San Diego State Aztecs 2009 Football Betting Preview

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San Diego State 2008 Record: (2-10, 1-7)
San Diego State 2008 Bowl: none
San Diego State Coach: Brady Hoke (First year at San Diego State, 34-38 overall)
San Diego State Offensive Coordinator: Al Borges
San Diego State Defensive Coordinator: Rocky Long
San Diego State Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Atiyyah Henderson, RB, 490 yards
• Passing: Ryan Lindley, QB, 2,653 yards
• Receiving: Vincent Brown, WR, 631 yards
• Tackles: Luke Laolagi, LB, 99
• Sacks: B.J. Williams, DE, 3.5
• Interceptions: Jose Perez, CB, 2

Notable San Diego State Returning Players: G Ikaika Aken Moleta, C Trask Iosefa, TE Matthew Kawulak, DT Ernie Lawson, DT Jerome Long, CB Aaron Moore, OT Peter Nelson, LB Andrew Preston, DE Jonathan Soto, WR Roberto Wallace

San Diego State Key Losses: LB Russell Allen, S Corey Boudreaux, DT Siaosi Fifita, S T.J. McKay, CB Vonnie Holmes, OT Lance Louis, WR Darren Mougey, G Mike Schmidt

Of the three teams who changed head coaches in the Mountain West this past offseason, San Diego State appears to have made the strongest hire. Brady Hoke arrives in town from Ball State after guiding the Cardinals to a 12-1 record last fall and he will be the next in a long line of coaches who will attempt to take advantage of SDSU’s built in strengths. Seriously, how does a school located in the middle of one of America’s most beautiful cities that plays in an NFL stadium and happens to be smack dab in the middle of one of the most fertile recruiting territories in the country manage to avoid a winning season in the last ten years? That’s unfathomable. The Aztecs routinely end up in the top half of the league when it comes to recruiting rankings but three previous coaches have failed to translate that into success on the field. With fifteen starters back, Hoke has a chance to change that in his first season.

On offense, sophomore Ryan Lindley will look to build upon a strong freshman campaign which saw him throw for 2,653 yards and 16 touchdowns against only 9 interceptions. He also returns both of his starting receivers and his entire backfield. Junior receiver Vincent Brown could be in for a big year after catching 61 passes for 631 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2008. After averaging an anemic 73 yards per game on the ground in 2008, I expect Hoke to place a renewed emphasis on the running game and that means senior Atiyyah Henderson is in for a much improved season after only running for 490 yards and 4 touchdowns to lead the team in 2008. What will really tell the tale of the tape for the Aztecs is the performance of the offensive line, which underachieved last season and lost their best performer to the NFL draft. If SDSU can find a solid offensive line, their running game is virtually guaranteed to improve and the Aztecs should make a big jump in offensive production.

The defense was the worst in the conference in 2008, allowing a league-high 37 points per game. However, Hoke made a fantastic hire on defense, bringing in longtime New Mexico head coach Rocky Long as the defensive coordinator. Long has fielded many fine defenses in the past decade and knows the opposition in the Mountain West very well. His first priority will be to fix the run defense, which allowed an average of nearly 250 yards per game on the ground in 2008. In that vein, six of the front seven from last season return and should be much improved with a year’s experience. The Aztecs’ 3 man line will be led by junior defensive end BJ Williams, whose 74 tackles and 3.5 sacks earned him 2 nd team All-MWC honors last fall. Long loves to blitz, so the linebackers should be a threat to get to the quarterback every down. Expect senior Luke Laolagi to improve upon his 99 tackles from a year ago as the group’s leader. I expect the run defense and the sack totals (only 13 last year) to improve significantly this fall. The secondary is a much bigger concern as only senior Aaron Moore returns among the starters. However, they allowed nearly 66 percent of opposing passes to find their mark and the situation was so desperate in the spring that the Aztecs might start former wide receiver Brandon Davis at safety this fall. Junior Jose Perez did have two picks as a backup last year so I expect that he will be an improvement but last season’s only saving grace was that opposing teams didn’t need to pass because the run defense was so bad. Overall, I think that the run defense will be significantly better but the best pass defense that the Aztecs can muster is a significantly improved pass rush up front. I think that the defense will be much improved this year but they’ll still be vulnerable through the air.

The schedule is an interesting mix. The non-conference schedule’s only major landmine is a road trip to still-rebuilding UCLA and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Aztecs finish 3-1 outside of conference play. The conference schedule also features a stretch where five out of six games are at home, which could be huge for SDSU finding a winning rhythm. While road games at Air Force, Utah and UNLV won’t be easy, the Aztecs’ schedule won’t be an impediment to a strong turnaround. Overall, I expect the Aztecs to be much improved in every facet of the game and if Brady Hoke can live up to my expectations in conference play, he could kick off his San Diego State career with a trip to a bowl game.

San Diego State Big Games: Sept. 26th @ Air Force, Oct. 17th vs. BYU, Oct. 24th @ CSU, Oct. 14th vs. Wyoming, Nov. 28th @ UNLV

San Diego State’s Strength:

Coach Hoke is a solid offensive coach and he could turn what was a young and inexperienced group into something pretty good. It all starts with quarterback Ryan Lindley. As a freshman the signal caller completed nearly 57 percent of his pass attempts and threw 16 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. The touchdown to interception ratio could certainly be better, but that is not bad at all for a freshman. Lindley will certainly miss wideout Darren Mougey, but Vincent Brown, who led the team with 64 receptions, is back and Roberto Wallace is an experienced senior and a reliable target. It is on the ground where the offense really struggled in 2008. Linemen Ikaika Aken Moleta, Trask Iosefa and Peter Nelson have to do a better job paving the way for the ground game and backs Atiyyah Henderson and Brandon Sullivan have to make the most of their opportunities or the offense will be one dimensional.

San Diego State’s Weakness:

The defense ranked near the bottom of the MWC in nearly every major statistical category last season. Coordinator Rocky Long has his work cut out for him, especially now that linebacker Russell Allen and safety Corey Boudreaux, the team’s two most reliable defenders, are gone. The front four returns everybody, but this is a team that ranked 108 th in the nation in sacks. If ends Jonathan Soto and B.J. Williams cannot get into the backfield, there is no reason to believe that the defense will be any better than it was last year. The addition of Coach Long could help, but he can only work with what he has and it will take time to get more talent into the program.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Aztecs:

Coach Hoke has proven that he can lead a talented offense. He did it at Ball State and he will do it at SDSU as well. And that could happen right away if Lindley is ready to take the next step and a couple young receivers can emerge as reliable targets. But the real questions regarding this team are on defense. Seven starters are back on that side of the ball, so there is hope, but a few players have to take a big step up if they want to replace Allen and Boudreaux’s production.

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