Michigan Wolverines 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Michigan 2008 Record: (3-9, 2-6)
Michigan 2008 Bowl: none
Michigan Coach: Rich Rodriguez (3-9 at Michigan, 108-71-2 overall)
Michigan Offensive Coordinator: Calvin Magee
Michigan Defensive Coordinator: Greg Robinson
Michigan Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Brandon Minor, RB, 533 yards
• Passing: Nick Sheridan, QB, 613 yards
• Receiving: Martavious Odoms, WR, 443 yards
• Tackles: Obi Ezeh, LB, 98
• Sacks: Brandon Graham, DE, 10.0
• Interceptions: Stevie Brown, S, 2

Notable Michigan Returning Players: TE Kevin Koger, WR Greg Mathews, P Zoltan Mesko, C David Molk, G David Moosman, LB Jonas Mouton, OT Stephen Schilling, WR Darryl Stonum, Donovan Warren

Michigan Key Losses: S Brandon Harrison, DE Tim Jamison, DT Will Johnson, RB Sam McGuffie, DT Terrance Taylor, LB John Thompson, QB Steven Threet, CB Morgan Trent

2008 was the worst year in the history of Michigan football. After hiring Rich Rodriguez away from West Virginia, I was one of many people who openly questioned the decision to move away from the school’s traditions and embrace a coach from outside the Michigan coaching tree. As it turned out, the first year of the Rodriguez era was an unmitigated disaster as the Wolverines didn’t have the personnel to run his offense and the defense performed well below expectations. After another year of excessive turnover, including hiring a new defensive coordinator, can Rodriguez calm the waters in Ann Arbor and return Michigan to the postseason?

The offense brings back nearly everyone of note, with one major exception: quarterback. After no one ran the offense with any consistency last fall, Rodriguez claims that he plans on using as many as three quarterbacks! In all reality, true freshman Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson are going to get the majority of the snaps and that means another year of learning pains under center, though both are much better fits in Rodriguez’s spread system.

As for returning help, Michigan brings back their entire offensive line this season. That’s huge because there were a lot of mental errors last fall and I think another year of development will bring about a much steadier performance. The tailbacks are also solid, led by senior Brandon Minor, who scored 9 touchdowns last year. I think that Minor is a strong tailback but I have to disagree with a lot of assessments that claim he’s one of the conference’s best. Still, Michigan should definitely field an improved running game. At wide receiver, senior Greg Mathews and sophomore Martavious Odoms are the top two returning options from last year and I would expect an increase in productivity from both this fall considering the expected upgrade at quarterback. However, despite the presence of two quarterbacks who are much better fits for the spread, people still have to remember that both are true freshman throwing to a group of wideouts comprised primarily of sophomores. Michigan should have more luck running the football and I don’t think that their offense will be the comedy of errors that it played out to be as last fall but Michigan is still at least a year away from fielding an offense that can seriously be considered dangerous.

Defensively, Michigan was a big disappointment in 2008, allowing 29 points per game, good enough for 10 th in the conference! Many observers, including myself, expected the defense to carry the team to at least a 6-6 record last fall and it fell woefully short. With former Syracuse coach Greg Robinson on board as the new defensive coordinator and a host of young players expected to play a big role, 2009 could be another down season.

Michigan’s most talented player is senior defensive end Brandon Graham, who had 10 sacks last fall. Graham’s numbers will probably decrease this season because Michigan switched to a 3-4 defense in the spring but he will still be a major impact player and NFL prospect. The rest of the line is very young, though sophomore tackle Mike Martin was a freshman All-American last fall and has a lot of potential. I would expect a somewhat improved unit after 2008’s underwhelming showing.

The linebackers also look much better this fall. Juniors Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton were the team’s top two tacklers last year and combined for 174 stops. Along with senior Stevie Brown, who finished 4 th on the team in tackles at safety last fall and has since moved to linebacker, there is a lot of experience and speed and I expect a much improved showing. The secondary is by far the biggest concern on defense as only junior cornerback Donovan Warren returns. Expect a lot of underclassmen to see the field this fall. Michigan’s secondary will be talented but they will be very green. Overall, I expect the defense to show moderate improvement this season but the overwhelming youth is a big concern.

