Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Minnesota 2008 Record: (7-6, 3-5)
Minnesota 2008 Bowl: Insight Bowl vs. Kansas (L 21-42)
Minnesota Coach: Tim Brewster (8-17 at Minnesota, 8-17 overall)
Minnesota Offensive Coordinator: Jedd Fisch
Minnesota Defensive Coordinator: Kevin Cosgrove and Ronnie Lee
Minnesota Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: DeLeon Eskridge, RB, 678 yards
• Passing: Adam Weber, QB, 2,761 yards
• Receiving: Eric Decker, WR, 1,074 yards
• Tackles: Lee Campbell, LB, 80
• Sacks: Lee Campbell, LB, 4.0; Simoni Lawrence, LB, 4.0
• Interceptions: Traye Simmons, CB, 4

Notable Minnesota Returning Players: OT Dom Alford, DT Garrett Brown, C Trey Davis, WR Brandon Green, WR Ben Kuznia, DE Derrick Onwuachi, CB Marcus Sherels, DT Eric Small, OT Matt Stommes, S Kyle Theret

Minnesota Key Losses: S Tramaine Broc, LB Deon Hightower, P Justin Kucek, K Joel Monroe, TE Jack Simmons, DE Willie VanDeSteeg

Minnesota engineered the biggest turnaround in the country last fall, jumping from a pathetic 1-11 season to a solid 7-6 finish. Head coach Tim Brewster is one of the country’s most enthusiastic recruiters and last season established his credentials as a solid coach as well. Minnesota returns the most starters in the entire conference and opens up their beautiful brand new outdoor campus facility, TCF Bank Stadium. There is serious momentum with the Golden Gophers and another winning season would continue moving the program toward serious contention for the Big Ten Championship. Will returning football to Minnesota’s campus for the first time in three decades spark a big year?

The Gophers made a big change on offense during the spring, bringing in new offensive coordinator Jedd Finch from the Denver Broncos and installing a pro style offense. Luckily, the Gophers’ starting quarterback is junior Adam Weber, who enters his third season under center. Weber and the rest of the offense’s experience should allow them to make an easier transition to the new system. Weber also has a very solid set of receivers, led by senior Eric Decker, who had 84 catches for 1,075 yards and 7 touchdowns last year. He’ll be joined by the country’s top junior college receiver, junior Hayo Carpenter, who should have a big impact this fall. Also watch out for freshman quarterback MarQueis Gray, who Brewster said was too good not to see the field as a change of pace player and I expect to see some trick plays almost every game.

The rushing attack should also be significantly stronger than last year. Sophomores Duane Bennett (who was the starter until missing most of the year with an injury) and DeLeon Eskridge give the Gophers two very solid options to run the football in their new scheme. They’ll run behind what appears to be a very good offensive line that should be significantly improved from last year, when Brewster actually fired the O-Line coach during the season. Junior Notre Dame transfer Matt Carufel should make an especially big impact at guard now that he’s eligible. Overall, I think that the Gophers should definitely improve upon last year’s paltry production of 23 points per game and this could be one of the conference’s stronger units.

Defensively, the Golden Gophers were significantly improved last year and allowed 12 points per game less than in 2007. However, they still finished 8 th in the Big Ten in scoring defense at 25 points per game. With six of their top eight tacklers back and a new coordinator, I expect to see further improvement. The obvious strength of the defense is in the secondary, where everyone of note is back. The expected starters are all upperclassmen and senior cornerback Traye Simmons is one of the best in the Big Ten, having earned 2nd team All-Big Ten selections last fall while snagging four picks. A recent poll of Big Ten players named him the league’s top cover corner! There was very little experience on hand entering last season so I expect a strong step forward from one of the conference’s best defensive backfields.

