Rose Bowl
 |
vs.
|
 |
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, January 1, 2010 at 4:30 pm on ESPN
Click Here for FREE Expert Bowl Picks
Wisconsin (11-1) travels to Pasadena to take on TCU (12-0) in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day.
This is a matchup between power and speed. The Badgers are a traditional Big Ten-style squad, emphasizing brute strength and a grind-it-out running game. The Horned Frogs have speed all over the place and play an up-tempo style on both sides of the ball. This is the first Wisconsin trip to Pasadena since the 2000 Rose Bowl and it’s TCU’s first-ever appearance in a BCS bowl.
As usual, the Badger running game and offensive line are among the best in the country. James White (1,029), John Clay (936) and Montee Ball (864) run behind a line unit that features two All-Americans. Wisconsin averaged 247 yards per game on the ground and its 46 rushing touchdowns was second nationally. But the Badgers are hardly one-dimensional. Quarterback Scott Tolzien completed a nation-leading 74 percent of his passes to go with 2,300 yards and 16 scores. He has an All-American tight end in Lance Kendricks to throw to, not to mention talented receiver Nick Toon. However, the Badgers don’t try to fool you on offense. They run right at you and challenge you to stop them.
Wisconsin also features a top 20 defensive unit that is solid against the run but a bit vulnerable against the pass. Defensive end J.J. Watt is the main disruptor of this unit, as he totaled 20.5 tackles for loss to lead the Badgers.
TCU’s offense is led by its dynamic quarterback Andy Dalton, who finished in the top 10 of the Heisman voting while throwing for 2,638 yards and 26 touchdowns and rushing for 407 yards and five scores. He directs a spread option attack that placed fourth nationally in scoring and ninth in total offense. This is a dynamic unit that can stretch the field with speedsters like running back Ed Wesley (1,065 yards, 11 TDs) or wide out Josh Boyce (team high 602 receiving yards). The Horned Frogs roll up 260 yards per game on the ground and tend to wear teams down over the course of a game.
But it’s on defense where TCU stands out. The Horned Frogs have the nation’s No. 1 defense, giving up just 215 yards per game, which is the lowest average given up by any defense in the past decade. This unit is led by led by linebacker Tanner Brock (97 tackles), safety Colin Jones (70 tackles, 10 1/2 for loss) and end Wayne Daniels (6 1/2 sacks) and has speed all over the place. When push comes to shove, speed tends to win out over power.
A lot of people are high on Wisconsin in this game, but history is littered with the corpses of Big Ten power teams getting walloped in Pasadena on New Year’s Day. I don’t think this year will be any different. The Horned Frogs are favored by 3 and the total is 58.5. Look for TCU to complete an undefeated season with a solid win.
The odds makers have the TCU Horned Frogs as a -3 point favorite with an over/under of 58.
Matt’s Free Prediction: TCU 28, Wisconsin 17
Bet the Rose Bowl game using your credit card and to get a VERY generous sign up bonus at BetUS.
Team records:
- TCU: 12-0 SU, 6-5 ATS
- Wisconsin: 11-1 SU, 6-5 ATS
TCU Horned Frogs most recently:
- When playing in January are 0-1
- When playing on grass are 9-1
- After outgaining opponent are 10-0
- When favored on the road are 9-1
Wisconsin Badgers most recently:
- When playing in January are 4-3
- When playing on grass are 4-6
- After outgaining opponent are 8-2
- When an underdog at home are 6-4
A few betting trends to consider:
- TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Wisconsin’s last 8 games
A lot of people are high on Wisconsin in this game, but history is littered with the corpses of Big Ten power teams getting walloped in Pasadena on New Year’s Day.