Oklahoma State Cowboys 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Oklahoma State 2008 Record: (9-4, 5-3)
Oklahoma State 2008 Bowl: Holiday Bowl vs. Oregon (L 31-42)
Oklahoma State Coach: Mike Gundy (27-23 at Oklahoma State, 27-23 overall)
Oklahoma State Offensive Coordinator: Gunter Brewer and Joe Wickline
Oklahoma State Defensive Coordinator: Bill Young
Oklahoma State Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Kendall Hunter, RB, 1,555 yards
• Passing: Zac Robinson, QB, 3,064 yards
• Receiving: Dez Bryant, WR, 1,480 yards
• Tackles: Andre Sexton, LB, 100
• Sacks: Jeremiah Price, DE, 3.0
• Interceptions: Perrish Cox, CB, 2; Patrick Lavine, LB, 2

Notable Oklahoma State Returning Players: K Dan Bailey, OT Brady Bond, DE Derek Burton, DE Ugo Chinasa, WR DeMarcus Conner, LB Orie Lemon, C Andrew Lewis, OT Russell Okung, RB Keith Toston

Oklahoma State Key Losses: DT Jeray Chatham, G Steve Denning, P Matt Fodge, CB Jacob Lacey, S Quinton Moore, TE Brandon Pettigrew, S Ricky Price, DT Tonga Tea

A lot of people’s eyes were opened by Oklahoma State’s enormously successful season in 2008, as the Cowboys finished with their first winning Big XII record since 2003. Among the memorable moments from last fall was a shocking upset of #3 Missouri en route to a 7-0 start that vaunted Okie State as high as 7th in the national polls! Unfortunately, the Cowpokes lost road games at #1 Texas and #2 Texas Tech and couldn’t overcome eventual National Runner Up Oklahoma on the season’s final day. The Cowboys were the only team in America to play four teams that were ranked in the top 3 at game time! Their #16 final ranking was the best since head coach Mike Gundy was the school’s starting quarterback in the 1980s! With a large portion of last year’s high-powered attack back, can the team that I ranked 4th in the country after spring practice defeat one of the South’s twin towers and earn a berth in the Big XII Championship Game?

Their powerful offense featured two 2008 1st team All-Americans: junior tailback Kendall Hunter, who rushed for 1,555 yards and 16 touchdowns, and junior receiver Dez Bryant, who caught 87 passes for 1,480 yards and 19 touchdowns! They’re not the only wealth of experience returning for the Pokes either, as senior quarterback Zach Robinson passed for 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns while rushing for over 550 yards and 8 scores! The Okie State offense was so good that senior backup tailback Keith Toston is an afterthought and he ran for 680 yards and 9 touchdowns! Assuming that another receiver steps up next to the supremely talented Bryant, Oklahoma State is going to be vicious through the air and on the ground.

Of course, none of this would be possible without a strong O-Line and Gundy’s troops have three returning senior starters. Led by 1st team All-Big XII selection and likely 1st round NFL draft pick Russell Okung, the line should be one of the best in the Big XII, making this offense downright scary. In summary: 250 rush yards and 41 points per game last fall, three returning 1 st team All-Big XII selections, two of which were 1st team All-Americans, a powerful offensive line and a very talented senior quarterback. There is no question that Oklahoma State is going to have one of the best offenses in the entire country this fall.

Defensively, the Pokes were strong against the run last year but had a ton of trouble stopping the pass, especially late in the year. Respected defensive guru Bill Young is the new coordinator and will have virtual autonomy on defense as Gundy spends most of the defense’s time on the field working on his offense with his back to the field. The 2009 edition returns two starters on the line after fielding a stout run defense last fall. Unfortunately, Okie State never developed much of a pass rush, only getting to the quarterback 15 times all year! I expect a little bit more of a pass rush from the line this season only because I’m not sure how it can get any worse. At linebacker, the Cowboys return three senior starters who combined for 260 tackles last fall and Andre Sexton was a 2nd team All-Big XII choice. Expect another very strong run defense but the pass rush is going to be a concern.