The D-line is much more of a concern for me. While the Gophers return three senior starters, they lose 1st team All-Big Ten end Willie VanDeSteeg, who had 10.5 sacks last fall. The worry about creating a pass rush is so acute that the Gophers are actually playing true freshman Ra’Shede Hageman on both sides of the ball at defensive end and tight end! However, while I don’t expect much in terms of rushing the quarterback, this group should at least be adequate slowing down the run. A solid group of linebackers should also help in that regard, led by senior Lee Campbell, who was the team’s leading tackler last fall. Along with fellow senior Simoni Lawrence, I think that Minnesota’s linebackers are going to provide a mobile deterrent to opposing teams on the ground. Overall, my major concern about this defense is that they’re going to have to blitz if they hope to get much pressure on the opposing quarterback. Despite that big question mark, I still think that the Golden Gophers are going to have a solid year defensively and should be improved.

Minnesota has a very commendable schedule this fall. Their opening three weeks begin by visiting Syracuse before welcoming Air Force and Cal to TCF Bank Stadium. This is one of the conference’s best lineups outside of Big Ten play and Brewster has done a lot of work in upgrading Minnesota’s future schedules. Their conference lineup is equally tough as they don’t play Michigan or Indiana this fall, which is unfortunate as neither team is expected to compete for the conference title. Instead, they have to travel to Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa and Northwestern! Minnesota also has the toughest 2nd half of any Big Ten team: at OSU and PSU, playing MSU, Illinois and South Dakota State at home and finishing up at rival Iowa. Brewster’s squad plays one of the country’s toughest schedules.

Overall, I think Minnesota will be a better team than last year. Weber has more experience in the system, Decker is still one of the best wide receivers in the country and they’ll benefit from a much improved run game. The defense is going to be very solid through the air and I think a lot of teams will struggle in their new outdoor home stadium. That said, Minnesota plays the hardest schedule of any Big Ten team and that will cost them some wins. Though the Gophers are a better team than last year, I don’t expect them to do any better than match last year’s 7-5 regular season record.

Minnesota Big Games: Sept. 12th vs. Air Force, Sept. 19th vs. Cal, Sept. 26th @ Northwestern, Oct. 3rd vs. Wisconsin, Oct. 17th @ PSU, Oct. 24th @ OSU, Oct. 31st vs. MSU, Nov. 7th vs. Illinois, Nov. 21st @ Iowa

Minnesota’s Strength:

The Gophers return ten starters on offense and eight on defense so there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Quarterback Adam Weber has turned into an efficient quarterback who completed over 62 percent of his pass attempts last year. With the return of receiver Eric Decker, Minnesota should once again be one of the best passing teams in the conference. Decker caught an amazing 84 passes for 1,074 yards and seven touchdowns last season and should be in store for a huge senior campaign. The lone loss on offense is tight end Jack Simmons. He was a good safety outlet for Weber, but he is certainly replaceable and it helps that other receivers like Ben Kuznia and Brandon Green are also back.

Minnesota’s Weakness:

What makes Weber and Decker’s numbers so impressive is the fact that there was virtually no ground game and the offensive line did not do a great job of protecting their quarterback. All the linemen are back and it was a pretty young group to begin with. The year of experience should help and the unit could be a strong point this season. If they are, then the ground game might not rank last in the conference. But that will also depend on DeLeon Eskridge. The 5-11 running back tallied 678 yards on the ground as a freshman last year, but only averaged 3.7 yards per carry. On a team that once was a factory for running backs, Eskridge has to do better. The biggest concern on the other side of the ball is the loss of defensive coordinator Ted Roof. The Gophers did a great job creating turnovers and, while they gave up quite a few yards, Minnesota would not make it easy for anybody to get into the end zone.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Golden Gophers:

Willie VanDeSteeg was a big part of the defense. He tallied 19 tackles-for-loss and a 10.5 sacks during his senior campaign. It was his pressure on the opposing backfield that created many of the Gophers turnovers. If the front four cannot replace VanDeSteeg, even the eight returning starters on defense could struggle. But, of course, the biggest news out of Minneapolis is the new outdoor stadium opening in the fall. It may not be a huge advantage for the Gophers quite yet, but it will be in November.

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