The schedule is a bit lighter than last season. Their annual rivalry with Notre Dame shifts to the Big House this year and the other non-conference games are against regional MAC teams instead of Utah. However, Michigan did lose to Toledo last fall so they had better every single opponent seriously this year. The Wolverines have eight home games overall. In Big Ten play, Minnesota and Northwestern rotate off the schedule. However, the Wolverines have a very tough road schedule which includes trips to MSU, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin. Throw in home matchups with Penn State and hated rival Ohio State and it is fair to say that Michigan has a tough road ahead.

Overall, I don’t expect 2009 to remotely approach the disastrous level that the Wolverines attained last fall. Michigan’s players have bought into the system much more than they did in 2008 and the lessons of a full year in the spread should help a lot. I think the Wolverines will be stronger on both lines and an improved rushing attack and rush defense appears to be in the cards. However, I have some serious questions about Michigan’s passing attack. Look, I know that Forcier and Robinson are talented young quarterbacks who fit Rodriguez’s system perfectly. However, they’re true freshmen and very few true freshmen can achieve the level of success that arch nemesis Terrelle Pryor did down the road in Columbus last year. Furthermore, Michigan looks vulnerable in the secondary and that could cost them some games. Finally, Michigan plays one of the conference’s toughest road schedules and travels to some of the toughest venues. That just makes life harder for their freshman quarterbacks.

The combination of a difficult schedule and a large dose of youth leads me to believe that Michigan is still at least a year away from fielding a truly competitive team. On top of that, I still think Rodriguez was the wrong fit in Ann Arbor and I have trouble believing that he’ll ever truly win over the fans unless he wins very quickly after last season’s disaster. That said, I expect Michigan to look and act much more like a real football team this season and at least achieve bowl eligibility. However, 6-6 or 7-5 is about the best possible outcome I can see from That School Up North and if Rodriguez fails to at least reach a bowl game or beat the Buckeyes this season then he will enter 2010 in serious jeopardy of losing his job. I’m afraid he used up all of his excuses last fall and the all time winningest program in college football history won’t settle for mediocrity for long. This is an enormous season for the Wolverines in more ways than one.

Michigan Big Games: Sept. 12th vs. Notre Dame, Oct. 3rd @ MSU, Oct. 10th @ Iowa, Oct. 24th vs. PSU, Oct. 31st @ Illinois, Nov. 14th @ Wisconsin, Nov. 21st vs. OSU

Michigan’s Strength:

But now everybody is back on the offensive side of the ball, except part-time starting quarterback Steven Threet. While sometimes that is not a good thing on a team that struggled so much moving the ball down the field, it is in this case. That extra year of experience running Coach Rodriguez’s offense cannot do anything but help. The influx of talent on the recruiting trail will also give the team a few more options that actually fit in the system. In the meantime, quarterback Nick Sheridan is not going to blow anybody away, but if he can keep the mistakes to a minimum, Michigan will win some games. The Wolverines have to be able to run the ball and that falls on Brandon Minor and Michael Shaw. The offensive line was mixed and matched last year, but everybody is back and once the staff finds the right combination, the ground game should flourish.

Michigan’s Weakness:

Players like Morgan Trent, Tim Jamison and Terrance Taylor were supposed to make Michigan’s defense good enough to make up for any short comings the offense had during the 2008 campaign. But the defense not only played worse than they were supposed to, but the offense rarely gave the defense much of an opportunity to do anything. And now the Wolverines have to move on without most of their stars from a year ago. However, linebacker Obi Ezeh is back after leading the team in tackles last season and end Brandon Graham tallied an incredible 20 tackles-for-loss and ten sacks. Those two are a good nucleus to build around, but Coach Rodriguez needs to find some youngsters who are ready to fill in some of the voids all over the defense.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Wolverines:

This season cannot be as bad as it was last year. Besides the win against Wisconsin and the usual victory in Minnesota, the Wolverines looked awful every week. Even if the defense takes a small step back, the offense simply has to take a step forward. The Wolverines schedule is full of home games and this team better be at least 2-2 after starting off against Western Michigan, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan and Indiana all in the friendly confines of the Big House. Even a 2-2 record will have some Michigan fans screaming at Coach Rodriguez.

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