Military Bowl | Predictions & Pick

The Military Bowl Presented by Northrup Grunman

vs.

East Carolina (6-6) vs Maryland (8-4)
Wednesday, December 29, 2010 at 2:30 pm on ESPN
RFK Stadium – Washington, DC

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Initially I wasn’t sure about the hire of Ruffin McNeil to replace Skip Holtz for East Carolina.  As it turns out they have unexpectedly become one of the most exciting and explosive teams in the country.  Their defensive commitment under Holtz has disappeared but they are in pretty much every game and they are very fun to watch.  Overall the coach’s first season at the helm has been a success and I like their chances of beating Maryland.  Who knew that Dominique Davis had it in him?  At BC he was average at best but he has demonstrated he can really fling it and with the help of receivers Dwayne Harris and Lance Lewis the Pirates are averaging 38 points per game.  Only twice all season have they been held below 30 points and that was against ACC defensive powers North Carolina and Virginia Tech.  I think they will be able to score against the Terps but they will need their defense to perform as well to pull the upset in what is almost a home game for Maryland.

There is some weird stuff going on at Maryland.  They are forcing out the Fridge but at current they haven’t found a replacement (rumors persist about Mike Leach, McNeil’s old boss at Texas Tech).  It is even weirder because this is the Terrapins best season in years.  All of their four losses were to teams that will be playing in bowls as they played a more consistent brand of football than they have in some time.  This team is not very exciting to watch but Freshman QB Danny O’Brien has been playing mistake free football (only six interceptions) and in Torrey Smith he has one of the better playmaking receivers in the country.  When they play mistake free football they can compete with anybody but they struggle against teams with better athletes.  With everything going on it is difficult to predict what kind of effort we will get from these kids.

The Terps and Pirates have never met but they did have two common opponents during the regular season to use as a measuring stick.  Both teams beat NC State by nearly identical scores and both teams played Navy.  While Maryland was able to beat the Midshipmen by 3 ECU got absolutely bludgeoned losing 76-35 (not a typo).  The Pirates were hopeless against the option giving up more than 500 yards on the ground.  Unfortunately this game doesn’t tell us much as we already know ECU’s defense is pretty brutal and we know that the Terps are not exactly Navy when it comes to running the ball either.

Game Prediction: I love ECU for the upset here.  Their passing offense never stops and if they can get just a stop or two (with extra time to prepare) they can win a high scoring battle.  The higher the score goes the more it favours the Pirates.

Score Prediction:
East Carolina – 49
Maryland – 45

The spread is -7  for Maryland, too much for a team that is not that dynamic on offense…Love the Pirates to put up some serious points and win a shootout.  It is the only way they know how.

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Team records:

• East Carolina: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS
• Maryland: 8-4 SU, 7-4 ATS

East Carolina Pirates most recently:

• When playing in December are 5-4
• When playing on grass are 5-5
• After outgaining opponent are 6-4
• When playing outside the conference are 2-8

Maryland Terrapins most recently:

• When playing in December are 3-1
• When playing on grass are 6-4
• After being outgained are 5-5
• When playing outside the conference are 6-4

A few betting trends to consider:

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of East Carolina’s last 5 games
• East Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
• East Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
• Maryland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Maryland’s last 6 games