since 2003! Outside of senior cornerback Jamar Wall, who made 62 tackles and picked off two passes last fall, there is precious little experience and that’s a concern. Even worse, they have to replace a safety tandem that picked off twelve passes last season! I’m worried about the defense because the Red Raiders appear vulnerable through the air once more in 2009.

Up front, five of the front seven are back after fielding the best run defense of Leach’s tenure. Three juniors will start together at linebacker for the 2 nd consecutive season after combining for 231 tackles and 4.5 sacks last year. They’ll be playing behind a solid defensive line which will be anchored by junior tackle Colby Whitlock, who is a beast in the middle. I expect another solid effort against the run this fall from Tech. However, I also think that teams could consider abandoning the run because there isn’t much of a pass rush outside of suspended end McKinner Dixon and the secondary looks weak. Texas Tech doesn’t look very strong defending the pass this fall and I think that will really hurt them playing in the country’s most pass-happy league.

The schedule is very typical for Tech: Zero BCS conference opponents outside of Big XII play. The Raiders haven’t played a BCS opponent in the regular season since 2003! However, a dangerous road trip to Houston could be an early pitfall. The Big XII schedule also appears on the surface to be very friendly as they only have three true conference road games as they play Baylor in Arlington to close the year. Unfortunately, their road trips are to Texas, Nebraska and Oklahoma State and the Red Raiders will be underdogs each game as all three are top 25 caliber teams. Also, did I mention that Leach’s career road record is only one game over .500 in 9 years? The Red Raiders do host Oklahoma and Kansas but facing off against the North’s expected top two teams gives them an even tougher conference run.

Overall, Texas Tech has to replace way too much talent from the best offense that Leach has ever fielded to realistically compete in the South this fall. While I’m sure that Tech will score plenty of points like usual, their pass defense looks weak and their offense will fall likely fall back into the middle of the Big XII pack. On top of that, they have a tough conference draw and could face five ranked teams during conference play! With all of this combined, I can only conclude that Texas Tech is going to have a quasi-rebuilding year in 2009. That said, I still expect Leach to take advantage of his typically light non-conference schedule and guide the Red Raiders to at least six or seven wins this fall.

Texas Tech Big Games: Sept. 19th @ Texas, Oct. 17th @ Nebraska, Oct. 24th vs. Texas A&M, Oct. 31st vs. Kansas, Nov. 14th @ Ok St, Nov. 21st vs. Oklahoma, Nov. 28th vs. Baylor (Arlington)

Texas Tech’s Strength:

Coach Mike Leach will always have a dynamic passing offense. Even without Crabtree and Harrell, the passing attack will still be one of the most prolific in the nation. And it is not like the cupboard is totally bare. Receivers Detron Lewis, Edward Britton and Tramain Swindall all tallied at least 500 receiving yards on the year and there are plenty of other less experienced options who will step up and be a big part of the offense. Even running back Baron Batch is a quality pass catcher and can mix in the occasional run. He averaged 6.7 yards per carry as a sophomore and his junior year should be even more productive…especially if Taylor Potts can pick up where Harrell left off. Texas Tech will always have a very productive quarterback and Potts is the next in line. He might not throw 45 touchdowns and just nine interceptions like Harrell did in 2008, but Potts fits into the system and should be very successful.

Texas Tech’s Weakness:

Texas Tech’s weakness has to be on the defensive side of the ball. The defense did very well last year and that is why the Red Raiders were a player in the Big 12 South. But can they keep it up this year without end Brandon Williams? Williams was a terror in the backfield, tallying 12.5 tackles-for-loss and 11 sacks. McKinner Dixon was a pleasant surprise last season, but Coach Leach needs to find another end who can get into the backfield. Williams and Dixon accounted for a majority of the team’s sacks and nobody else on the roster tallied more than three on the season. The defense will not usually mix it up and send the secondary after the quarterback, but consistent pressure from the front four is a must and Dixon cannot do that on his own.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Red Raiders:

The bigger losses are in the secondary and this could very quickly turn into the Texas Tech of old where the offense puts up a ton of points but the defense gives up more. Corner Jamar Wall is a very good corner, but most of his mates in the secondary are gone. If the front line fails to get to the quarterback in this conference any secondary will have big problems. A young and inexperienced secondary like the one in Lubbock will get destroyed.

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