Poinsettia Bowl | Predictions & Pick

San Diego Country Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

vs.

Navy Midshipmen (9-3) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (8-4)
Thursday, December 23, 2010 at 8:00 pm on ESPN
Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego California

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Navy has quietly become one of the most consistent winning programs in America the last few seasons.  Were it not for an unexpected stumble against Duke they would be entering this contest with 10 wins resulting from using their triple option offense to cut more athletic teams down to size.  They have even turned the tables on Notre Dame with back to back wins.  In fact, it is no longer really an upset.  To beat the midshipmen you have to play smart on defense and limit your mistakes.  This team operates like a well oiled machines but in most cases they have less talent than their opponents.  They win through flawless executions and limited mistakes.  Their X-Factor is QB Ricky Dobbs.  When he is making the right reads they are near impossible to stop.

The San Diego State Aztecs are an exciting team who whose 4 losses are by a combined 15 points.  If you think TCU might be the best team in America than you have to respect the team that played them closer than anybody all season (I know I do).  SDSU is blessed with great skill players. QB Ryan Lindley will be play on Sundays in the future and they have the best duo of WRs in DeMarco Sampson and Vincent Brown (both big and fast).  Toss in RB Ronnie Hillman, their best back in a generation, who was probably the best freshman in the country and they have a plethora of weapons to exploit a Navy defense that isn’t overflowing with athletes.  Perhaps too many for the Middies.

The Aztecs have the added advantage of playing a bowl in their home stadium – they are one of three teams doing so this year.  Navy usually plays the underdog role well but in this case the fans are unlikely to turn on the Aztecs as it has been some time since they have had much to cheer about.  Brady Hoke has really turned this program around and with the conference shakeup in the MWC they are a legitimate contender next season.

Game Prediction: The Mountain West has won 4 straight Poinsettia Bowls and I think SDSU will make it five.  Navy has played here twice before with a 1-1 record but they will struggles against the Aztec offense and aren’t built to comeback.

Score Prediction:
San Diego State – 33
Navy – 28

The spread is -4.5 for San Diego State…Not a ton of value but it is possible the Aztecs blow them out.

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Navy Midshipmen Betting Trends:

• Midshipmen are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
• Midshipmen are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. MWC.
• Midshipmen are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
• Navy is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Navy’s last 6 games

San Diego State Aztecs Betting Trends:

• San Diego State is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
• San Diego State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
• Aztecs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Aztecs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.