Allstate Sugar Bowl
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vs.
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Ohio State (11-1) vs Arkansas (10-2)
Tuesday, January 4, 2010 at 8:30 pm on ESPN
Superdome – New Orleans, Louisiana
Generally speaking the Big Ten has been taken a beating in the bowls with New Year’s Day an absolute disaster. The conference can try and save face with a top performance by Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. I am not going to comment on their recent infraction stuff other than to say that the outcome was odd and it might mean that some key players could be looking at this game as their last at Ohio State. The Buckeyes have a gaudy record but I have not been impressed with them this season. QB Terrelle Pryor is still more athlete than QB, their running game seems to consistently underperform and their defensive numbers are inflated by a schedule that was pretty light this season. This is not a classic Buckeyes team dripping with NFL talent and they haven’t faced a team that can throw the ball as well Arkansas all season long. Plus we all know how OSU has struggled when facing teams from the SEC.
I really like this Arkansas Razorbacks team. With Ryan Mallett at QB they really push the ball downfield with the pass (4th in the nation) with the emergence of Knile Davis, who has run for more than 110 yards in each of the last 4 games giving them amazing balance. Their only two losses on the season were to Alabama and Auburn and in both of those game they had leads in the second half. This team is only a few plays from switching spots with the Tigers, really. The challenge for Arkansas is on defense. They are improved from years past giving up only 22ppg but they have struggled to get the critical stops that win tight games. Still it might not matter if coach Bobby Petrino has used the extra time to create a wicked gameplan for the Buckeyes.
No history and no common opponents for these two teams. Arkansas is getting their first taste of the BCS while Ohio State plays in one of these games more often than not, with middling success. Both teams have been fantastic against the number this season, a combined 18-5-1. The SEC has been battering the Big Ten this bowl season and that could easily continue on Tuesday night.
Game Prediction: I think Arkansas is going to have little trouble moving the ball against OSU. Look for Ryan Mallett to spread it around and the fast pace in the early going to favour the hogs. They won’t blow them out but I think a solid upset victory will have people talking about how strong the SEC is in advance of the Championship Game.
Score Prediction:
Arkansas – 28
Ohio State – 38
The spread -3 for the Buckeyes. This is great value for Ohio State who I think will win the game outright.
A few trends:
- Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- Razorbacks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Razorbacks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win.
- Buckeyes are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
- Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Buckeyes are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
- Buckeyes are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 bowl games.
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