Rice Owls 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Rice 2008 Record: (10-3, 7-1)
Rice 2008 Bowl: Texas Bowl vs. Western Michigan (W 38-14)
Rice Coach: David Bailiff (13-12 at Rice, 34-27 overall)
Rice Offensive Coordinator: Ed Zaunbrecher
Rice Defensive Coordinator: Chuck Driesbach and Craig Naivar
Rice Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Jeramy Goodson, RB, 69 yards
• Passing: John Thomas Shepherd, QB, 78 yards
• Receiving: Toren Dixon, WR, 598 yards
• Tackles: Andrew Sendjo, S, 94
• Sacks: Scott Soloman, DE, 4.5
• Interceptions: Andrew Sendjo, S, 3

Notable Rice Returning Players: S Travis Bradshaw, LB Terrance Garmon, OT Jake Hicks, CB Chris Jammer, S Chris Jones, OT Scott Mitchell, DE Cheta Ozougwu, WR Corbin Smith, DT Chance Talbert

Rice Key Losses: TE James Casey, QB Chase Clement, WR Jarett Dillard, LB Vernon James, CB Brandon King, G Jimmy Miller, LB Brian Raines, CB Ja’Corey Sheperd, RB C.J. Ugokwe, C Austin Wilkinson

Last year was the most successful season for Rice football in the past 60 years! That’s not an exaggeration: Rice’s 10-3 record marked their first ten win season since 1949! Their historic season was capped off by a Texas Bowl blowout of Western Michigan in their home town and the Owls’ 7-1 league record was also their best finish since joining Conference USA. However, last season’s achievements need to be put aside as the Owls have a daunting task ahead after losing most of their playmakers on offense. Can Rice’s 13 returning starters keep the Owls among the best in C-USA?

On offense, the Owls lose their top two rushers, top two receivers, three starting offensive linemen and a record breaking quarterback! Chase Clement threw for an incredible 44 touchdowns against only seven interceptions last fall and powered Rice to over 41 points per game! The only major experience on offense that remains after all of that attrition is at receiver, where seniors Torbin Dixon and Corbin Smiter return after combining for 80 catches, 1,085 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2008. That might sound impressive but both of the Owls’ top two receivers last season eclipsed their combined totals by a healthy margin. Rice has so much rebuilding to do that the drop off in production will be precipitous. I would not be surprised if the Owls’ scoring was cut in half this fall and I expect Rice to go from one of the conference’s best offenses to one of its worst.

The defense is significantly more experienced as nine starters are back from last year. However, the 2008 defense allowed over 33 points per game so there will have to be significant improvement if the Owls are going to compete this fall. Up front, three starters are back after combining for 9.5 sacks and 108 tackles in 2008. I expect all three to be much stouter this fall against the run. Both linebackers are back as well in Rice‘s 4-2-5 defense and I think that seniors Robert Calhoun and Terrance Garmon will both provide significantly more production this fall behind a stronger defensive line. Rice allowed over 180 rushing yards per game last season and I think that will improve this fall. The secondary is also very veteran, featuring four returning starters. Senior Andrew Sendejo rang up 94 tackles to lead the team last season and sophomore safety Travis Bradshaw was second with 89 tackles. In fact, the secondary had three of last season’s top four tacklers! While I think that Rice will be improved against the run and very strong against the pass, I don’t think that it will be enough to make them a top defense in C-USA.

With a rebuilding team, Rice has to hope that they got a break from the schedule makers. Unfortunately, they have a brutal non-conference schedule featuring trips to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. They also host Vanderbilt and Navy outside of conference play, giving the Owls one of the most difficult non-conference schedules in the country. Furthermore, they draw trips to East Carolina and Alabama-Birmingham out of the East and if they don’t win on the road against UAB to start the season, they could easily be looking at a 0-7 start to the year! Rice’s offense loses more talent than any other unit in the entire conference and their defense doesn’t improve nearly enough to make up for it. I simply don’t think that Rice is going to be very good this year and their killer opening schedule gives this season the potential to be disastrous. With everything going against them, I don’t think Rice is going to win more than two games in 2009.

Rice Big Games: Sept. 5th @ UAB, Oct. 3rd vs. Tulsa, Oct. 24th vs. UCF, Nov. 7th @ SMU, Nov. 14th vs. Tulane, Nov. 21st vs. UTEP, Nov. 28th @ Houston

Rice’s Strength:

It is impossible for the offense not to take a step back after losing quarterback Chase Clement, wide receiver Jarett Dillard and tight end James Casey. It was those three who turned Rice into the fifth most prolific offense in the nation. There are options at quarterback. John Thomas Shepherd has the most experience in the program, but redshirt freshman Ryan Lewis has plenty of potential and Alabama transfer Nick Fanuzzi had a solid spring. Even without Dillard and Casey, the Owls have some quality receivers. Toren Dixon caught 50 passes last year and Corbin Smiter emerged as a big play receiver. The ground game should be better this year, especially while the passing game readjusts. Senior Jeramy Goodson only carried the ball 12 times last year and that has left the door open for Tyler Smith. Smith has had a great spring and could turn the ground attack into a formidable force.

Rice’s Weakness:

The defense returns eight starters, but this was a unit that ranked 111th in the nation in total defense. Rice was extremely young on this side of the ball last year and they are not much older this time around. However, the year of experience should make the team better. However, how much better will they be? Without the offense putting up huge numbers, the defense will have to step it up. Safety Andrew Sendejo needs to turn into a leader right now and linebacker Terrance Garmon has to step up his production. Defensive ends Scott Solomon and Cheta Ozougwu are now upperclassmen and they will need to do a much better job getting into the backfield.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Owls:

While the program is on the rise, the Owls will take a step back this year without all their offensive superstars. If the defense can pick up the slack and the offense can find a few new stars, Rice can reach another bowl game. It will be of the utmost importance that Coach Bailiff finds a new quarterback who can get the ball down field and avoid making mistakes. Any help from the ground game would make the offense that much better.

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