SMU Mustangs 2009 Football Betting Preview

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SMU 2008 Record: (1-11, 0-8 )
SMU 2008 Bowl: none
SMU Coach: June Jones (1-11 at Southern Methodist, 77-51 overall)
SMU Offensive Coordinator: Dan Morrison
SMU Defensive Coordinator: Tom Mason
SMU Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Chris Butler, RB, 174 yards
• Passing: Bo Levi Mitchell, QB, 2865 yards
• Receiving: Aldrick Robinson, WR, 1,047 yards
• Tackles: Pete Fleps, LB, 106
• Sacks: Youri Yenga, DE, 6.5 sacks
• Interceptions: Bryan McCann, CB, 3

Notable SMU Returning Players: S Chris Banjo, OT Kelvin Beachum, WR Cole Beasley, CB Darius Bell, S Rock Dennis, C Blake McJunkin, WR Emmanuel Sanders, LB Justin Smart, G Bryce Tennison, DE Taylor Thompson, WR Terrance Wilkerson

SMU Key Losses: LB Will Bonilla, OT Vincent Chase, DT Serge Elizee, DT Patrick Handy, G Sean Lobo, RB Andrew McKinney, K/P Thomas Morstead

This once great program continued to suffer last season, registering their second consecutive 1-11 record in head coach June Jones’ first season in charge. The only program to ever be hit with the NCAA’s ‘death penalty’, the Mustangs are still struggling to recover twenty years afterwards. However, Jones’ last stop was at Hawai’i, where he turned the Warriors from a perennial laughingstock to a BCS buster in 2007, so the Mustangs might be in their best position to regain their former glory in two decades. Jones inherited a very bad team in 2008 but after a year at the helm he returns 15 starters and should play a big role in determining the C-USA West division race.

The keys to the offense will belong to sophomore quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell, who was thrown to the fire last season and threw for 2,865 yards and 24 touchdowns against a whopping 23 interceptions. Expect him to cut way back on the turnovers in his second year. Jones’ system is predominantly based upon throwing the ball nearly every play and all four of Mitchell’s starting receivers are back, led by senior Emmanuel Sanders (67 catches, 958 yards, 9 TDs) and junior Aldrick Robinson (59 catches, 1047 yards, 11 TDs). While I don’t expect Mitchell to immediately remind everyone of former Jones pupil Colt Brennan, he will definitely post improved offensive numbers. The offensive line looks better as well with three starters back, though Jones will have to try and balance the offense more after running for an NCAA-low 41 yards per game. His offenses at Hawai’i never registered much lower than double that total! Overall, the Mustangs only put up 21 points per game in 2008 and that number should definitely improve this season. However, a truly dangerous offense appears to still be at least a year away.

The defense was the worst in the conference in 2008, allowing over 38 points per game! The major issue was allowing opponents to gash them to tune of and average of 225 rushing yards! The good news for the Mustangs is that they return five of their top six tacklers. The bad news is that there are still some big holes to be filled. Up front, all three starters in the 3-4 scheme must be replaced and there is very little available experience. In fact, Justin Smart, 2008’s starter at middle linebacker, spent the whole spring at defensive end trying to improve the unit after finishing 2 nd on the team in tackles last fall! He will need to be significantly bigger than his listed 240 pounds to be a major contributor in a three man front. Sophomore end Taylor Thompson has the most returning production actually playing on the line after making 23 tackles in 2008. On the other hand, the linebackers look much stronger with three starters back, led by juniors Pete Fleps and Youri Yenga, who combined for 179 tackles last season. However, they will have trouble avoiding big offensive linemen if their three man front doesn’t occupy lots of blockers. The run defense might be slightly improved but I still expect SMU to struggle on the ground. The secondary is the strongest part of the defense as all four starters are back from 2008. Senior corner Bryan McCann had 3 interceptions and sophomore Chris Banjo notched 61 stops as a true freshman so there are some playmakers for the Mustangs. I believe that the Mustangs will be stronger against the pass compared to last season but if they can’t stop the run then their improvement on defense will be minimal.

The schedule is fairly decent as the Mustangs avoid USM and Memphis from the East and play three divisional home games. Three of the final four games of the season are home games and all are winnable. That’s especially notable as the Mustangs played their hearts out during the second half last year but ran into some of the conference’s best teams. If SMU improves as much during the year as last season then they could easily exceed my expectations. The non-conference schedule is pretty tough as the Mustangs host Navy and travel to Washington State and rival TCU. Overall, I think that Southern Methodist is a much better team on both sides of the ball this year. However, they still have so much catching up to do with the top teams in the conference and are still at least a year away from competing for a bowl game. If the Mustangs win four games this year, it has to be considered a success.

SMU Big Games: Sept. 12th @ UAB, Oct. 3rd @ TCU, Oct. 24th @ Houston, Nov. 7th vs. Rice, Nov. 14th vs. UTEP, Nov. 28th vs. Tulane

SMU’s Strength:

Despite the unproductive offense, SMU still managed to rank 17 th in the nation in pass offense. Bo Levi Mitchell was not always the most consistent quarterback, as his 23 interceptions will show, but he showed plenty of promise that he can be the guy who can make the run and shoot offense work. Having receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Aldrick Robinson should help make things a little easier. Robinson caught 59 passes for 1,047 yards and is the quarterback’s main deep threat. When Robinson is not open, Sanders will be. He caught 67 passes for 958 yards and nine touchdowns as a sophomore. The problem with the offense is the running game. The Mustangs ranked dead last in the country rushing for an amazingly bad 41.42 yards per game. And now their top rusher is gone. SMU will not want to run too much, but junior Chris Butler and sophomore Bryce Lunday better take advantage of the opportunities that they do have.

Southern Methodist’s Weakness:

The good news is that the defense returns eight starters. That is where the good news ends for the SMU defense. The team gave up nearly 479.5 yards and 38.2 points per game, ranking last in the conference in both categories. The best thing the defense did was get to the quarterback. It is not like they tallied a lot of sacks, but now three key pieces of the line are gone and the Mustangs have to retool. This is still a relatively young group and they can only get better. End Youri Yenga is probably the best player on defense and it will be up to him to get into the backfield and disrupt the opposing offense as much as possible. If Yenga can force the opposition to hurry, the rest of the defense will be much better. Linebackers Pete Fleps and Justin Smart have potential and the secondary could be pretty good, led by corners Darius Bell and Bryan McCann and safeties Chris Banjo and Rock Dennis.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Mustangs:

The 2009 season has to be better than 2008. Coach Jones knows what he is doing, but it will simply take time to get players into his offense that can run the show as well as players like Colt Brennan did at Hawaii. That will come with time, but just like the teams at Hawaii, the difference between a decent year and a great year will be the development of the defense. And it is on that side of the ball where SMU has to improve if they want to win more than one game this year.

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