The pass rush is an even bigger issue as the only returning starter in the secondary is senior Perrish Cox. Young will have to rush an extra man much more often because the secondary was a liability last fall and was the primary reason that Oklahoma State lost their three conference games. Young will have to do a lot of work quickly with this massively inexperienced unit that is the team’s only true liability. I like the front seven to produce a very solid rush defense but replacing most of the secondary in this league will be very difficult and for that reason alone I can’t say that this will be any better than an average Big XII defense.

The schedule is going to be very interesting this fall. Oklahoma State has eight home games but their first two are against SEC power Georgia to open the year and C-USA powerhouse Houston. Those are two really tough teams to debut a new secondary against! The conference schedule features visits from Missouri and Colorado from the North along with a trip to ISU so the Cowboys avoid the top two teams. However, the all-important games against Texas and Oklahoma take place during the season’s second half and the Pokes have to travel to Norman to play the archrival Sooners.

Frankly, I was all set to pick the Cowboys to win the Big XII South as I absolutely love their offense. I also really like their front seven’s strength and this could be the best run defense Gundy has fielded. However, I couldn’t justify picking the Cowboys to beat either Texas or Oklahoma when both teams have Heisman Trophy-caliber quarterbacks and the Pokes have a brand new secondary and an underwhelming pass rush. However, since the secondary is such an unknown, the opening two games against Georgia and Houston will be very telling since both teams have great passing games. If Oklahoma State can play well against both, I will be much more bullish on their chances in the division. That said, this is a loaded team at almost every other position. They have eight home games and will enter the season as a top ten team in virtually every poll. There will be games where their secondary won’t matter because their offense will simply steamroll teams and I can’t see Oklahoma State winning any less than nine games this fall. If the secondary can play well early against Georgia then the Cowboys will be a legitimate threat to win the Big XII and they’re a very sneaky pick in the National Title scene.

Oklahoma State Big Games: Sept. 5th vs. Georgia, Sept. 12th vs. Houston, Oct. 10th @ Texas A&M, Oct. 31st vs. Texas, Nov. 14th vs. Texas Tech, Nov. 19th vs. Colorado, Nov. 28th @ Oklahoma

Oklahoma State’s Strength:

Eight starters return on offense and that should make this one of the most dangerous and dynamic offenses in the nation. Tight end Brandon Pettigrew will be missed, but the rest of the skill players are back. Quarterback Zac Robinson proved to be a dangerous player with his arm and his legs and he will have plenty of help in both categories. Even without Pettigrew, the Cowboys have a ton of receiving threats. Most notable is Dez Bryant who caught 87 passes for 1,480 yards and 19 touchdowns a year ago. On the ground the dynamic duo of Kendall Hunter and Keith Toston accounted for 2,241 yards and 27 touchdowns. Losing David Washington and Steve Denning off of the line is not a good thing, but with the return of tackle Russell Okung, the line should give the offense plenty of time to pick apart the opposing defense.

Oklahoma State’s Weakness:

The defense failed to get pressure on the opposing quarterback and in a league like the Big 12 where there are so many pass happy offenses, that spells trouble. Starting defensive ends Derek Burton and Ugo Chinasa are back, but those two combined for a mere 2.5 sacks on the season. Somebody has to find a way to get to the quarterback or the secondary will get thrown all over…just like last season. This year it could be even worse since three of the four starters are gone. Corner Perrish Cox is the only returning player in the secondary with any major starting experience. And while it is never a good time to bring in a new secondary, it is even worse right now in the Big 12 South when every team wants to throw.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Cowboys:

Coach Gundy will have this offense moving and what makes them different than some other teams in the Big 12 is the fact that they can pass and run. That versatility puts a ton of pressure on the opposing defenses. However, OSU does not have as much talent on the defensive side of the ball as teams like Texas and Oklahoma and that will once again have the Cowboys on the outside looking in at a Big 12 title.

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