Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Middle Tennessee State 2008 Record: (5-7, 3-4)
Middle Tennessee State 2008 Bowl: none
Middle Tennessee State Coach: Rick Stockstill (17-20 at Middle Tennessee State, 17-20 overall)
Middle Tennessee State Offensive Coordinator: Tony Franklin
Middle Tennessee State Defensive Coordinator: Manny Diaz
Middle Tennessee State Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Phillip Tanner, RB, 714 yards
• Passing: Dwight Dasher, QB, 2,677 yards
• Receiving: Eldred King, WR, 598 yards
• Tackles: Danny Carmichael, LB, 75.5
• Sacks: Jamari Lattimore, DE, 3.5
• Interceptions: Jeremy Kellem, S, 2; Alex Suber, CB, 2

Notable Middle Tennessee State Returning Players: WR Malcolm Beyah, S Kevin Brown, WR Wes Caldwell, OT Mark Fisher, RB Desmond Gee, G Brandon McElroy, WR Patrick Honeycutt, G Jamal Lewis, DE Emmanuel Perez, DT Dwight Smith, C Mark Thompson, OT Mike Williams

Middle Tennessee State Key Losses: LB Lonnie Clemons, QB Joe Craddock, S Anthony Glover, LB Andrew Harrington, LB Ivon Hickman, DE Wes Hofacker, DT Trevor Jenkins, CB Ted Riley

The Raiders fought through a very bipolar season in 2008, losing six out of seven on the road but winning four out of five at home. They also finished with their worst conference record in Head Coach Rick Stockstill’s tenure at 3-4. However, it was a rebuilding year for the Blue Raiders and 16 starters return this fall to battle for a chance at a bowl game.

Offensively, the Blue Raiders bring back a conference-best 10 starters. Their only loss is at quarterback, where junior Dwight Dasher leads the group battling for the job. The good news is that the entire offensive line returns and should be much improved from last year’s team which only mustered 107 yards on the ground last year. That rushing attack should be much better this year as senior Phillip Tanner returns after rushing for over 700 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2008. The receiving corps is also very deep and returns last year’s top eight targets, though no one stands out individually. With all the experience back, I expect the offense to score more than last year’s paltry 22.8 points per game average.

On defense, three of the top four tacklers return, led by senior Danny Carmichael, who had 89 tackles last fall at middle linebacker. He’ll be counted on as the group’s only returning starter. The defensive line should be much stronger and won’t be replacing any all conference performers this year, unlike last year where they had to replace two 1 st team choices. In the secondary, three starters are back led by junior safeties Kevin Brown and Jeremy Kellem, who combined for 140 tackles last fall. This defense should be at least as good as last year’s solid unit which allowed less than 25 points per game.

The Blue Raider schedule is the biggest impediment to their ability to contend for the Sun Belt title. Keeping in mind their 1-6 road record last year, games at Troy, Florida Atlantic, UL-Monroe, and North Texas are quite daunting. So is their non-conference schedule, which includes trips to Clemson and Maryland. In short, the Blue Raiders’ opening schedule of four road games in the first five weeks is going to put them behind the eight ball early. Overall, Middle Tennessee State is a much improved team which should be solid on offense despite starting a new quarterback. Furthermore, their defense has a lot of experience back and will be better as well. This is probably the most talented team that Stockstill, now in his 4 th season, has fielded but their daunting schedule makes me have a lot of difficulty picking the Blue Raiders to compete for the Sun Belt Title or even secure bowl eligibility. A 6-6 record would be a tremendous achievement.

Middle Tennessee State Big Games: Sept. 26th @ North Texas, Oct. 6th @ Troy, Oct. 31st @ FAU, Nov. 21st vs. Arky State, Nov. 28th @ UL-Monroe

Middle Tennessee State’s Strength:

The optimism is due to the return of ten starters on the offensive side of the ball. The lone starter not returning is quarterback Joe Craddock. Craddock threw for 2,677 yards and 15 touchdowns during his senior campaign, but he is replaceable since Dwight Dasher is ready to take over the starting role. Dasher could be just as productive as Craddock with the return of all five starting offensive linemen. The group only gave up 15 sacks all of last season and Dasher is an elusive quarterback who will avoid sacks just as well as Craddock did in 2008. However, for the offense to be really good, Phillip Tanner and Desmond Gee need to get the ground game moving. The team ranked second to last in the conference last year rushing for just 106.92 per game. Tanner should have a big year now that the line is more experienced and Gee is a fine option for a change of pace back.

Middle Tennessee State’s Weakness:

The defense was pretty strong last year, but now they have to replace quite a few starters. The unit ranked third in the conference in sacks per game, but there was not one or two players who got into the backfield…it was a team effort. And with ends Emmanuel Perez and Jamari Lattimore returning, the front four should get more pressure on their own without having to rely on blitzes from the back seven. In fact, Lattimore was the star of the spring game, tallying three sacks, four tackles-for-loss and a 40-yard interception return for a touchdown. If he can keep that momentum going into the regular season, the front four will be in great shape. That will allow the linebackers to have more versatility and not be forced to blitz as often. Michael Carmichael is the star of the unit after leading the team with 75.5 tackles a year ago.

Our Prediction for the 2009 MTSU Blue Raiders:

Non-conference games against Clemson, Maryland and Mississippi State are not going to help the Blue Raiders become bowl eligible, but this is a team that has enough talent to win quite a few Sun Belt Conference games and maybe even give one of the big guys a scare early in the season.

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