Nevada Wolf Pack 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Nevada 2008 Record: (7-6, 5-3)
Nevada 2008 Bowl: Humanitarian Bowl vs. Maryland (L 35-42)Nevada Coach: Chris Ault (198-91-1 at Nevada, 198-91-1 overall)
Nevada Offensive Coordinator: Chris Klenakis
Nevada Defensive Coordinator: Nigel Burton
Nevada Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Vai Taua, RB, 1,521 yards
• Passing: Colin Kaepernick, QB, 2,849 yards
• Receiving: Chris Wellington, WR, 632 yards
• Tackles: Jonathon Amaya, S, 68
• Sacks: Dontay Moch, DE, 11.5
• Interceptions: Jonathan Amaya, S, 4

Notable Nevada Returning Players: DT Nate Agaiava, DE Kevin Basped, G John Bender, OT Alonzo Durham, OT Mike Gallett, TE Virgil Green, LB James-Michael Johnson, LB Brandon Marshall, CB Antoine Thompson

Nevada Key Losses: S Uche Anyanwu, DT Mundrae Clifton, C Dominic Green, G Greg Hall, K Brett Jaekle, LB Jerome Johnson, LB Joshua Mauga, WR Mike McCoy, WR Marko Mitchell

Despite finishing with a 7-6 record last fall and a 5-3 conference record, I was very impressed with the Wolf Pack every time I saw them play. This was largely due to their impressive offensive attack but when I see a team play twice and lose both games, yet come away impressed, then I’m going to be very high on seeing improvement the next season. Improvement seems to be the best word to sum up Nevada going into 2009.

Their high-flying offense is led by junior quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who ran for 1,130 yards and 17 touchdowns last year while passing for 2,850 yards and 22 touchdowns. This incredible performance earned him 2008 WAC Offensive Player of the Year honors. Needless to say, any offense where such a superstar is the triggerman is very likely to be one of the country’s best and their 37.6 points per game production last year is a testament to his abilities. However, it isn’t just Kaepernick who makes this offense tick. Junior tailback Vai Taua ran for 1,521 yards and 15 touchdowns and provides the Wolf Pack with a two-headed monster running the ball which will try to match last year’s incredible 278 rush yards per game! The offensive line is going to be very important in matching that total and with three starters back, including both tackles who were 2 nd team All-WAC selections last year, I believe they will be just as good as 2008’s very solid line. The only worry is at receiver, where Marko Mitchell will be badly missed after catching 61 passes for 1,141 yards and 10 touchdowns a year ago. Expect junior Chris Wellington to become the top target after accounting for over 600 yards and 6 touchdowns last fall. Despite the questions at receiver, the Wolf Pack will challenge Boise State for the title of the conference’s best offense.

Defensively, the Wolf Pack is in need of improvement after allowing over 32 points per game last fall. For comparison’s sake, that’s twenty points more pergame than Boise State! The good news is that the majority of their defense is back with another year’s experience under their belts and should be much improved this year. Up front, the defensive line boasts the conference’s best DE pairing in juniors Kevin Basped (1 st team All-WAC in 2008 ) and Dontay Moch (2 nd team All-WAC in 2008 ), who combined for 100 tackles and 21.5 sacks last year. They will book end a line which allowed only 89 yards per game on the ground last fall and should be similarly strong once more. The linebackers were banged up last year and only sophomore J.M. Johnson returns to from the starters. However, a year of good health should actually improve their production and I expect them to form a solid group. The secondary returns three starters, led by senior safety Jonathon Amaya, who led the team in tackles and interceptions last year. The Wolf Pack should be much improved against the pass after allowing over 310 yards per game through the air last fall and I expect this defense to be a significantly better unit this season.

The schedule is a mixed bag. Nevada must travel to San Jose State and the blue hole in Boise but hosts Fresno State, Louisiana Tech and Hawai’i. In the non-conference slate, the Wolf Pack open up at Notre Dame with the chance to make history in South Bend before hosting Big 12 foe Missouri at night in late September. The good news is that Nevada is so talented that road trips shouldn’t be an impediment to having a massively successful season this year and I think this team has the potential to compete for the conference title. After a near-miss against Boise State last year and the Broncos’ subsequent losses up front on defense, I nearly picked the Wolf Pack and their powerful run game to win the conference in 2008. However, as a WAC team winning in Boise is unprecedented, I elected to play it safe and pick Boise State. That said, I think that Nevada is the one team in the WAC that could knock off the Broncos and win the conference championship this year. Even if they fall short of that lofty goal, the Wolf Pack has a very real chance to win ten games this fall with Kaepernick at the helm. Notre Dame had better not take the Wolf Pack lightly in the season opener because this team will be very good in 2009.

Nevada Big Games: Sept. 5th @ Notre Dame, Sept. 25th vs. Mizzou, Nov. 14th vs. Fresno State, Nov. 27th @ Boise State

Nevada’s Strength:

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick had an amazing sophomore campaign, throwing for 2,849 yards and running for another 1,130. That resulted in an incredible 39 total touchdowns for Kaepernick. Now that he is an upperclassman Kaepernick should really shine. Yet, despite Kaepernick’s domination on the ground, Vai Taua was the team’s leading rusher with 1,521 yards. This is a team that ranked third in the entire country in rushing offense and fifth in total offense. The only thing that could stop those numbers from going even further up is the absence of receivers Marko Mitchell and Mike McCoy. Junior Chris Wellington is a big play receiver, but the Wolf Pack have to find a few more options for Kaepernick. The offensive line does return three starters, but center Dominic Green will be missed.

Nevada’s Weakness:

If the defense was not so bad, the 2008 season could have been very special for Nevada. The good news is the offense will still be good and the defense can be nothing but better. No team in the country gave up more yards through the air than the Wolf Pack and that has to change. It is not like the opposition had all day to throw against the team. Nevada tallied nearly three sacks per game, ranking first in the conference. That could be the case again with the return of ends Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch, who both tallied at least ten sacks on the season. The young linebackers are growing up and should be better, but it still all falls on the secondary. Senior Jonathan Amaya is the leader of the unit, but players like Isaiah Frey, Mo Harvey and Antoine Thompson have to step up and do a better job.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Wolf Pack:

If the pass defense does improve, this could be a great year for Nevada. The non-conference schedule is brutal and teams like Notre Dame and Missouri might have field days throwing against the secondary early in the year, but by the time the conference season rolls around, the secondary should be better. And if they are, the Wolf Pack will be in the mix for a conference championship.

Nevada Betting Odds

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