Texas Bowl | Predictions & Pick

Texas Bowl

vs.

llinois Fighting Illini vs. Baylor Bears
Wednesday, December 29, 2010 at 6:00 pm on ESPN

This year’s Texas Bowl pits the Big 12 Baylor Bears against the Fighting Illini of the Big 10 conference in a battle to take place as Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas on Wednesday December 29.

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The Bears have appeared in 16 bowl games and carry an 8-8 record in the matchups, but it’s their first appearance at the Texas Bowl and its first bowl game since losing 10-3 to Washington State in the 1994 Alamo Bowl.

After missing out the past two seasons, Illinois is back in a bowl game. The Fighting Illini has appeared in 15 bowl games losing nine of them. Most recently, they lost the Rose Bowl to USC, 49-17, back in 2008.

The odd makers have the Bears –1 ½ over the Fighting Illini with a total of 62.

Baylor had a roller coaster season dropping three straight against Oklahoma State (55-28), Texas A&M (42-30), and Oklahoma (53-24) to end the season after cracking the BCS top 15 with a 7-2 record heading into November. They finished 4-4 in conference, good enough for a fourth place finish in the Big 12.

As for Illinois, the year was comparatively more consistent as the team never won or lost more than two games in a row, though they did lose three of their last four.  For the year, they went 6-6, 4-4 in conference, and just like Baylor finished fourth in the Big Ten.

Under the direction of first-year offensive coordinator Paul Petrino and led by All-American Mikel Leshoure, Illinois averages 32.1 points per game and relies on a rushing offense which ranked 13^th with 242.3 yards per game.

Leshoure led all Big Ten running backs with 1,513 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns and ran for a school-record 330 yards on 33 carries in a 48-27 win over Northwestern on Nov. 20. The junior ranks eighth in the country with 126.1 rushing yards per game.

Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase is also a big part of the Illini rushing attack opting to use his legs more than his arm scoring four times on 815 yards.  The team ranks 115^th in passing with fewer than 144 yards a game. Scheelhasse completed 137 of 241 passes for 17 touchdowns and 1,583 yards for the entire regular season.

Defensively, the Illini has shown its vulnerability allowing 67 points in a loss to Michigan and 38 while being upset by lowly Minnesota at home, but still rank rank 53^rd with 24.3 points against on average.

That could work in the Illini’s favor as the Bears come into the contest averaging 32.6 points and ranks 12th nationally in total yards per game (478.5)

Sophomore quarterback Robert Griffin who passed for 3,195 yards and 21 touchdowns, has helped lift the Bears to a No. 7 ranking for offense yards, averaging 315.5 yards per game. He did however throw just a single touchdown and three interceptions in three straight losses to close out the regular season.

Despite Griffin’s recent lack of production, the offense finished ranked 20^th overall in passing (278 per game). His favorite target is wide out Kendall Wright who has 66 receptions for a career-high 825 yards.

Main rushing threat Jay Finley, who ran for a whopping 250 yards in the win over Kansas State, helps provided firepower on the ground to keep defenses guessing. The speedster scored 11 times on 183 carries for 1,155 yards, good enough to push the team to a 23^rd spot in the rankings for rushing yards (200.5).

Defensively, the Bears started the 2010 campaign with a solid effort as they held opposing offenses to a total of 29 points in their first four wins. From there, it then unraveled as the Bears allowed more than 40 points six times in 2010.

Baylor won 34-19 at Illinois in the teams’ only previous meeting during the 1976 season.

Illinois has the defensive edge when it’s at the top of its game and is capable of keeping the opposition under ten points, but if Baylor’s defense is playing well, forcing Illinois to pass, the game edges towards the Bears. I expect Illinois to regain form and win this one.

The odds makers have the Baylor Bears as a -1.5 point favorite with an over/under of 62.

MATT’S PREDICTION: Illinois 28, Baylor 21

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Team records:

• Illinois: 6-6 SU, 7-4 ATS
• Baylor: 7-5 SU, 5-6 ATS

Illinois Fighting Illini most recently:

• When playing in December are 1-2
• When playing on grass are 2-8
• After outgaining opponent are 3-7
• When playing outside the conference are 4-6

Baylor Bears most recently:

• When playing on grass are 6-4
• After being outgained are 2-8
• When playing outside the conference are 7-3
• After playing Oklahoma are 1-9

A few betting trends to consider:

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Illinois’s last 6 games
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baylor’s last 8 games
• Baylor is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games